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000
FXUS61 KCAR 301847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
247 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY AND WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY IS THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT CARIBOU.  THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20 DAYS WAS SET ON
MARCH 1-20, 2010.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
247 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY AND WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY IS THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT CARIBOU.  THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20 DAYS WAS SET ON
MARCH 1-20, 2010.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301632
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1232 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED HRLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOUT TWO DEGREES OR SO IN
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
935 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED HRLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300838
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
438 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE: WE NOTED SOME HI CLDNSS SPREADING INTO SRN PTNS OF
OUR FA FROM SRN QB AND NW NEW ENG. HI LVL RH PROGS FROM THE 18Z
GFS INDICATE THAT THESE CLDS ARE LIKELY TO CONT THRU MOST OF THE
NGT...SO WE ADDED JUST ENOUGH CLD CVR TO RESULT IN MCLR SKIES OVR
THE S HLF OF THE FA RATHER THAN CLR...WITH MOST OF THIS CLD CVR
TRANSLUCENT CI/CS. OTHERWISE...OBSVD 9 PM TEMPS WERE USED TO
ADJUST FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS POSTED AT
5-6AM SAT.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...VJN/VJN
MARINE...VJN/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292224
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO CURRENT FCST IN THE NEAR TERM.
LATEST OBSVD TEMPS WERE USED TO ADJUST FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT TO
UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS POSTED AT 5-6AM SAT.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...VJN/VJN
MARINE...VJN/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT THE DRIER WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANTBLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN/T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291750 AAD
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
150 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1238PM UPDATE--
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF EARLIER UPDATES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS /THE LATTER OF THESE CHANGES IS PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS/. WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD BASED ON
THESE TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291750 AAD
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
150 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1238PM UPDATE--
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF EARLIER UPDATES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS /THE LATTER OF THESE CHANGES IS PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS/. WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD BASED ON
THESE TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291639 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1238PM UPDATE--
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF EARLIER UPDATES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS /THE LATTER OF THESE CHANGES IS PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS/. WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD BASED ON
THESE TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291440 AAB
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1040 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290958
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290958
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290850
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
450 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290850
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
450 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290355
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1155 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND
SKYCON...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290124
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
924 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 282339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND WINDS. WINDS
AND GUSTS ACROSS NRN ME STILL HOLDING. EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL
DROP SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 282339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND WINDS. WINDS
AND GUSTS ACROSS NRN ME STILL HOLDING. EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL
DROP SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO SET THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO SET THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MENTIONED SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. INCORPORATED
MOST CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

PREV DISCUSSION
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
CANADA TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY.
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP
MIXING UP TO 7000 FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY.
TONIGHT WILL THEN BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PER THE STATE OF MAINE FOREST SERVICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR/WEB CAMS/SPOTTER REPORTS SHOW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTH EAST
AROOSTOOK. HAVE UPDATED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THIS AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7000
FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT WILL THEN
BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN ACROSS OUR REGION AND FINE FUELS HAVE BECOME VERY DRY.
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281023
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:20 AM UPDATE...MODIFIED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN WESTERN AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST AND
DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING,
THEN THIN OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNEAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7000
FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT WILL THEN
BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN ACROSS OUR REGION AND FINE FUELS HAVE BECOME VERY DRY.
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7000
FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT WILL THEN
BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN ACROSS OUR REGION AND FINE FUELS HAVE BECOME VERY DRY.
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWED SOME RETURNS W/25 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
NE AROOSTOOK AND N WASHINGTON COUNTY. HAD A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
IN THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AREA THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% ACROSS THESE AREAS UP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN THINGS WIND DOWN AS THE BEST CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS E AND SKIES START TO CLEAR. NW WINDS STAYING UP 10-15 MPH
BUT WILL DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT W/A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP.
ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS SOME LOCALES
BACK ACROSS NW MAINE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THESE AREAS
COULD EASILY 15-20 DEGREES BY MORNING. LOOKING FOR CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS SEEING MID 20S. BANGOR WILL BE FLIRTING W/A RECORD
LOW AS 23F IS THE RECORD LOW FOR APRIL 28TH.

FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WNW WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH W/GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. DESPITE THE COLD
TEMPS, RHS WILL BE VERY LOW(AOB 20%) LEADING TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND DRYING OUT THE FINE FUELS. COORDINATED W/THE MAINE
FOREST SERVICE THIS EVENING AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY. COULDN`T RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW
IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE REST OF
NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS AN UPR TROF MOVES AWAY TOWARD GREENLAND, SKIES WILL CLEAR AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT TERM AS THE SFC HIGH
AND A SHALLOW UPR RIDGE CONTROL THE WEATHER. THU NIGHT IS LIKELY
TO BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH
PARTS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS GETTING BELOW 15F. HIGHS BELOW NRML
ON FRI WILL MOVE CLOSE TO NRML ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MESSY AND UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG
TERM. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPR TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SUN
NIGHT THRU TUE. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN, WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE
AMONG GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA TO A LOW PASSING RIGHT OVER THE CWA WITH
AMPLE RAIN, AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN INVERTED TROF FROM SRN NEW
ENG TO THE ST. LAWR VLY WHILE OTHERS DON`T. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD
IN GUIDANCE AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, GENERALLY TOOK
SUPERBLEND POPS AND JUST TONED THEM DOWN A BIT AND MADE MINOR
OTHER TWEAKS. ALL POPS STAY AT 50 PCT OR LESS FOR NOW, UNTIL MORE
CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS. TEMPS FOR NOW ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMS, BUT THIS WILL LKLY CHANGE AS THE OTHER
ASPECTS OF THE FCST EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG ON CALM, CLEAR NIGHTS,
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM:
CURRENTLY FCST ENTIRE SHORT TERM TO HAVE CONDITIONS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, BUT WILL MONITOR BORDERLINE N-NE WIND GUSTS THU NIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 272324
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
724 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
717 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM PER THE OBS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NAM12 GUIDANCE DOING A FINE JOB W/THE HANDLING OF THE
CLOUDS. RADAR INDICATED LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA BUT MOST OF THIS IS VIRGA W/AIRMASS BEING SO BELOW 700MBS.
SOUNDINGS SHOWED COLUMN TO MOISTEN LATER THIS EVENING W/SOME
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY TONIGHT W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. KEPT POPS WHERE
THEY ARE FOR NOW W/20-30%. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK RATHER QUICKLY
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. RECORD LOWS WERE HIT THIS MORNING IN
BANGOR AND HOULTON. THIS COULD OCCUR AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND BROUGHT
WINDS UP BASED ON THE LAST 3 HR TREND SHOWING STRONGER WINDS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY. COULDN`T RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW
IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE REST OF
NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS AN UPR TROF MOVES AWAY TOWARD GREENLAND, SKIES WILL CLEAR AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT TERM AS THE SFC HIGH
AND A SHALLOW UPR RIDGE CONTROL THE WEATHER. THU NIGHT IS LIKELY
TO BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH
PARTS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS GETTING BELOW 15F. HIGHS BELOW NRML
ON FRI WILL MOVE CLOSE TO NRML ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MESSY AND UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG
TERM. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPR TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SUN
NIGHT THRU TUE. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN, WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE
AMONG GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA TO A LOW PASSING RIGHT OVER THE CWA WITH
AMPLE RAIN, AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN INVERTED TROF FROM SRN NEW
ENG TO THE ST. LAWR VLY WHILE OTHERS DON`T. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD
IN GUIDANCE AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, GENERALLY TOOK
SUPERBLEND POPS AND JUST TONED THEM DOWN A BIT AND MADE MINOR
OTHER TWEAKS. ALL POPS STAY AT 50 PCT OR LESS FOR NOW, UNTIL MORE
CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS. TEMPS FOR NOW ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMS, BUT THIS WILL LKLY CHANGE AS THE OTHER
ASPECTS OF THE FCST EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG ON CALM, CLEAR NIGHTS,
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM:
CURRENTLY FCST ENTIRE SHORT TERM TO HAVE CONDITIONS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, BUT WILL MONITOR BORDERLINE N-NE WIND GUSTS THU NIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





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