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000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUTSY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUTSY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.
BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS
TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS. RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA. THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY-
CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS
UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE. LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS
WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT FVE. CAR, PQI, HUL AND BGR WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA THO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THESE SITES. TERMINALS WILL DIP INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.
BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS
TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS. RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA. THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY-
CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS
UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE. LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS
WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT FVE. CAR, PQI, HUL AND BGR WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA THO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THESE SITES. TERMINALS WILL DIP INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED THUS FAR. AS EXPECTED, CORES ARE NOT
GETTING VRY DEEP THO THERE WAS A POSSIBLE SMALL HAILER ALREADY NR
ALLAGASH. EXPECT THIS WL BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN UNLESS STORMS
CAN BCM MORE ORGANIZED. LACK OF SHEAR WL LKLY PREVENT THIS. TEMPS
ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HV ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP
BY ONE CATEGORY.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT FVE. CAR, PQI, HUL AND BGR WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA THO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THESE SITES. TERMINALS WILL DIP INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED THUS FAR. AS EXPECTED, CORES ARE NOT
GETTING VRY DEEP THO THERE WAS A POSSIBLE SMALL HAILER ALREADY NR
ALLAGASH. EXPECT THIS WL BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN UNLESS STORMS
CAN BCM MORE ORGANIZED. LACK OF SHEAR WL LKLY PREVENT THIS. TEMPS
ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HV ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP
BY ONE CATEGORY.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT FVE. CAR, PQI, HUL AND BGR WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA THO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THESE SITES. TERMINALS WILL DIP INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED THUS FAR. AS EXPECTED, CORES ARE NOT
GETTING VRY DEEP THO THERE WAS A POSSIBLE SMALL HAILER ALREADY NR
ALLAGASH. EXPECT THIS WL BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN UNLESS STORMS
CAN BCM MORE ORGANIZED. LACK OF SHEAR WL LKLY PREVENT THIS. TEMPS
ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HV ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP
BY ONE CATEGORY.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT FVE. CAR, PQI, HUL AND BGR WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA THO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THESE SITES. TERMINALS WILL DIP INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED THUS FAR. AS EXPECTED, CORES ARE NOT
GETTING VRY DEEP THO THERE WAS A POSSIBLE SMALL HAILER ALREADY NR
ALLAGASH. EXPECT THIS WL BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN UNLESS STORMS
CAN BCM MORE ORGANIZED. LACK OF SHEAR WL LKLY PREVENT THIS. TEMPS
ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HV ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP
BY ONE CATEGORY.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT FVE. CAR, PQI, HUL AND BGR WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA THO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THESE SITES. TERMINALS WILL DIP INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
CDFNT HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL NY AS OF 12Z AND WL TREK EAST THRU THE
DAY. UA RAOBS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND ALL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THESE RMN MEAGER AT BEST AS CONVECTION DVLPS.
HI-RES MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH DVLPMNT UNTIL CLOSER TO 19Z ACRS
EXTRM NW, THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS BY SVRL HRS. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG OVR THE WATERS TO RMN UNDER SRLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL
FRONT CAN SWEEP THRU LATE TONIGHT.

AS FOR STORMS THIS AFTN, EXPECTING TO SEE MARGINAL STORMS AT BEST
ACRS THE FAR NW AS BEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OUTRUN MAIN LINE, AS
NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT. PW VALUES ARE FCST TO BE ALMOST 200% OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YR THUS ANY STORM THAT DVLPS WL LKLY
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH FRZG LVLS SO HIGH IT APPEARS
THAT THREAT FOR HAIL IS THE LEAST LKLY WITH ANY STORM.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN
THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
CDFNT HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL NY AS OF 12Z AND WL TREK EAST THRU THE
DAY. UA RAOBS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND ALL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THESE RMN MEAGER AT BEST AS CONVECTION DVLPS.
HI-RES MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH DVLPMNT UNTIL CLOSER TO 19Z ACRS
EXTRM NW, THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS BY SVRL HRS. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG OVR THE WATERS TO RMN UNDER SRLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL
FRONT CAN SWEEP THRU LATE TONIGHT.

AS FOR STORMS THIS AFTN, EXPECTING TO SEE MARGINAL STORMS AT BEST
ACRS THE FAR NW AS BEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OUTRUN MAIN LINE, AS
NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT. PW VALUES ARE FCST TO BE ALMOST 200% OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YR THUS ANY STORM THAT DVLPS WL LKLY
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH FRZG LVLS SO HIGH IT APPEARS
THAT THREAT FOR HAIL IS THE LEAST LKLY WITH ANY STORM.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN
THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
712 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: GOT RID OF FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST AS SUNSHINE IS
HELPING TO BURN IT OFF. THE FOG ALONG THE COAST SHOULD LIFT AND
BURN OFF BY 12Z OR SO. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO THE FIT THE
LATEST CONDITIONS. TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS TO BACK UP TIMING BY AN
HOUR WITH THE 1ST SET OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN
THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
712 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: GOT RID OF FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST AS SUNSHINE IS
HELPING TO BURN IT OFF. THE FOG ALONG THE COAST SHOULD LIFT AND
BURN OFF BY 12Z OR SO. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO THE FIT THE
LATEST CONDITIONS. TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS TO BACK UP TIMING BY AN
HOUR WITH THE 1ST SET OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN
THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
712 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: GOT RID OF FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST AS SUNSHINE IS
HELPING TO BURN IT OFF. THE FOG ALONG THE COAST SHOULD LIFT AND
BURN OFF BY 12Z OR SO. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO THE FIT THE
LATEST CONDITIONS. TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS TO BACK UP TIMING BY AN
HOUR WITH THE 1ST SET OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.

A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN
THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN
THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS
FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE
POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK
AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW
FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT
WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX
REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING
ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON.

FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS
LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL
BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A
MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG
POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN
EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN
THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING
W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300504
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
104 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO PLAY FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS(20%) MOVING ACROSS THE W AND NW BY SUNRISE W/THE WARM
FRONT. THE HRRR 3KM MODEL WAS MATCHING WELL W/THE MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN QUEBEC. KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING W/THE DOWNEAST COAST SEEING
THE MOST DENSE FOG DUE TO SSE FLOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RH, SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULDN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER
BANGOR WILL FOG IN. IF THEY DO, THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NOT BE TOO DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300201
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES.

THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN AREAWIDE DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE, BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DENSER
FOG IS NEAR THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT
AS LAST NIGHT, BUT TIMING ITS ONSET RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND HOW
FAR INLAND IT SPREADS WILL BE TOUGH. VISIBILITY BEGINNING TO GO
DOWN PER OFFSHORE BUOY, EASTPORT IS DOWN TO 5SM VISIBILITY, AND
OTHER COASTAL SITES ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO
IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GETTING STARTED. EXPECT THE COAST TO BECOME
SOCKED IN, WITH FOG POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RH, SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULDN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER
BANGOR WILL FOG IN. IF THEY DO, THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NOT BE TOO DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300201
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES.

THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN AREAWIDE DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE, BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DENSER
FOG IS NEAR THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT
AS LAST NIGHT, BUT TIMING ITS ONSET RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND HOW
FAR INLAND IT SPREADS WILL BE TOUGH. VISIBILITY BEGINNING TO GO
DOWN PER OFFSHORE BUOY, EASTPORT IS DOWN TO 5SM VISIBILITY, AND
OTHER COASTAL SITES ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO
IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GETTING STARTED. EXPECT THE COAST TO BECOME
SOCKED IN, WITH FOG POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RH, SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULDN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER
BANGOR WILL FOG IN. IF THEY DO, THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NOT BE TOO DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300201
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES.

THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN AREAWIDE DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE, BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DENSER
FOG IS NEAR THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT
AS LAST NIGHT, BUT TIMING ITS ONSET RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND HOW
FAR INLAND IT SPREADS WILL BE TOUGH. VISIBILITY BEGINNING TO GO
DOWN PER OFFSHORE BUOY, EASTPORT IS DOWN TO 5SM VISIBILITY, AND
OTHER COASTAL SITES ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO
IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GETTING STARTED. EXPECT THE COAST TO BECOME
SOCKED IN, WITH FOG POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RH, SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULDN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER
BANGOR WILL FOG IN. IF THEY DO, THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NOT BE TOO DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300201
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES.

THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN AREAWIDE DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE, BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DENSER
FOG IS NEAR THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT
AS LAST NIGHT, BUT TIMING ITS ONSET RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND HOW
FAR INLAND IT SPREADS WILL BE TOUGH. VISIBILITY BEGINNING TO GO
DOWN PER OFFSHORE BUOY, EASTPORT IS DOWN TO 5SM VISIBILITY, AND
OTHER COASTAL SITES ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO
IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GETTING STARTED. EXPECT THE COAST TO BECOME
SOCKED IN, WITH FOG POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RH, SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULDN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER
BANGOR WILL FOG IN. IF THEY DO, THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NOT BE TOO DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
714 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF COASTAL FOG
JUST A FEW HOURS, AS IT GOT A LOT DRIER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE FOG TO
REDEVELOP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER FOR THE FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KBHB THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 292314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
714 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF COASTAL FOG
JUST A FEW HOURS, AS IT GOT A LOT DRIER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE FOG TO
REDEVELOP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER FOR THE FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KBHB THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291935
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS LATEST
UPDATE. STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP ON RADAR JUST ON
GRAY`S SIDE OF THE CWA BORDER, SO HAVE LEFT OUR CURRENT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING ALONE. OTHERWISE, MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
SKY AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL
AREAS THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH
TODAY BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS
CORRECT MOSG25 FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS LATEST
UPDATE. STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP ON RADAR JUST ON
GRAY`S SIDE OF THE CWA BORDER, SO HAVE LEFT OUR CURRENT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING ALONE. OTHERWISE, MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
SKY AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL
AREAS THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH
TODAY BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS
CORRECT MOSG25 FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291404
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS, AS THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THAT AREA, THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND SB CAPES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG (THE NAM`S OVERDONE YET AGAIN WITH
1000+ CAPE), HAVE ALSO ADDED THUNDER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL
AREAS THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH
TODAY BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS
CORRECT MOSG25 FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291404
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS, AS THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THAT AREA, THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND SB CAPES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG (THE NAM`S OVERDONE YET AGAIN WITH
1000+ CAPE), HAVE ALSO ADDED THUNDER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL
AREAS THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH
TODAY BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS
CORRECT MOSG25 FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0640 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

EXPECT PATCH FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECT MOSG25 FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0640 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

EXPECT PATCH FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECT MOSG25 FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290838
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
438 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT PATCH FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECT MOSG25 FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290838
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
438 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT PATCH FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECT MOSG25 FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290424
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1220 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.


WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290424
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1220 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.


WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290424
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1220 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.


WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290424
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1220 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.


WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
ALL SHOWERS (AND STORMS) HAVE DIED OFF, AND WE ARE LEFT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A STALLED BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM NEAR HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET TO DOVER FOXCROFT, WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT WEST BREEZE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE JUICIER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, EXCEPT WIDESPREAD FOG RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WOODS WHERE WITH THE DRIER AIR
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, TEMPS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
ALL SHOWERS (AND STORMS) HAVE DIED OFF, AND WE ARE LEFT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A STALLED BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM NEAR HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET TO DOVER FOXCROFT, WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT WEST BREEZE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE JUICIER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, EXCEPT WIDESPREAD FOG RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WOODS WHERE WITH THE DRIER AIR
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, TEMPS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
ALL SHOWERS (AND STORMS) HAVE DIED OFF, AND WE ARE LEFT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A STALLED BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM NEAR HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET TO DOVER FOXCROFT, WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT WEST BREEZE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE JUICIER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, EXCEPT WIDESPREAD FOG RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WOODS WHERE WITH THE DRIER AIR
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, TEMPS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. A BIT NERVOUS THAT FOG COULD
IMPACT KHUL, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
OR WORSE KBHB AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT KBGR, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282329
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
729 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
725 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT
IN OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINING. ADDED PATCHY FOG A
BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND A MUCH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVELS PERSISTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BNDRY MVS THRU MOST OF CWA THIS EVNG WITH DRY AIR RAPIDLY
MVG IN BHND. MAY SEE JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN
DOWNEAST FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVNG BFR ATMOS STABILIZES ONCE AGAIN.
COASTAL ZONES WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
TONIGHT AS LOW-LVLS ARE STABLE PER POPUP SKEW-T AND SPC`S MESO
PAGE. EXPECT AS AREA OF CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH IT WL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH ALL TOGETHER.

FOR THE OVRNGT SRLY WINDS WL BRING ANOTHER MARINE LYR INTO COASTAL
AREAS AFT MIDNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WSW WINDS WL NOT
MIX OUT FOG LYR UNTIL AFT 12Z THO ABOUT AN EQUAL MIX BRINGS BNDRY
CLR THRU BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW, HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG THRU 12Z
WED AS MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOO QUICK TO MV BNDRY THRU.

DRY AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NORTH IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE L50S. THIS WL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS FM THE M50S ACRS THE CROWN
AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER IN THE NORTH WOODS, TO ARND 60 IN DOWNEAST.

FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IFR LIKELY KBHB AGAIN
TONIGHT AS FOG ROLLS ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
AT KBHB, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 282329
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
729 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
725 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT
IN OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINING. ADDED PATCHY FOG A
BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND A MUCH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVELS PERSISTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BNDRY MVS THRU MOST OF CWA THIS EVNG WITH DRY AIR RAPIDLY
MVG IN BHND. MAY SEE JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN
DOWNEAST FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVNG BFR ATMOS STABILIZES ONCE AGAIN.
COASTAL ZONES WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
TONIGHT AS LOW-LVLS ARE STABLE PER POPUP SKEW-T AND SPC`S MESO
PAGE. EXPECT AS AREA OF CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH IT WL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH ALL TOGETHER.

FOR THE OVRNGT SRLY WINDS WL BRING ANOTHER MARINE LYR INTO COASTAL
AREAS AFT MIDNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WSW WINDS WL NOT
MIX OUT FOG LYR UNTIL AFT 12Z THO ABOUT AN EQUAL MIX BRINGS BNDRY
CLR THRU BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW, HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG THRU 12Z
WED AS MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOO QUICK TO MV BNDRY THRU.

DRY AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NORTH IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE L50S. THIS WL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS FM THE M50S ACRS THE CROWN
AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER IN THE NORTH WOODS, TO ARND 60 IN DOWNEAST.

FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR KHUL NORTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IFR LIKELY KBHB AGAIN
TONIGHT AS FOG ROLLS ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
AT KBHB, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BNDRY MVS THRU MOST OF CWA THIS EVNG WITH DRY AIR RAPIDLY
MVG IN BHND. MAY SEE JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN
DOWNEAST FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVNG BFR ATMOS STABILIZES ONCE AGAIN.
COASTAL ZONES WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
TONIGHT AS LOW-LVLS ARE STABLE PER POPUP SKEW-T AND SPC`S MESO PAGE.
EXPECT AS AREA OF CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH IT WL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH
ALL TOGETHER.

FOR THE OVRNGT SRLY WINDS WL BRING ANOTHER MARINE LYR INTO COASTAL
AREAS AFT MIDNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WSW WINDS WL NOT
MIX OUT FOG LYR UNTIL AFT 12Z THO ABOUT AN EQUAL MIX BRINGS BNDRY
CLR THRU BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW, HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG THRU 12Z
WED AS MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOO QUICK TO MV BNDRY THRU.

DRY AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NORTH IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE L50S. THIS WL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS FM THE M50S ACRS THE CROWN
AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER IN THE NORTH WOODS, TO ARND 60 IN DOWNEAST.

FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING BGR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR AT TERMINAL. BHB WILL START OFF AT
VFR THEN DIMINISH TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BNDRY MVS THRU MOST OF CWA THIS EVNG WITH DRY AIR RAPIDLY
MVG IN BHND. MAY SEE JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN
DOWNEAST FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVNG BFR ATMOS STABILIZES ONCE AGAIN.
COASTAL ZONES WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
TONIGHT AS LOW-LVLS ARE STABLE PER POPUP SKEW-T AND SPC`S MESO PAGE.
EXPECT AS AREA OF CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH IT WL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH
ALL TOGETHER.

FOR THE OVRNGT SRLY WINDS WL BRING ANOTHER MARINE LYR INTO COASTAL
AREAS AFT MIDNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WSW WINDS WL NOT
MIX OUT FOG LYR UNTIL AFT 12Z THO ABOUT AN EQUAL MIX BRINGS BNDRY
CLR THRU BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW, HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG THRU 12Z
WED AS MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOO QUICK TO MV BNDRY THRU.

DRY AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NORTH IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE L50S. THIS WL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS FM THE M50S ACRS THE CROWN
AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER IN THE NORTH WOODS, TO ARND 60 IN DOWNEAST.

FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING BGR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR AT TERMINAL. BHB WILL START OFF AT
VFR THEN DIMINISH TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281752
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...
ATMOS HAS DESTABILIZED UNDER SUNNY SKIES, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GREENVILLE TO DANFORTH LINE PER LATEST MESO PAGE WITH CAPES
RANGING BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING SEA
BREEZE PUSHING NWD THRU BANGOR AT THIS TIME. QUICK UPDATE NEEDED TO
MAX TEMPS FOR TDA A FEW HRS AGO OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN GIVEN AMNT OF
INSTABILITY THO BEST 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING BGR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR AT TERMINAL. BHB WILL START OFF AT
VFR THEN DIMINISH TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281752
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...
ATMOS HAS DESTABILIZED UNDER SUNNY SKIES, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GREENVILLE TO DANFORTH LINE PER LATEST MESO PAGE WITH CAPES
RANGING BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING SEA
BREEZE PUSHING NWD THRU BANGOR AT THIS TIME. QUICK UPDATE NEEDED TO
MAX TEMPS FOR TDA A FEW HRS AGO OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN GIVEN AMNT OF
INSTABILITY THO BEST 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING BGR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR AT TERMINAL. BHB WILL START OFF AT
VFR THEN DIMINISH TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281752
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...
ATMOS HAS DESTABILIZED UNDER SUNNY SKIES, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GREENVILLE TO DANFORTH LINE PER LATEST MESO PAGE WITH CAPES
RANGING BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING SEA
BREEZE PUSHING NWD THRU BANGOR AT THIS TIME. QUICK UPDATE NEEDED TO
MAX TEMPS FOR TDA A FEW HRS AGO OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN GIVEN AMNT OF
INSTABILITY THO BEST 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING BGR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR AT TERMINAL. BHB WILL START OFF AT
VFR THEN DIMINISH TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281752
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...
ATMOS HAS DESTABILIZED UNDER SUNNY SKIES, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GREENVILLE TO DANFORTH LINE PER LATEST MESO PAGE WITH CAPES
RANGING BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING SEA
BREEZE PUSHING NWD THRU BANGOR AT THIS TIME. QUICK UPDATE NEEDED TO
MAX TEMPS FOR TDA A FEW HRS AGO OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN GIVEN AMNT OF
INSTABILITY THO BEST 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING BGR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR AT TERMINAL. BHB WILL START OFF AT
VFR THEN DIMINISH TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281336
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE...
ILL-DEFINED SFC TROF LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AT THIS TIME BASED ON LWR DWPTS ALONG WITH 3 HR PRESSURE
CHG GRADIENT. EXPECT THIS BNDRY WL SLIP SOUTH THRU THE COURSE OF
THE DAY LKLY ENTERING NRN MAINE BY NOON, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF
ANY THREAT FOR STORMS OVR THE FAR NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THIS
BNDRY CAN SLIP WL DETERMINE WHERE STORMS MAY DVLP.

PRIOR RUN OF HRRR SHOWED ESSENTIALLY NIL FOR CONVECTION TDA WHILE
THE LATEST RUN IS NOW SHOWING ISOLD ECHOES DVLPNG DOWNEAST AFT 17Z
THIS AFTN, WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS NOW COMING ON BOARD WITH.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING 500 J ACRS CNTRL SXNS OF CWA
WITH CIN OVR THE CROWN AND ALSO DOWNEAST IN WAKE OF STORMS AND
LINGERING CLD CVR.

STILL EXPECTING MOST OF CONVECTION TO EXIST MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BANGOR-DANFORTH LINE THIS AFTN THO THIS WL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
BNDRY CAN SLIP THRU. PROGGED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WL BE
MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS THIS AFTN WITH CAPES APPCHG 1000 J/KG IN
DOWNEAST AREAS. TWEAKED POP, WX AND SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH JUST ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281015
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0605 EDT: HAVE ADDED HIGHER POPS AND ADDED THUNDER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




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