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000
FXUS61 KCAR 301043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST CLD CVR BASED ON LATEST SAT
IMG DEPICTION OF WHERE LOW CLDNSS AND FOG HAS PROGRESSED INTO OUR
FA AND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON 5-6 AM
OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: WE DO XPCT MORNG FOG OVER CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH A POSSIBLE XCPTN ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. OTHERWISE...SPC UPGRADED THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE FOR THE NW AND FAR NE TO A SLGT
RISK. WE ARE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH ML CAPES...WHICH MAX OUT
TO ABOUT 600 J/KG TO LCLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY PUTTING A BREAK
ON UPDRAFT SPEEDS EVEN OVR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE FAR NW.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS NOT TO FAR ALF...HEAVIER RNFL FROM ANY
TSTMS THAT DO GET GOING WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG THIS MOMENTUM TO THE
SFC IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE MAX CAPE AXIS
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 200J/KG AFT 00Z...SO WE DROP ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING AFT 00Z AND GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GENERAL STRATIFORM
RNFL AFT MDNGT WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING MORE OF AN ANA-FRONT
APPEARANCE. THE CNTR OF THE MAIN RNFL BAND WILL THEN TRANSITION
SWRD FROM NRN ME DURG THE OVRNGT HRS TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME BY
ERLY SUN MORN.

FCST AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT LOWER TO EVE A FEW MID 80S
FOR HI TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH
A SW SFC WIND...TO COOLER 70S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...TO
ONLY 60S ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE THE LLVL AIR
MASS IS MODIFIED BY WINDS ADVECTING OFF THE GULF OF ME. OVRNGT
LOWS WILL BE COOLER OVR THE N WHERE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE ALG
OR EVEN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EVENING.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAINY DAY FOR BANGOR
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DOWN EAST WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL INVERSION ARRIVES AND
DROPS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONT...THE LOWER
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO PERSIST. THIS WILL NET A RELATIVELY COOL...CLOUDY AND DRY
DAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO BANGOR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE COAST. THE FRONT
STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL MITIGATE THE
FROST RISK...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY WITH STEADIER OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST. A COOL EAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TOWARDS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE SPORADIC AND ALLOW HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MONDAY AND KEEPS THE PROLONGED OVERRUNNING EVENT
GOING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL ALSO TEND TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM IN THE AREA OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING TUESDAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN
THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE CONTINUING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE STEADIER RAINS WILL END.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST AND FOG AT MOST TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORN...WITH KBHB TAKING
LONGEST TO IMPROVE. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER NW TO SE TO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SHWRS AND GENERAL RNFL...WITH MORE MARINE FOG FOR
DOWNEAST SITES LOWERING CLGS/VSBYS TO LIFR.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF
HUL. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
IFR SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RETURNS
MONDAY AND WILL BE A PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO CHGS TO CURRENT SCA TO GO IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS AND SEAS...MARINE FOG REDUCING VSBYS BLO A MILE
ATTMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...SPCLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY
MORNING AND RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST CLD CVR BASED ON LATEST SAT
IMG DEPICTION OF WHERE LOW CLDNSS AND FOG HAS PROGRESSED INTO OUR
FA AND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON 5-6 AM
OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: WE DO XPCT MORNG FOG OVER CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH A POSSIBLE XCPTN ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. OTHERWISE...SPC UPGRADED THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE FOR THE NW AND FAR NE TO A SLGT
RISK. WE ARE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH ML CAPES...WHICH MAX OUT
TO ABOUT 600 J/KG TO LCLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY PUTTING A BREAK
ON UPDRAFT SPEEDS EVEN OVR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE FAR NW.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS NOT TO FAR ALF...HEAVIER RNFL FROM ANY
TSTMS THAT DO GET GOING WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG THIS MOMENTUM TO THE
SFC IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE MAX CAPE AXIS
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 200J/KG AFT 00Z...SO WE DROP ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING AFT 00Z AND GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GENERAL STRATIFORM
RNFL AFT MDNGT WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING MORE OF AN ANA-FRONT
APPEARANCE. THE CNTR OF THE MAIN RNFL BAND WILL THEN TRANSITION
SWRD FROM NRN ME DURG THE OVRNGT HRS TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME BY
ERLY SUN MORN.

FCST AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT LOWER TO EVE A FEW MID 80S
FOR HI TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH
A SW SFC WIND...TO COOLER 70S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...TO
ONLY 60S ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE THE LLVL AIR
MASS IS MODIFIED BY WINDS ADVECTING OFF THE GULF OF ME. OVRNGT
LOWS WILL BE COOLER OVR THE N WHERE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE ALG
OR EVEN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EVENING.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAINY DAY FOR BANGOR
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DOWN EAST WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL INVERSION ARRIVES AND
DROPS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONT...THE LOWER
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO PERSIST. THIS WILL NET A RELATIVELY COOL...CLOUDY AND DRY
DAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO BANGOR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE COAST. THE FRONT
STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL MITIGATE THE
FROST RISK...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY WITH STEADIER OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST. A COOL EAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TOWARDS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE SPORADIC AND ALLOW HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MONDAY AND KEEPS THE PROLONGED OVERRUNNING EVENT
GOING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL ALSO TEND TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM IN THE AREA OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING TUESDAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN
THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE CONTINUING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE STEADIER RAINS WILL END.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST AND FOG AT MOST TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORN...WITH KBHB TAKING
LONGEST TO IMPROVE. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER NW TO SE TO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SHWRS AND GENERAL RNFL...WITH MORE MARINE FOG FOR
DOWNEAST SITES LOWERING CLGS/VSBYS TO LIFR.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF
HUL. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
IFR SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RETURNS
MONDAY AND WILL BE A PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO CHGS TO CURRENT SCA TO GO IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS AND SEAS...MARINE FOG REDUCING VSBYS BLO A MILE
ATTMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...SPCLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY
MORNING AND RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST CLD CVR BASED ON LATEST SAT
IMG DEPICTION OF WHERE LOW CLDNSS AND FOG HAS PROGRESSED INTO OUR
FA AND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON 5-6 AM
OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: WE DO XPCT MORNG FOG OVER CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH A POSSIBLE XCPTN ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. OTHERWISE...SPC UPGRADED THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE FOR THE NW AND FAR NE TO A SLGT
RISK. WE ARE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH ML CAPES...WHICH MAX OUT
TO ABOUT 600 J/KG TO LCLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY PUTTING A BREAK
ON UPDRAFT SPEEDS EVEN OVR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE FAR NW.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS NOT TO FAR ALF...HEAVIER RNFL FROM ANY
TSTMS THAT DO GET GOING WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG THIS MOMENTUM TO THE
SFC IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE MAX CAPE AXIS
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 200J/KG AFT 00Z...SO WE DROP ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING AFT 00Z AND GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GENERAL STRATIFORM
RNFL AFT MDNGT WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING MORE OF AN ANA-FRONT
APPEARANCE. THE CNTR OF THE MAIN RNFL BAND WILL THEN TRANSITION
SWRD FROM NRN ME DURG THE OVRNGT HRS TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME BY
ERLY SUN MORN.

FCST AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT LOWER TO EVE A FEW MID 80S
FOR HI TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH
A SW SFC WIND...TO COOLER 70S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...TO
ONLY 60S ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE THE LLVL AIR
MASS IS MODIFIED BY WINDS ADVECTING OFF THE GULF OF ME. OVRNGT
LOWS WILL BE COOLER OVR THE N WHERE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE ALG
OR EVEN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EVENING.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAINY DAY FOR BANGOR
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DOWN EAST WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL INVERSION ARRIVES AND
DROPS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONT...THE LOWER
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO PERSIST. THIS WILL NET A RELATIVELY COOL...CLOUDY AND DRY
DAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO BANGOR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE COAST. THE FRONT
STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL MITIGATE THE
FROST RISK...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY WITH STEADIER OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST. A COOL EAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TOWARDS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE SPORADIC AND ALLOW HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MONDAY AND KEEPS THE PROLONGED OVERRUNNING EVENT
GOING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL ALSO TEND TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM IN THE AREA OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING TUESDAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN
THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE CONTINUING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE STEADIER RAINS WILL END.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST AND FOG AT MOST TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORN...WITH KBHB TAKING
LONGEST TO IMPROVE. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER NW TO SE TO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SHWRS AND GENERAL RNFL...WITH MORE MARINE FOG FOR
DOWNEAST SITES LOWERING CLGS/VSBYS TO LIFR.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF
HUL. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
IFR SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RETURNS
MONDAY AND WILL BE A PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO CHGS TO CURRENT SCA TO GO IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS AND SEAS...MARINE FOG REDUCING VSBYS BLO A MILE
ATTMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...SPCLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY
MORNING AND RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE DO XPCT MORNG FOG OVER CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO LIFT LATER
THIS MORN...WITH A POSSIBLE XCPTN ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
OTHERWISE...SPC UPGRADED THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS LATER
THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE FOR THE NW AND FAR NE TO A SLGT RISK. WE
ARE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH ML CAPES...WHICH MAX OUT TO ABOUT
600 J/KG TO LCLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTN...WITH WEAK
MID LVL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY PUTTING A BREAK ON UPDRAFT SPEEDS
EVEN OVR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE FAR NW. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WINDS NOT TO FAR ALF...HEAVIER RNFL FROM ANY TSTMS THAT DO
GET GOING WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC IN THE
FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE MAX CAPE AXIS
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 200J/KG AFT 00Z...SO WE DROP ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING AFT 00Z AND GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GENERAL STRATIFORM
RNFL AFT MDNGT WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING MORE OF AN ANA-FRONT
APPEARANCE. THE CNTR OF THE MAIN RNFL BAND WILL THEN TRANSITION
SWRD FROM NRN ME DURG THE OVRNGT HRS TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME BY
ERLY SUN MORN.

FCST AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT LOWER TO EVE A FEW MID 80S
FOR HI TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH
A SW SFC WIND...TO COOLER 70S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...TO
ONLY 60S ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE THE LLVL AIR
MASS IS MODIFIED BY WINDS ADVECTING OFF THE GULF OF ME. OVRNGT
LOWS WILL BE COOLER OVR THE N WHERE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE ALG
OR EVEN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EVENING.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAINY DAY FOR BANGOR
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DOWN EAST WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL INVERSION ARRIVES AND
DROPS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONT...THE LOWER
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO PERSIST. THIS WILL NET A RELATIVELY COOL...CLOUDY AND DRY
DAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO BANGOR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE COAST. THE FRONT
STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL MITIGATE THE
FROST RISK...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY WITH STEADIER OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST. A COOL EAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TOWARDS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE SPORADIC AND ALLOW HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MONDAY AND KEEPS THE PROLONGED OVERRUNNING EVENT
GOING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL ALSO TEND TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM IN THE AREA OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING TUESDAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN
THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE CONTINUING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE STEADIER RAINS WILL END.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST AND FOG AT MOST TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORN...WITH KBHB TAKING
LONGEST TO IMPROVE. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER NW TO SE TO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SHWRS AND GENERAL RNFL...WITH MORE MARINE FOG FOR
DOWNEAST SITES LOWERING CLGS/VSBYS TO LIFR.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF
HUL. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
IFR SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RETURNS
MONDAY AND WILL BE A PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO CHGS TO CURRENT SCA TO GO IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS AND SEAS...MARINE FOG REDUCING VSBYS BLO A MILE
ATTMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...SPCLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY
MORNING AND RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE DO XPCT MORNG FOG OVER CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO LIFT LATER
THIS MORN...WITH A POSSIBLE XCPTN ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
OTHERWISE...SPC UPGRADED THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS LATER
THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE FOR THE NW AND FAR NE TO A SLGT RISK. WE
ARE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH ML CAPES...WHICH MAX OUT TO ABOUT
600 J/KG TO LCLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTN...WITH WEAK
MID LVL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY PUTTING A BREAK ON UPDRAFT SPEEDS
EVEN OVR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE FAR NW. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WINDS NOT TO FAR ALF...HEAVIER RNFL FROM ANY TSTMS THAT DO
GET GOING WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC IN THE
FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE MAX CAPE AXIS
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 200J/KG AFT 00Z...SO WE DROP ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING AFT 00Z AND GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GENERAL STRATIFORM
RNFL AFT MDNGT WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING MORE OF AN ANA-FRONT
APPEARANCE. THE CNTR OF THE MAIN RNFL BAND WILL THEN TRANSITION
SWRD FROM NRN ME DURG THE OVRNGT HRS TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME BY
ERLY SUN MORN.

FCST AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT LOWER TO EVE A FEW MID 80S
FOR HI TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH
A SW SFC WIND...TO COOLER 70S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...TO
ONLY 60S ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE THE LLVL AIR
MASS IS MODIFIED BY WINDS ADVECTING OFF THE GULF OF ME. OVRNGT
LOWS WILL BE COOLER OVR THE N WHERE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE ALG
OR EVEN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EVENING.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAINY DAY FOR BANGOR
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DOWN EAST WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL INVERSION ARRIVES AND
DROPS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONT...THE LOWER
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO PERSIST. THIS WILL NET A RELATIVELY COOL...CLOUDY AND DRY
DAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO BANGOR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE COAST. THE FRONT
STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL MITIGATE THE
FROST RISK...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY WITH STEADIER OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST. A COOL EAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TOWARDS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE SPORADIC AND ALLOW HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MONDAY AND KEEPS THE PROLONGED OVERRUNNING EVENT
GOING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL ALSO TEND TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM IN THE AREA OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING TUESDAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN
THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE CONTINUING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE STEADIER RAINS WILL END.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST AND FOG AT MOST TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORN...WITH KBHB TAKING
LONGEST TO IMPROVE. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER NW TO SE TO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SHWRS AND GENERAL RNFL...WITH MORE MARINE FOG FOR
DOWNEAST SITES LOWERING CLGS/VSBYS TO LIFR.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF
HUL. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
IFR SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RETURNS
MONDAY AND WILL BE A PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO CHGS TO CURRENT SCA TO GO IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS AND SEAS...MARINE FOG REDUCING VSBYS BLO A MILE
ATTMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...SPCLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY
MORNING AND RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1246 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: WE BEEFED UP CLD CVR OVR DOWNEAST...E CNTRL AND NE
PTNS OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO ERLY MORN
HRS SAT WI THE THE ADVC OF MARINE ST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS
WERE UPDATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT BASED ON MDNGT
OBSVD TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS AT 5 AM.

PREV DISC: CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LI`S DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1246 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: WE BEEFED UP CLD CVR OVR DOWNEAST...E CNTRL AND NE
PTNS OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO ERLY MORN
HRS SAT WI THE THE ADVC OF MARINE ST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS
WERE UPDATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT BASED ON MDNGT
OBSVD TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS AT 5 AM.

PREV DISC: CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LI`S DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300131
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
931 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING T/TD VALUES IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS. THINGS
ARE STILL A GO REGARDING FOG DVLPMNT TONIGHT OVR COASTAL ZONES
AND SPREADING NORTH ON SRLY FLOW BLO STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z RAOB.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300131
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
931 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING T/TD VALUES IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS. THINGS
ARE STILL A GO REGARDING FOG DVLPMNT TONIGHT OVR COASTAL ZONES
AND SPREADING NORTH ON SRLY FLOW BLO STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z RAOB.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 292210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1809 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE.

CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 292210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1809 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE.

CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1809 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE.

CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
 ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
 ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
 ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
 ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291801
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
201 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE...MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE SKY CONDITIONS TO
SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE COAST AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
HUNG IN A BIT LONGER. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291801
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
201 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE...MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE SKY CONDITIONS TO
SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE COAST AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
HUNG IN A BIT LONGER. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291344
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
933 AM UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WERE
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION PER THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE REST OF THE CWA WAS SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON W/MOISTURE TUCKED IN AT 850MBS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUCH AS SB CAPE OF
400-700 JOULES AND 700-500MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0-6.5C/KM. THIS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY ABOVE THE 850MBS LAYER. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWS A SEAS BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IS LIFT N W/SOME LIGHT RETURNS OF 25 DBZ SHOWING UP
W/THE BOUNDARY. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CURRENT PACKAGE OF KEEPING
THINGS DRY. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291344
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
933 AM UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WERE
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION PER THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE REST OF THE CWA WAS SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON W/MOISTURE TUCKED IN AT 850MBS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUCH AS SB CAPE OF
400-700 JOULES AND 700-500MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0-6.5C/KM. THIS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY ABOVE THE 850MBS LAYER. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWS A SEAS BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IS LIFT N W/SOME LIGHT RETURNS OF 25 DBZ SHOWING UP
W/THE BOUNDARY. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CURRENT PACKAGE OF KEEPING
THINGS DRY. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291344
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
933 AM UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WERE
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION PER THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE REST OF THE CWA WAS SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON W/MOISTURE TUCKED IN AT 850MBS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUCH AS SB CAPE OF
400-700 JOULES AND 700-500MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0-6.5C/KM. THIS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY ABOVE THE 850MBS LAYER. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWS A SEAS BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IS LIFT N W/SOME LIGHT RETURNS OF 25 DBZ SHOWING UP
W/THE BOUNDARY. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CURRENT PACKAGE OF KEEPING
THINGS DRY. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MIXING
INCREASES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THESE LOCATIONS...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MIXING
INCREASES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THESE LOCATIONS...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290754
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN WHAT
WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T FEEL QUITE SO
MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LATEST
HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S IN MOST
SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WINDS
WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING AREAS OF FOG AT THIS HOUR.
THIS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT IT WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OTHER THAN
ADDING FOG FOR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, ALL OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT
SLOWING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP
AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN
NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING AREAS OF FOG AT THIS HOUR.
THIS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT IT WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OTHER THAN
ADDING FOG FOR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, ALL OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT
SLOWING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP
AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN
NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING AREAS OF FOG AT THIS HOUR.
THIS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT IT WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OTHER THAN
ADDING FOG FOR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, ALL OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT
SLOWING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP
AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN
NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING AREAS OF FOG AT THIS HOUR.
THIS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT IT WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OTHER THAN
ADDING FOG FOR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, ALL OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT
SLOWING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP
AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN
NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
820 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE...
FRONT IS NOW BISECTING CWA WITH LAST GASP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST. LGT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACRS CNTRL SXNS AHD OF H5 S/WV
PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA. QUICK UPDATE TO HRLY T/TD VALUES FOR
THIS EVNG BUT NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. SKIES ARE
CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN
NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
820 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE...
FRONT IS NOW BISECTING CWA WITH LAST GASP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST. LGT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACRS CNTRL SXNS AHD OF H5 S/WV
PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA. QUICK UPDATE TO HRLY T/TD VALUES FOR
THIS EVNG BUT NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. SKIES ARE
CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN
NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE: COORDINATED W/SPC AND GYX IN DROPPING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS THINGS HAVE STABILIZED. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLAND AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST, A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
AROUND BY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE LOSE THE DIURNAL EFFECTS.
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS W/THE COOLING
TAKING PLACE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE: COORDINATED W/SPC AND GYX IN DROPPING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS THINGS HAVE STABILIZED. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLAND AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST, A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
AROUND BY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE LOSE THE DIURNAL EFFECTS.
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS W/THE COOLING
TAKING PLACE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 282124
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
524 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
515 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH UP THE RADAR
W/CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A SURGE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
WAS MOVING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BANGOR
REGION AS IT RUNS INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE
AXIS HAD SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE
REGION, ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE.

SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF-SHORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 282124
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
524 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
515 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH UP THE RADAR
W/CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A SURGE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
WAS MOVING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BANGOR
REGION AS IT RUNS INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE
AXIS HAD SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE
REGION, ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE.

SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF-SHORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281817
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
217 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF-SHORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH CURRENT WIND SPEED BELOW 10 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS
SWELL ENTERING WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).
WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WITH STRONG BOUNDARY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS AND STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FOR WAVE
GRIDS WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL.


SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281635
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE...SPC COORDINATED W/SURROUNDING WFOS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223 UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281635
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE...SPC COORDINATED W/SURROUNDING WFOS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223 UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281635
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE...SPC COORDINATED W/SURROUNDING WFOS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223 UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAD THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO QUEBEC W/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LAP SOUNDINGS ALREADY SHOWING THINGS DESTABILIZING QUICKLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. SB/MU CAPES RANGING FROM
600-1000 JOULES AND LIS DOWN BELOW 0. K INDEX ALREADY AT 35. ALL
PARAMETERS EXPECTED TO GO EVEN MORE W/THINGS DESTABILIZING EVEN
FURTHER.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAD THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO QUEBEC W/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LAP SOUNDINGS ALREADY SHOWING THINGS DESTABILIZING QUICKLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. SB/MU CAPES RANGING FROM
600-1000 JOULES AND LIS DOWN BELOW 0. K INDEX ALREADY AT 35. ALL
PARAMETERS EXPECTED TO GO EVEN MORE W/THINGS DESTABILIZING EVEN
FURTHER.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAD THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO QUEBEC W/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LAP SOUNDINGS ALREADY SHOWING THINGS DESTABILIZING QUICKLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. SB/MU CAPES RANGING FROM
600-1000 JOULES AND LIS DOWN BELOW 0. K INDEX ALREADY AT 35. ALL
PARAMETERS EXPECTED TO GO EVEN MORE W/THINGS DESTABILIZING EVEN
FURTHER.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAD THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO QUEBEC W/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LAP SOUNDINGS ALREADY SHOWING THINGS DESTABILIZING QUICKLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. SB/MU CAPES RANGING FROM
600-1000 JOULES AND LIS DOWN BELOW 0. K INDEX ALREADY AT 35. ALL
PARAMETERS EXPECTED TO GO EVEN MORE W/THINGS DESTABILIZING EVEN
FURTHER.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280953
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
553 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...CURRENTLY LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT
ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST. CAN ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
CROSSING QUEBEC AT THIS HOUR. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO MATCH THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE
OVERALL FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS NOT CHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280953
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
553 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...CURRENTLY LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT
ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST. CAN ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
CROSSING QUEBEC AT THIS HOUR. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO MATCH THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE
OVERALL FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS NOT CHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280953
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
553 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...CURRENTLY LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT
ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST. CAN ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
CROSSING QUEBEC AT THIS HOUR. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO MATCH THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE
OVERALL FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS NOT CHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280953
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
553 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...CURRENTLY LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT
ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST. CAN ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
CROSSING QUEBEC AT THIS HOUR. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO MATCH THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE
OVERALL FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS NOT CHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280738
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280738
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280738
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280738
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT SITS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, MUGGY AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW
SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON
TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS
IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT,
EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1246 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END, WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER CENTRAL MAINE. STARTING TO
SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, DON`T EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS, MEANING IT`LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAS THIS COVERED, SO JUST MADE SOME
TWEAKS TO POPS, SKY, AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
CONJUNCTIONW/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS
SB/MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON
W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30
KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
955 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTS TO HANG ON ACRS CNTR PORTION OF CWA THO IT
IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. EXPECT SHOWERS WL
CONTINUE UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN WV MVS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. NO MAJOR
CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

8PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV
WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO
NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV
LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WL MV INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS AS S/WV MVS
OFF INTO CANADA BY 06Z. HV RETAINED SCTD SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVRNGT, CWA WL RMN IN SOUPY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RMN IN THE 60S AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATING THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW AHD OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF SVR WX.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
CONJUNCTIONW/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS
SB/MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON
W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30
KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
955 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTS TO HANG ON ACRS CNTR PORTION OF CWA THO IT
IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. EXPECT SHOWERS WL
CONTINUE UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN WV MVS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. NO MAJOR
CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

8PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV
WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO
NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV
LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WL MV INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS AS S/WV MVS
OFF INTO CANADA BY 06Z. HV RETAINED SCTD SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVRNGT, CWA WL RMN IN SOUPY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RMN IN THE 60S AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATING THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW AHD OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF SVR WX.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
CONJUNCTIONW/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS
SB/MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON
W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30
KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV
WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO
NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV
LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WL MV INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS AS S/WV MVS
OFF INTO CANADA BY 06Z. HV RETAINED SCTD SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVRNGT, CWA WL RMN IN SOUPY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RMN IN THE 60S AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATING THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW AHD OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF SVR WX.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV
WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO
NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV
LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WL MV INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS AS S/WV MVS
OFF INTO CANADA BY 06Z. HV RETAINED SCTD SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVRNGT, CWA WL RMN IN SOUPY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RMN IN THE 60S AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATING THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW AHD OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF SVR WX.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV
WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO
NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV
LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WL MV INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS AS S/WV MVS
OFF INTO CANADA BY 06Z. HV RETAINED SCTD SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVRNGT, CWA WL RMN IN SOUPY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RMN IN THE 60S AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATING THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW AHD OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF SVR WX.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR WILL MAINLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB FOR FOG/STRATUS.


SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR WILL MAINLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB FOR FOG/STRATUS.


SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR WILL MAINLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB FOR FOG/STRATUS.


SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
128 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM
AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
110 PM UPDATE...UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BOOST THE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE AREAS OF FOCUS APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED THINGS DESTABILIZING
ACROSS NYS AND NORTHERN VT WHERE A SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN PLACE. A
NOSE OF MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES NOSES UP FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION INTO SWRN MAINE. VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
CLEARING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE W/CU POPPING IN A LINE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. NICE NOSE OF HIGH THETA E AIR COINCIDES W/THE
MUCAPES. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR TSTMS
W/ROTATION THROUGH 7K FT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM STRUCTURE
ATTM LOOKS TO BE A LINE SEGMENT W/A FEW BOW ECHOES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS W/A
STORM MOTION OF 250 DEGREES. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL THE MAIN
THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT W/FAST MOVEMENT,
DURATION LOOKS TO BE LESSENED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES AND WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS
AOA 10 KFT, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WHILE
HAIL CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL
GREATLY REDUCES ITS CHANCES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOULTON TO
DOVER-FOXCROFT LINE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING DUE TO SOUTH FLOW OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. IT`LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A S/WV MOVG E FROM SRN QB PROV LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THU AFTN ACROSS THE N TO THU EVE DOWNEAST.
THIS TMG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS...MSLY OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE FCST MAX AFTN SFC BASE CAPES COULD
APCH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WE KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RNFL AND GUSTY STRONG WINDS...AND WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER FZLS THUS AFTN/ERLY EVE THAN THIS AFTN...A MENTION
OF HAIL. IF TSTMS DID BECOME SVR...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE
WINDS FROM BOWING LN SEGMENTS...BASED ON THE GREATEST RATIO BEING
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WINDS COMPARED TO THE TOTAL IN THE 0-6KM LAYER.
THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR THU AFTN INDICATES MARGINAL ATTM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE RAISED TO SLGT CHC WHEN THIS EVENT GETS
CLOSER TO REAL TM.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY LATE
THU NGT WITH COOLER OVRNGT LOWS ACCOMPANYING LOWER DWPT...THEN
FAIR...MSLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH ABV
NORMAL HI TEMPS CONT AS THE SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVG N OF THE ST JOHN RVR FRI NGT...OVRNGT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILDER UNDER FAIR SKIES AND A SW BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE A MSLY TO PTLY SUNNY DAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID
DAY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND IN PARTICULAR...THE NW BROAD RVR VLYS
BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF FCST AFTN MAX 925MB TEMPS XTNDG FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NW VT INTO NW ME ON A 200 TO 210 DEG SFC
WIND DIRECTION. FOR THIS PD ONLY...WE BLENDED THE 00Z WMODEL HI
TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARMEST HI TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 80S OVR NW ME RVR VLYS MATCHING THE FCST
ORIENTATION OF THE CORRIDOR OF MAX 925MB TEMPS. WITH SSW WINDS...
HI TEMPS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...SPCLY THE COAST WILL BE COOLER.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS APCHG NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM QB PROV LATE
SAT AFTN. ACTUALLY...THIS IS COMPROMISE TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND THE 3 TO 6 HR SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONT ARRIVING ERLY ENOUGH TO UTILIZE MAX HTG AND INSTABILITY DURG
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WE DO NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED AFTN/EVE TSTM
WORDING THIS UPDATE. IN FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...MOST OF THE RNFL WOULD BE STABLE POST FRONTAL SHWRS/
STRATIFORM RNFL AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY XTNDED SVR OUTLOOK FOR
THIS SYSTEM ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SWRD INTO THE FA FIRST THRU NRN ME BY ERLY SUN MORN...THEN CONTG
TO OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTN. AFT MUCH COOLER HI TEMPS SUN
AFTN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...SUN NGT WILL BE A RELATIVELY CHILLY
NGT. MON SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH SUNNIEST SKIES ACROSS THE N...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING CLDS AND SHWRS LINGERING OVR THE GULF OF ME
WITH A FOLLOW-UP S/WV MOVG E OFF THE MID NEW COAST. BOTH MODELS
SHOW TUE TO CONT FAIR ATTM WITH SOME REBOUND IN HI TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KBHB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBGR FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. FROM 12Z WED TO 03Z THU,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.


SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN TSTMS AND HEAVIER
SHWRS THU AFTN AND LATE SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AND ANY PATCHY MORN
FOG OVR DOWNEAST SITES THU MORN...WHEN MVFR OF IFR CLGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WAVES AROUND 5 FT, WITH
SEAS ACTUALLY BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS, BUT AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS WILL LIKELY
CONT AT LEAST THRU THU...BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SINCE
STABLE SFC-500 M LAPSE RATES COULD REDUCE SFC WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP
WV HTS BLO 5 FT. WV HTS SHOULD DIMINISH THU NGT INTO FRI...BEFORE
SLOWLY BUILDING AGAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT TO POSSIBLE SCA WV HTS
AGAIN MSLY OVR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ONLY ABOUT 80 TO 85 PERCENT
OF FCST WW3 WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST DUE TO THE SEASONAL
HIGH WIND BIAS OF THE GFS...AND EVEN THESE RESULTANT WV HTS MAY BE
GENEROUS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
128 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM
AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
110 PM UPDATE...UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BOOST THE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE AREAS OF FOCUS APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED THINGS DESTABILIZING
ACROSS NYS AND NORTHERN VT WHERE A SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN PLACE. A
NOSE OF MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES NOSES UP FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION INTO SWRN MAINE. VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
CLEARING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE W/CU POPPING IN A LINE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. NICE NOSE OF HIGH THETA E AIR COINCIDES W/THE
MUCAPES. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR TSTMS
W/ROTATION THROUGH 7K FT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM STRUCTURE
ATTM LOOKS TO BE A LINE SEGMENT W/A FEW BOW ECHOES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS W/A
STORM MOTION OF 250 DEGREES. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL THE MAIN
THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT W/FAST MOVEMENT,
DURATION LOOKS TO BE LESSENED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES AND WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS
AOA 10 KFT, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WHILE
HAIL CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL
GREATLY REDUCES ITS CHANCES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOULTON TO
DOVER-FOXCROFT LINE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING DUE TO SOUTH FLOW OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. IT`LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A S/WV MOVG E FROM SRN QB PROV LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THU AFTN ACROSS THE N TO THU EVE DOWNEAST.
THIS TMG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS...MSLY OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE FCST MAX AFTN SFC BASE CAPES COULD
APCH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WE KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RNFL AND GUSTY STRONG WINDS...AND WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER FZLS THUS AFTN/ERLY EVE THAN THIS AFTN...A MENTION
OF HAIL. IF TSTMS DID BECOME SVR...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE
WINDS FROM BOWING LN SEGMENTS...BASED ON THE GREATEST RATIO BEING
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WINDS COMPARED TO THE TOTAL IN THE 0-6KM LAYER.
THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR THU AFTN INDICATES MARGINAL ATTM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE RAISED TO SLGT CHC WHEN THIS EVENT GETS
CLOSER TO REAL TM.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY LATE
THU NGT WITH COOLER OVRNGT LOWS ACCOMPANYING LOWER DWPT...THEN
FAIR...MSLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH ABV
NORMAL HI TEMPS CONT AS THE SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVG N OF THE ST JOHN RVR FRI NGT...OVRNGT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILDER UNDER FAIR SKIES AND A SW BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE A MSLY TO PTLY SUNNY DAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID
DAY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND IN PARTICULAR...THE NW BROAD RVR VLYS
BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF FCST AFTN MAX 925MB TEMPS XTNDG FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NW VT INTO NW ME ON A 200 TO 210 DEG SFC
WIND DIRECTION. FOR THIS PD ONLY...WE BLENDED THE 00Z WMODEL HI
TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARMEST HI TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 80S OVR NW ME RVR VLYS MATCHING THE FCST
ORIENTATION OF THE CORRIDOR OF MAX 925MB TEMPS. WITH SSW WINDS...
HI TEMPS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...SPCLY THE COAST WILL BE COOLER.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS APCHG NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM QB PROV LATE
SAT AFTN. ACTUALLY...THIS IS COMPROMISE TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND THE 3 TO 6 HR SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONT ARRIVING ERLY ENOUGH TO UTILIZE MAX HTG AND INSTABILITY DURG
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WE DO NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED AFTN/EVE TSTM
WORDING THIS UPDATE. IN FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...MOST OF THE RNFL WOULD BE STABLE POST FRONTAL SHWRS/
STRATIFORM RNFL AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY XTNDED SVR OUTLOOK FOR
THIS SYSTEM ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SWRD INTO THE FA FIRST THRU NRN ME BY ERLY SUN MORN...THEN CONTG
TO OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTN. AFT MUCH COOLER HI TEMPS SUN
AFTN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...SUN NGT WILL BE A RELATIVELY CHILLY
NGT. MON SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH SUNNIEST SKIES ACROSS THE N...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING CLDS AND SHWRS LINGERING OVR THE GULF OF ME
WITH A FOLLOW-UP S/WV MOVG E OFF THE MID NEW COAST. BOTH MODELS
SHOW TUE TO CONT FAIR ATTM WITH SOME REBOUND IN HI TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KBHB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBGR FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. FROM 12Z WED TO 03Z THU,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.


SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN TSTMS AND HEAVIER
SHWRS THU AFTN AND LATE SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AND ANY PATCHY MORN
FOG OVR DOWNEAST SITES THU MORN...WHEN MVFR OF IFR CLGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WAVES AROUND 5 FT, WITH
SEAS ACTUALLY BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS, BUT AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS WILL LIKELY
CONT AT LEAST THRU THU...BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SINCE
STABLE SFC-500 M LAPSE RATES COULD REDUCE SFC WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP
WV HTS BLO 5 FT. WV HTS SHOULD DIMINISH THU NGT INTO FRI...BEFORE
SLOWLY BUILDING AGAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT TO POSSIBLE SCA WV HTS
AGAIN MSLY OVR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ONLY ABOUT 80 TO 85 PERCENT
OF FCST WW3 WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST DUE TO THE SEASONAL
HIGH WIND BIAS OF THE GFS...AND EVEN THESE RESULTANT WV HTS MAY BE
GENEROUS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM
AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING TO INTRODUCE MORE CLOUDS AS VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
THIS FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE.
RADAR HAD SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS HANDLED QUITE WELL ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS. SSE FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY DOWN ATTM. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO DAMPEN THINGS A
BIT HELPING TO STABILIZE THE LLVLS, BUT CLEARING BEHIND THIS FIRST
BATCH OF CLOUDS COULD ALLOW THINGS TO HEAT UP AND DESTABILIZE
FURTHER W/SECOND ROUND AS PRE-FRONTAL BAND ARRIVES AFTER 2 PM.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THIS WILL BE
LOOKED AT MORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED
TO PUSH AFTERNOON MAXES UP. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
THIS MORNING`S UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST
DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. READ ON FOR DETAILS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE; HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN
GET TODAY, AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 500-1200 J/KG RANGE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE WEST. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO FIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR TO 25-30 KT BY 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE THIS IS
MODEST, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. WITH PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES AND
WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS AOA 10 KFT, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. WHILE HAIL CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE HEIGHT OF
THE FREEZING LEVEL GREATLY REDUCES ITS CHANCES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
HOULTON TO DOVER-FOXCROFT LINE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING DUE TO SOUTH FLOW OFF THE COLD GULF OF
MAINE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. IT`LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A S/WV MOVG E FROM SRN QB PROV LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THU AFTN ACROSS THE N TO THU EVE DOWNEAST.
THIS TMG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS...MSLY OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE FCST MAX AFTN SFC BASE CAPES COULD
APCH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WE KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RNFL AND GUSTY STRONG WINDS...AND WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER FZLS THUS AFTN/ERLY EVE THAN THIS AFTN...A MENTION
OF HAIL. IF TSTMS DID BECOME SVR...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE
WINDS FROM BOWING LN SEGMENTS...BASED ON THE GREATEST RATIO BEING
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WINDS COMPARED TO THE TOTAL IN THE 0-6KM LAYER.
THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR THU AFTN INDICATES MARGINAL ATTM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE RAISED TO SLGT CHC WHEN THIS EVENT GETS
CLOSER TO REAL TM.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY LATE
THU NGT WITH COOLER OVRNGT LOWS ACCOMPANYING LOWER DWPT...THEN
FAIR...MSLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH ABV
NORMAL HI TEMPS CONT AS THE SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVG N OF THE ST JOHN RVR FRI NGT...OVRNGT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILDER UNDER FAIR SKIES AND A SW BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE A MSLY TO PTLY SUNNY DAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID
DAY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND IN PARTICULAR...THE NW BROAD RVR VLYS
BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF FCST AFTN MAX 925MB TEMPS XTNDG FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NW VT INTO NW ME ON A 200 TO 210 DEG SFC
WIND DIRECTION. FOR THIS PD ONLY...WE BLENDED THE 00Z WMODEL HI
TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARMEST HI TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 80S OVR NW ME RVR VLYS MATCHING THE FCST
ORIENTATION OF THE CORRIDOR OF MAX 925MB TEMPS. WITH SSW WINDS...
HI TEMPS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...SPCLY THE COAST WILL BE COOLER.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS APCHG NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM QB PROV LATE
SAT AFTN. ACTUALLY...THIS IS COMPROMISE TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND THE 3 TO 6 HR SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONT ARRIVING ERLY ENOUGH TO UTILIZE MAX HTG AND INSTABILITY DURG
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WE DO NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED AFTN/EVE TSTM
WORDING THIS UPDATE. IN FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...MOST OF THE RNFL WOULD BE STABLE POST FRONTAL SHWRS/
STRATIFORM RNFL AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY XTNDED SVR OUTLOOK FOR
THIS SYSTEM ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SWRD INTO THE FA FIRST THRU NRN ME BY ERLY SUN MORN...THEN CONTG
TO OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTN. AFT MUCH COOLER HI TEMPS SUN
AFTN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...SUN NGT WILL BE A RELATIVELY CHILLY
NGT. MON SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH SUNNIEST SKIES ACROSS THE N...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING CLDS AND SHWRS LINGERING OVR THE GULF OF ME
WITH A FOLLOW-UP S/WV MOVG E OFF THE MID NEW COAST. BOTH MODELS
SHOW TUE TO CONT FAIR ATTM WITH SOME REBOUND IN HI TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KBHB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBGR FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. FROM 12Z WED TO 03Z THU,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.


SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN TSTMS AND HEAVIER
SHWRS THU AFTN AND LATE SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AND ANY PATCHY MORN
FOG OVR DOWNEAST SITES THU MORN...WHEN MVFR OF IFR CLGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WAVES AROUND 5 FT, WITH
SEAS ACTUALLY BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS, BUT AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS WILL LIKELY
CONT AT LEAST THRU THU...BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SINCE
STABLE SFC-500 M LAPSE RATES COULD REDUCE SFC WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP
WV HTS BLO 5 FT. WV HTS SHOULD DIMINISH THU NGT INTO FRI...BEFORE
SLOWLY BUILDING AGAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT TO POSSIBLE SCA WV HTS
AGAIN MSLY OVR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ONLY ABOUT 80 TO 85 PERCENT
OF FCST WW3 WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST DUE TO THE SEASONAL
HIGH WIND BIAS OF THE GFS...AND EVEN THESE RESULTANT WV HTS MAY BE
GENEROUS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM
AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING TO INTRODUCE MORE CLOUDS AS VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
THIS FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE.
RADAR HAD SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS HANDLED QUITE WELL ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS. SSE FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY DOWN ATTM. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO DAMPEN THINGS A
BIT HELPING TO STABILIZE THE LLVLS, BUT CLEARING BEHIND THIS FIRST
BATCH OF CLOUDS COULD ALLOW THINGS TO HEAT UP AND DESTABILIZE
FURTHER W/SECOND ROUND AS PRE-FRONTAL BAND ARRIVES AFTER 2 PM.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THIS WILL BE
LOOKED AT MORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED
TO PUSH AFTERNOON MAXES UP. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
THIS MORNING`S UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST
DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. READ ON FOR DETAILS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE; HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN
GET TODAY, AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 500-1200 J/KG RANGE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE WEST. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO FIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR TO 25-30 KT BY 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE THIS IS
MODEST, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. WITH PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES AND
WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS AOA 10 KFT, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. WHILE HAIL CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE HEIGHT OF
THE FREEZING LEVEL GREATLY REDUCES ITS CHANCES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
HOULTON TO DOVER-FOXCROFT LINE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING DUE TO SOUTH FLOW OFF THE COLD GULF OF
MAINE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. IT`LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A S/WV MOVG E FROM SRN QB PROV LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THU AFTN ACROSS THE N TO THU EVE DOWNEAST.
THIS TMG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS...MSLY OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE FCST MAX AFTN SFC BASE CAPES COULD
APCH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WE KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RNFL AND GUSTY STRONG WINDS...AND WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER FZLS THUS AFTN/ERLY EVE THAN THIS AFTN...A MENTION
OF HAIL. IF TSTMS DID BECOME SVR...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE
WINDS FROM BOWING LN SEGMENTS...BASED ON THE GREATEST RATIO BEING
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WINDS COMPARED TO THE TOTAL IN THE 0-6KM LAYER.
THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR THU AFTN INDICATES MARGINAL ATTM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE RAISED TO SLGT CHC WHEN THIS EVENT GETS
CLOSER TO REAL TM.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY LATE
THU NGT WITH COOLER OVRNGT LOWS ACCOMPANYING LOWER DWPT...THEN
FAIR...MSLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH ABV
NORMAL HI TEMPS CONT AS THE SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVG N OF THE ST JOHN RVR FRI NGT...OVRNGT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILDER UNDER FAIR SKIES AND A SW BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE A MSLY TO PTLY SUNNY DAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID
DAY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND IN PARTICULAR...THE NW BROAD RVR VLYS
BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF FCST AFTN MAX 925MB TEMPS XTNDG FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NW VT INTO NW ME ON A 200 TO 210 DEG SFC
WIND DIRECTION. FOR THIS PD ONLY...WE BLENDED THE 00Z WMODEL HI
TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARMEST HI TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 80S OVR NW ME RVR VLYS MATCHING THE FCST
ORIENTATION OF THE CORRIDOR OF MAX 925MB TEMPS. WITH SSW WINDS...
HI TEMPS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...SPCLY THE COAST WILL BE COOLER.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS APCHG NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM QB PROV LATE
SAT AFTN. ACTUALLY...THIS IS COMPROMISE TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND THE 3 TO 6 HR SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONT ARRIVING ERLY ENOUGH TO UTILIZE MAX HTG AND INSTABILITY DURG
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WE DO NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED AFTN/EVE TSTM
WORDING THIS UPDATE. IN FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...MOST OF THE RNFL WOULD BE STABLE POST FRONTAL SHWRS/
STRATIFORM RNFL AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY XTNDED SVR OUTLOOK FOR
THIS SYSTEM ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SWRD INTO THE FA FIRST THRU NRN ME BY ERLY SUN MORN...THEN CONTG
TO OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTN. AFT MUCH COOLER HI TEMPS SUN
AFTN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...SUN NGT WILL BE A RELATIVELY CHILLY
NGT. MON SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH SUNNIEST SKIES ACROSS THE N...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING CLDS AND SHWRS LINGERING OVR THE GULF OF ME
WITH A FOLLOW-UP S/WV MOVG E OFF THE MID NEW COAST. BOTH MODELS
SHOW TUE TO CONT FAIR ATTM WITH SOME REBOUND IN HI TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KBHB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBGR FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. FROM 12Z WED TO 03Z THU,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.


SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN TSTMS AND HEAVIER
SHWRS THU AFTN AND LATE SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AND ANY PATCHY MORN
FOG OVR DOWNEAST SITES THU MORN...WHEN MVFR OF IFR CLGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WAVES AROUND 5 FT, WITH
SEAS ACTUALLY BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS, BUT AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS WILL LIKELY
CONT AT LEAST THRU THU...BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SINCE
STABLE SFC-500 M LAPSE RATES COULD REDUCE SFC WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP
WV HTS BLO 5 FT. WV HTS SHOULD DIMINISH THU NGT INTO FRI...BEFORE
SLOWLY BUILDING AGAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT TO POSSIBLE SCA WV HTS
AGAIN MSLY OVR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ONLY ABOUT 80 TO 85 PERCENT
OF FCST WW3 WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST DUE TO THE SEASONAL
HIGH WIND BIAS OF THE GFS...AND EVEN THESE RESULTANT WV HTS MAY BE
GENEROUS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




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