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000
FXUS61 KCAR 020840
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN
INCH. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ZONES
AS NO FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE EXPECTED THERE.  SOME SUNNY
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS. TOPS ON THESE SQUALLS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED H700. THE SQUALLS MAY DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW WITH QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
PRESQUE ISLE AND CARIBOU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE SQUALLS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HOULTON. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
35 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
THESE WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE CROWN OF
MAINE LATER TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO 25 BELOW. THE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING
THEN CREST OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW... ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF.. SKY
AND POPS. HAVE USED OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED
THE MOSG25 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR NORTH OF HUL EARLY THIS MORNING IN SNOW...THEN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR ALL
SITES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
PQI...CAR AND FVE. THESE SQUALLS COULD BE HEAVY WITH 1/4 MI VIS
AND 35 MPH GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE TWO EXTRA HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND
ADDED AN FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASED GUSTS WITH THE GALE TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 020840
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN
INCH. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ZONES
AS NO FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE EXPECTED THERE.  SOME SUNNY
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS. TOPS ON THESE SQUALLS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED H700. THE SQUALLS MAY DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW WITH QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
PRESQUE ISLE AND CARIBOU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE SQUALLS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HOULTON. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
35 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
THESE WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE CROWN OF
MAINE LATER TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO 25 BELOW. THE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING
THEN CREST OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW... ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF.. SKY
AND POPS. HAVE USED OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED
THE MOSG25 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR NORTH OF HUL EARLY THIS MORNING IN SNOW...THEN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR ALL
SITES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
PQI...CAR AND FVE. THESE SQUALLS COULD BE HEAVY WITH 1/4 MI VIS
AND 35 MPH GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE TWO EXTRA HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND
ADDED AN FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASED GUSTS WITH THE GALE TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 020840
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN
INCH. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ZONES
AS NO FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE EXPECTED THERE.  SOME SUNNY
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS. TOPS ON THESE SQUALLS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED H700. THE SQUALLS MAY DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW WITH QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
PRESQUE ISLE AND CARIBOU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE SQUALLS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HOULTON. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
35 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
THESE WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE CROWN OF
MAINE LATER TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO 25 BELOW. THE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING
THEN CREST OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW... ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF.. SKY
AND POPS. HAVE USED OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED
THE MOSG25 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR NORTH OF HUL EARLY THIS MORNING IN SNOW...THEN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR ALL
SITES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
PQI...CAR AND FVE. THESE SQUALLS COULD BE HEAVY WITH 1/4 MI VIS
AND 35 MPH GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE TWO EXTRA HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND
ADDED AN FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASED GUSTS WITH THE GALE TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 020840
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN
INCH. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ZONES
AS NO FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE EXPECTED THERE.  SOME SUNNY
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS. TOPS ON THESE SQUALLS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED H700. THE SQUALLS MAY DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW WITH QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
PRESQUE ISLE AND CARIBOU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE SQUALLS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HOULTON. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
35 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
THESE WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE CROWN OF
MAINE LATER TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO 25 BELOW. THE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING
THEN CREST OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW... ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF.. SKY
AND POPS. HAVE USED OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED
THE MOSG25 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR NORTH OF HUL EARLY THIS MORNING IN SNOW...THEN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR ALL
SITES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
PQI...CAR AND FVE. THESE SQUALLS COULD BE HEAVY WITH 1/4 MI VIS
AND 35 MPH GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE TWO EXTRA HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND
ADDED AN FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASED GUSTS WITH THE GALE TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 020523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MON MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DOWN EAST REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE
AREA BY 10Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL PICK UP THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT SOME SPOTS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORIES BUT SUSPECT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM DOWN EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO RAISE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR TO
LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 020523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MON MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DOWN EAST REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE
AREA BY 10Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL PICK UP THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT SOME SPOTS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORIES BUT SUSPECT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM DOWN EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO RAISE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR TO
LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 020220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MON MORNING AS IT
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DOWN EAST REGION OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW
OUT OF THE AREA BY 10Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL PICK UP THE MOST
SNOWFALL WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT
SOME SPOTS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORIES BUT SUSPECT THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM DOWN EARLY IN THE
MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO RAISE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR TO
LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 020220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MON MORNING AS IT
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DOWN EAST REGION OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW
OUT OF THE AREA BY 10Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL PICK UP THE MOST
SNOWFALL WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT
SOME SPOTS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORIES BUT SUSPECT THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM DOWN EARLY IN THE
MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO RAISE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR TO
LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...LOW PRES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING WILL
JOIN FORCES WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SFC LOW
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY
MON AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE EASTERN MARITIMES. CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN UP. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH. LITTLE/NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NW MAINE. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR
TERM MODELS. THE SMOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWN A BIT
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...LOW PRES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING WILL
JOIN FORCES WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SFC LOW
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY
MON AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE EASTERN MARITIMES. CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN UP. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH. LITTLE/NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NW MAINE. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR
TERM MODELS. THE SMOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWN A BIT
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/BERDES
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 012037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&
$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...HEWITT/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 012037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&
$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...HEWITT/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&
$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...HEWITT/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 012037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&
$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...HEWITT/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011827
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS PULLING EASTWARD PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME WARMING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED W/THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SET TO
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES W/SOME NORTHERN AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 20S AND DOWNEAST
TOPPING 30F.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SNOW SOME PRECIP(LIGHT) MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN MAINE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WAS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM MODELS WERE
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP W/DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE SW AND
DOWNEAST AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE ON THIS LATER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011827
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS PULLING EASTWARD PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME WARMING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED W/THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SET TO
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES W/SOME NORTHERN AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 20S AND DOWNEAST
TOPPING 30F.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SNOW SOME PRECIP(LIGHT) MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN MAINE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WAS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM MODELS WERE
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP W/DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE SW AND
DOWNEAST AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE ON THIS LATER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 011827
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS PULLING EASTWARD PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME WARMING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED W/THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SET TO
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES W/SOME NORTHERN AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 20S AND DOWNEAST
TOPPING 30F.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SNOW SOME PRECIP(LIGHT) MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN MAINE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WAS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM MODELS WERE
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP W/DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE SW AND
DOWNEAST AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE ON THIS LATER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011827
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS PULLING EASTWARD PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME WARMING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED W/THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SET TO
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES W/SOME NORTHERN AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 20S AND DOWNEAST
TOPPING 30F.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SNOW SOME PRECIP(LIGHT) MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN MAINE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WAS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM MODELS WERE
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP W/DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE SW AND
DOWNEAST AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE ON THIS LATER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 011507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MEET THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. A NICE AFTERNOON SETTING UP FOR THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING PERCENTAGES UP ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 011507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MEET THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. A NICE AFTERNOON SETTING UP FOR THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING PERCENTAGES UP ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MEET THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. A NICE AFTERNOON SETTING UP FOR THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING PERCENTAGES UP ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 011507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MEET THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. A NICE AFTERNOON SETTING UP FOR THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING PERCENTAGES UP ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011129
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT BANGOR WITH -13F RECORDED. THE PREVIOUS LOW
WAS -11F. THE LOWEST READINGS IN THE FORECAST AREA WERE AROUND
-18F.

OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND HAVE REDUCED SNOW TOTALS BY AN INCH OR TWO WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF ANY ADVISORIES DIMINISHING. ALSO ADJUSTED
TONIGHT`S LOW UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHALLOW INVERSION FEATURING SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK
QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT SATURDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO
HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE
THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW
SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS
WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS
FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 5
INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL
LATER TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011129
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT BANGOR WITH -13F RECORDED. THE PREVIOUS LOW
WAS -11F. THE LOWEST READINGS IN THE FORECAST AREA WERE AROUND
-18F.

OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND HAVE REDUCED SNOW TOTALS BY AN INCH OR TWO WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF ANY ADVISORIES DIMINISHING. ALSO ADJUSTED
TONIGHT`S LOW UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHALLOW INVERSION FEATURING SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK
QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT SATURDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO
HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE
THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW
SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS
WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS
FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 5
INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL
LATER TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010808
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
308 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHALLOW INVERSION FEATURING SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK
QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT SATURDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO
HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE
THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW
SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS
WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS
FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 5
INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL
LATER TODAY. &&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR...BHB AND PERHAPS HUL.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010808
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
308 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHALLOW INVERSION FEATURING SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK
QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT SATURDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO
HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE
THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW
SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS
WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS
FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 5
INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL
LATER TODAY. &&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR...BHB AND PERHAPS HUL.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010808
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
308 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHALLOW INVERSION FEATURING SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK
QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT SATURDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO
HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE
THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW
SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS
WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS
FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 5
INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL
LATER TODAY. &&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR...BHB AND PERHAPS HUL.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010329
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1029 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
727 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
727 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE TREMENDOUS
VARIABILITY FROM AS LOW AS 24 BELOW AT MASARDIS TO LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AT HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. AT THESE HIGHER TERRAIN SITES...WINDS
REMAINED STEADY ALL NIGHT AND PREVENTED A DEEP INVERSION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE TREMENDOUS
VARIABILITY FROM AS LOW AS 24 BELOW AT MASARDIS TO LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AT HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. AT THESE HIGHER TERRAIN SITES...WINDS
REMAINED STEADY ALL NIGHT AND PREVENTED A DEEP INVERSION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280730
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
230 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW DECOUPLING
IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F WHERE WINDS
GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE REGISTERED
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN
OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280730
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
230 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW DECOUPLING
IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F WHERE WINDS
GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE REGISTERED
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN
OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271721
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1221 PM UPDATE...THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
IS WORKING ITS MAGIC AND TEMPS ARE RESPONDING NICELY. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS ARE AT THE FORECAST HIGHS AND WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271721
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1221 PM UPDATE...THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
IS WORKING ITS MAGIC AND TEMPS ARE RESPONDING NICELY. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS ARE AT THE FORECAST HIGHS AND WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271123
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 AM UPDATE: VISUAL OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLRG HAS
ADVCD FASTER ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME ERLY THIS MORN THAN PREV
THOUGHT...SO WE REDUCED CLD CVR OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA THIS
MORN.

OTHERWISE...WE INCLUDE LATEST HRLY 5-6 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND UPDATE
ERLY MORN LOWS WITH TEMPS AT LCTNS EXCEEDING PRIOR LOW TEMPS WITH
THESE LATEST OBS...MOSTLY OVR FAR NW ME... WHERE CLRG SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN AN DEEPER ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN. WE THEN MODIFIED FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FROM LAST
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271123
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 AM UPDATE: VISUAL OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLRG HAS
ADVCD FASTER ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME ERLY THIS MORN THAN PREV
THOUGHT...SO WE REDUCED CLD CVR OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA THIS
MORN.

OTHERWISE...WE INCLUDE LATEST HRLY 5-6 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND UPDATE
ERLY MORN LOWS WITH TEMPS AT LCTNS EXCEEDING PRIOR LOW TEMPS WITH
THESE LATEST OBS...MOSTLY OVR FAR NW ME... WHERE CLRG SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN AN DEEPER ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN. WE THEN MODIFIED FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FROM LAST
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN





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