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000
FXUS61 KCAR 212238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL
AREAS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NORTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY WIND HAS
KEPT THE BLYR MIXED. BACKED OFF ON THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WELL W OF THE
CWA. LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST PER THE 21Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS MOVING NNE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. COOLING
CLOUD TOPS PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD SUGGEST SOME
CONVECTION, ELEVATED AT BEST. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS
ONLY GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE
MAY INCUR SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF
THE TWO SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/JORDAN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN












000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN











000
FXUS61 KCAR 211605
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WE NEEDED TO RAISE HI
TEMPS A FEW DEG ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS MOVG INTO NRN ME FROM QB PROV CAN...
SO THE RATE OF TEMP RISE SHOULD SLOW OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THESE CHGS. OTHERWISE...
SKY AND POP GRIDS WERE UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211605
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WE NEEDED TO RAISE HI
TEMPS A FEW DEG ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS MOVG INTO NRN ME FROM QB PROV CAN...
SO THE RATE OF TEMP RISE SHOULD SLOW OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THESE CHGS. OTHERWISE...
SKY AND POP GRIDS WERE UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 211358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND POPS WERE UPDATED FOR TDY INTO MON.
SAT...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS CONT TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF TWO AREAS
OF RNFL TO EVOLVE...ONE AREA FOR DOWNEAST AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN PTN OF THE RN SHIELD FOR LATE TODAY THRU TNGT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES. THE OTHER AREA OF SHWRS WILL AFFECT NW PTNS OF THE FA
LATER TNGT...AND THEN MOVG E TO AFFECT MSLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
MON MORN.

MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BECOME PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA THIS MORN...WITH SCT SHWRS SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALL OF
THESE TRENDS ALG WITH LATEST OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS UPDATE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THEN PREV XPCTD TDY (WHICH IS AN
OPPOSITE TREND FROM YSTDY ATTM)...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT WE NEED TO BUMP UP HI TEMPS THIS AFTN FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND POPS WERE UPDATED FOR TDY INTO MON.
SAT...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS CONT TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF TWO AREAS
OF RNFL TO EVOLVE...ONE AREA FOR DOWNEAST AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN PTN OF THE RN SHIELD FOR LATE TODAY THRU TNGT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES. THE OTHER AREA OF SHWRS WILL AFFECT NW PTNS OF THE FA
LATER TNGT...AND THEN MOVG E TO AFFECT MSLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
MON MORN.

MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BECOME PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA THIS MORN...WITH SCT SHWRS SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALL OF
THESE TRENDS ALG WITH LATEST OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS UPDATE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THEN PREV XPCTD TDY (WHICH IS AN
OPPOSITE TREND FROM YSTDY ATTM)...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT WE NEED TO BUMP UP HI TEMPS THIS AFTN FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER









000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 210653
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SCA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS 4 TO 5 FT.  THE SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE SOME LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AND POSSIBLY DROP THE ADVISORY WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.  ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO FIT BETTER W/THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE COUPLED W/AN UPPER IMPULSE AS SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE LAST 3 HRS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES W/THE MINS BEING HIT THIS EVENING.


THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO FIT BETTER W/THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE COUPLED W/AN UPPER IMPULSE AS SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE LAST 3 HRS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES W/THE MINS BEING HIT THIS EVENING.


THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201944
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SATELLITE AND OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND
THERE OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN













000
FXUS61 KCAR 201944
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SATELLITE AND OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND
THERE OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN














000
FXUS61 KCAR 201648
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE... A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING SEEN
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
WHAT IS SEEN ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE SEEING A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
DID OPT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF SLIGHT POPS FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201648
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE... A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING SEEN
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
WHAT IS SEEN ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE SEEING A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
DID OPT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF SLIGHT POPS FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING INDICATED BY SATELLITE. THIS BRINGS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WSR-88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW
RETURNS HOWEVER MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN VIRGA AS WE STILL HAVE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE FA HAS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING INDICATED BY SATELLITE. THIS BRINGS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WSR-88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW
RETURNS HOWEVER MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN VIRGA AS WE STILL HAVE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE FA HAS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201033
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
632 AM...SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP THE FROST ADVISORY
AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND ANY FROST DAMAGE
HAS HAPPENED. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201033
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
632 AM...SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP THE FROST ADVISORY
AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND ANY FROST DAMAGE
HAS HAPPENED. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200719
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING
RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE HATTERAS COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
     031-032.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
  THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200719
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING
RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE HATTERAS COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
     031-032.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
  THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 200426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1226 AM...TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOUR
ACROSS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ARE A BIT COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE. THE COOLEST SPOTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT ARE IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON...PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES WHERE THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH MOST SHOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST
WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA.
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-
     032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/FOISY
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1226 AM...TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOUR
ACROSS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ARE A BIT COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE. THE COOLEST SPOTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT ARE IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON...PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES WHERE THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH MOST SHOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST
WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA.
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-
     032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/FOISY
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/FOISY






000
FXUS61 KCAR 200249
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1049 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200249
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1049 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 200034
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
834 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
THE HIGH MOVING EAST A RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL BE
EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY AND TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200034
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
834 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
THE HIGH MOVING EAST A RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL BE
EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY AND TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN OUT.
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
LEADS TO TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT BECAUSE
RADITATIONAL COOLING WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZED GIVEN THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HOWEVER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
WOULD SUPPORT HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALSO
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW GIVEN THIS TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH COASTAL
AREAS IN THE IN THE LOW 40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FORECAST EVENING SHIFT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING AND COULD NEED
TO DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SITUATION
PLAYS OUT. SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF MVFR FOR
SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR MOST AREAS
LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER LATER SATURDAY SEAS
AND WINDS DO INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS.


SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...JORDAN/FOISY
MARINE...JORDAN/FOISY









000
FXUS61 KCAR 191946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN OUT.
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
LEADS TO TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT BECAUSE
RADITATIONAL COOLING WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZED GIVEN THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HOWEVER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
WOULD SUPPORT HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALSO
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW GIVEN THIS TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH COASTAL
AREAS IN THE IN THE LOW 40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FORECAST EVENING SHIFT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING AND COULD NEED
TO DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SITUATION
PLAYS OUT. SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF MVFR FOR
SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR MOST AREAS
LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER LATER SATURDAY SEAS
AND WINDS DO INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS.


SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...JORDAN/FOISY
MARINE...JORDAN/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 191638
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS THE STORY FOR TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. UPDATED WITH CURRENT TRENDS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S...THE
AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10AM. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...JORDAN/MCW/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191638
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS THE STORY FOR TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. UPDATED WITH CURRENT TRENDS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S...THE
AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10AM. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...JORDAN/MCW/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191405
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE... COOL START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER
MUCH OF THE REGION HAS WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THIS HOUR. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST BRINGING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FA TODAY. UPDATED WITH CURRENT TRENDS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S...THE
AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10AM. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...JORDAN/MCW/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FROST /FREEZE HEADLINES AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOW OCCURRED AND ANY FROST/FREEZE DAMAGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.

PUSHED UP LOWS FOR TONIGHT TO THE 2-3AM TIME FRAME WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A GOOD LLJ. THIS ALSO
PROMPTED A REFINEMENT IN THE FROST FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOST
OF THE FROST SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOULTON AND THE DOWN EAST COAST.
THE BEST FROST SETUP APPEARS TO BE FOR INTERIOR WASHINGTON
COUNTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER FROST ADVISORIES FOR
ALL SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
20S...THE AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FROST /FREEZE HEADLINES AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOW OCCURRED AND ANY FROST/FREEZE DAMAGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.

PUSHED UP LOWS FOR TONIGHT TO THE 2-3AM TIME FRAME WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A GOOD LLJ. THIS ALSO
PROMPTED A REFINEMENT IN THE FROST FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOST
OF THE FROST SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOULTON AND THE DOWN EAST COAST.
THE BEST FROST SETUP APPEARS TO BE FOR INTERIOR WASHINGTON
COUNTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER FROST ADVISORIES FOR
ALL SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
20S...THE AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190949
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
548 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
PUSHED UP LOWS FOR TONIGHT TO THE 2-3AM TIME FRAME WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A GOOD LLJ. THIS ALSO
PROMPTED A REFINEMENT IN THE FROST FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOST
OF THE FROST SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOULTON AND THE DOWN EAST COAST.
THE BEST FROST SETUP APPEARS TO BE FOR INTERIOR WASHINGTON
COUNTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER FROST ADVISORIES FOR
ALL SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
20S...THE AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190949
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
548 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
PUSHED UP LOWS FOR TONIGHT TO THE 2-3AM TIME FRAME WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A GOOD LLJ. THIS ALSO
PROMPTED A REFINEMENT IN THE FROST FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOST
OF THE FROST SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOULTON AND THE DOWN EAST COAST.
THE BEST FROST SETUP APPEARS TO BE FOR INTERIOR WASHINGTON
COUNTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER FROST ADVISORIES FOR
ALL SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
20S...THE AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190754
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
20S...THE AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190754
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
20S...THE AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS TODAY WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S...THE AIR
WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB












000
FXUS61 KCAR 190645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS TODAY WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S...THE AIR
WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION
INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN
EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE
CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR
TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH
A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY
INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN
IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR
LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND
CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.  MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR MONDAY.  POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA OVER WATERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. GUSTS THIS
MORNING TO 25 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB











000
FXUS61 KCAR 190404
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1204 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. HAVE
NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING OR FROST
ADVISORY AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...WITH AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER TO MID 30S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CRISP FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WE`LL SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THEN
SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY ADVANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT SAID WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE
CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NW AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS GFS AND CANADIAN WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT RIDES UP THE COAST. THE RESPECTIVE
12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW KEEP THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTING WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE DOES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO NW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL BE A LIGHT EVENT CHANCE
TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THEN TEMPS GO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MOST AREAS STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY COULD SEE MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS...OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 5
FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUTER WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCW
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MCW/JORDAN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MCW/JORDAN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190404
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1204 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. HAVE
NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING OR FROST
ADVISORY AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...WITH AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER TO MID 30S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CRISP FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WE`LL SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THEN
SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY ADVANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT SAID WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE
CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NW AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS GFS AND CANADIAN WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT RIDES UP THE COAST. THE RESPECTIVE
12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW KEEP THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTING WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE DOES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO NW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL BE A LIGHT EVENT CHANCE
TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THEN TEMPS GO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MOST AREAS STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY COULD SEE MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS...OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 5
FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUTER WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCW
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MCW/JORDAN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MCW/JORDAN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190227
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1027 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. HAVE
NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING OR FROST
ADVISORY AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...WITH AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER TO MID 30S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CRISP FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WE`LL SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THEN
SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY ADVANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT SAID WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE
CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NW AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS GFS AND CANADIAN WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT RIDES UP THE COAST. THE RESPECTIVE
12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW KEEP THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTING WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE DOES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO NW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL BE A LIGHT EVENT CHANCE
TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THEN TEMPS GO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MOST AREAS STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY COULD SEE MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS...OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 5
FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUTER WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-
     031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/JORDAN
MARINE...NORCROSS/JORDAN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
816 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
ANY REMAINING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE.
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
NORTH...WITH AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER TO MID 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER
30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO ADJUSTING
HEADLINES...HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CRISP FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WE`LL SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THEN
SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY ADVANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT SAID WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE
CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NW AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS GFS AND CANADIAN WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT RIDES UP THE COAST. THE RESPECTIVE
12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW KEEP THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTING WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE DOES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO NW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL BE A LIGHT EVENT CHANCE
TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THEN TEMPS GO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MOST AREAS STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY COULD SEE MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS...OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 5
FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUTER WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/JORDAN
MARINE...NORCROSS/JORDAN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
816 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
ANY REMAINING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE.
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
NORTH...WITH AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER TO MID 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER
30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO ADJUSTING
HEADLINES...HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CRISP FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WE`LL SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THEN
SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY ADVANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT SAID WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE
CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NW AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS GFS AND CANADIAN WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT RIDES UP THE COAST. THE RESPECTIVE
12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW KEEP THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTING WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE DOES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO NW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL BE A LIGHT EVENT CHANCE
TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THEN TEMPS GO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MOST AREAS STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY COULD SEE MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS...OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 5
FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUTER WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     011-031-032.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/JORDAN
MARINE...NORCROSS/JORDAN








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