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000
FXUS61 KCAR 221319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: HRLY FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MODIFIED FOR
A MORE REALISTIC RATE OF RISE CURVE INTO THE AFTN HRS BY UTILIZING
OBSVD MORN LOWS...8-9 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN
FCST HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO CLD
CVR GOING INTO THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT TRENDS FROM SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: HRLY FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MODIFIED FOR
A MORE REALISTIC RATE OF RISE CURVE INTO THE AFTN HRS BY UTILIZING
OBSVD MORN LOWS...8-9 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN
FCST HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO CLD
CVR GOING INTO THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT TRENDS FROM SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221048
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

645 AM UPDATE: REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO FIT THE LATEST CONDITIONS. STRATUS IS
STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND PULL BACK FROM THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221048
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

645 AM UPDATE: REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO FIT THE LATEST CONDITIONS. STRATUS IS
STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND PULL BACK FROM THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 220727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS SEEN ON THE LATEST GOES E SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG HANGING ALONG ROCKLAND AND OFFSHORE
ATTM. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CREEP INTO THE
COASTAL REGIONS THIS MORNING AND HANG ON INTO MID MORNING.
THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE HRRR IS TOO FAST.
THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON KEEPING THE STRATUS AND FOG BEYOND 12Z.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING.

OTHER THAN THAT, HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS SEEN ON THE LATEST GOES E SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG HANGING ALONG ROCKLAND AND OFFSHORE
ATTM. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CREEP INTO THE
COASTAL REGIONS THIS MORNING AND HANG ON INTO MID MORNING.
THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE HRRR IS TOO FAST.
THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON KEEPING THE STRATUS AND FOG BEYOND 12Z.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING.

OTHER THAN THAT, HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI










000
FXUS61 KCAR 220502
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
102 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...BROUGHT STRATUS THAT IS RESIDING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE IN ALONG THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM HAD THIS HANDLED OK BUT A BIT QUICK. THEREFORE,
BACKED THE TIMING BACK BY ABOUT 2 HRS. BROUGHT HR LY TEMPERATURES
IN LINE W/THE CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.
OFFSHORE STRATUS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KBHB VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220502
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
102 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...BROUGHT STRATUS THAT IS RESIDING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE IN ALONG THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM HAD THIS HANDLED OK BUT A BIT QUICK. THEREFORE,
BACKED THE TIMING BACK BY ABOUT 2 HRS. BROUGHT HR LY TEMPERATURES
IN LINE W/THE CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.
OFFSHORE STRATUS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KBHB VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220130
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE SKY GRIDS. SATELLITE
PICTURES INDICATE AN AREA OF STRATUS ABOUT 60 MILES OFFSHORE THAT
IS CREEPING TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.
OFFSHORE STRATUS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KBHB VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 212225
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE...A QUIET EVENING. THE CU ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IS ALSO RAPIDLY
WANING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT ALL IN ALL THE
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 212225
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE...A QUIET EVENING. THE CU ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IS ALSO RAPIDLY
WANING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT ALL IN ALL THE
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211956
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS












000
FXUS61 KCAR 211956
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS











000
FXUS61 KCAR 211530
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE: WE AGAIN UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST AFTN HI
TEMPS BASED ON TRENDS SHOWED FROM 11 AM OBS...WHICH WE DID NOT
FURTHER MODIFY FCST HI TEMPS FROM LAST FCST. OTHERWISE...WE HELD
OFF SKIES FROM BECOMING PTLY CLDY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS LATER...WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWING MCLR SKIES
HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE MIDDAY HRS.

ORIGINAL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND
HAVE USED THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE
BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211326
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY UPWARDS
MODIFIED HI TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WHICH BASED ON SAT IMAGERY...IS SUNNIER ATTM THEN
ANTICIPATED IN PREV FCST UPDATES. AFTN POPS ACROSS WRN PTNS OF
THE FA WERE LOWERED TO ISOLD SHWRS BASED ON HRLY SIMULATED RADAR
REF FROM THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHWRS.
THIS IS LIKELY RELATED TO A MID LVL CAP LCTD BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KFT
AGL...WHICH WILL LARGELY PREVENT FREE CNVCTN THIS AFTN.

ORIGINAL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND
HAVE USED THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE
BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211326
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY UPWARDS
MODIFIED HI TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WHICH BASED ON SAT IMAGERY...IS SUNNIER ATTM THEN
ANTICIPATED IN PREV FCST UPDATES. AFTN POPS ACROSS WRN PTNS OF
THE FA WERE LOWERED TO ISOLD SHWRS BASED ON HRLY SIMULATED RADAR
REF FROM THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHWRS.
THIS IS LIKELY RELATED TO A MID LVL CAP LCTD BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KFT
AGL...WHICH WILL LARGELY PREVENT FREE CNVCTN THIS AFTN.

ORIGINAL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND
HAVE USED THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE
BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH TODAY THEN
CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND HAVE USED
THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 210808
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
408 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH TODAY THEN
CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND HAVE USED
THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 210808
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
408 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH TODAY THEN
CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND HAVE USED
THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 210428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1220 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING NORTHERN MAINE ATTM PER
THE LATEST RADAR LOOP BUT ANOTHER TRAVELING NE ACROSS WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WAS IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROF
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OFF THE MAINE COAST. KEPT 20-30% FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BASED ON THIS SETUP. ADJUSTED
THE TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS W/DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH AREA WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT
THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS...
WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS
INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN
HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY
WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT
A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS...
SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR
SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE
LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT
AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH,
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING
SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING
WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS
DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY
LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS
BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 210115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
914 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THEY APPEAR TO BE CAUSED BY A VERY WEAK OFFSHORE
LOW AND THUS ARE NOT DIEING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES AND TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE NEW BRUNSWICK
BORDER UNTIL AROUND 05Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONE AREA WHERE THERE
CURRENTLY IS CONCERN FOR SOME SHOWERS IS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DOVER-FOXCROFT AND GREENVILLE AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EAST AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AS THESE SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE HIGH IN
PLACE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THE SHOWERS
ARE TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
ONLY BEING DETECTED ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN OVER SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOTT COUNTIES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH POPS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT EXPECT THE TREND TO BE TOWARD MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE SMOKE HIGH ALOFT
FROM THE FIRES IN THE WEST ALSO ADDING TO THIS.

ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 50S...COOLEST WEST AND WARMEST EAST.

FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT
THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS...
WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS
INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN
HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY
WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT
A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS...
SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR
SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE
LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT
AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH,
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING
SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING
WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS
DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY
LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS
BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN









000
FXUS61 KCAR 210115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
914 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THEY APPEAR TO BE CAUSED BY A VERY WEAK OFFSHORE
LOW AND THUS ARE NOT DIEING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES AND TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE NEW BRUNSWICK
BORDER UNTIL AROUND 05Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONE AREA WHERE THERE
CURRENTLY IS CONCERN FOR SOME SHOWERS IS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DOVER-FOXCROFT AND GREENVILLE AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EAST AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AS THESE SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE HIGH IN
PLACE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THE SHOWERS
ARE TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
ONLY BEING DETECTED ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN OVER SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOTT COUNTIES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH POPS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT EXPECT THE TREND TO BE TOWARD MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE SMOKE HIGH ALOFT
FROM THE FIRES IN THE WEST ALSO ADDING TO THIS.

ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 50S...COOLEST WEST AND WARMEST EAST.

FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT
THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS...
WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS
INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN
HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY
WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT
A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS...
SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR
SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE
LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT
AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH,
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING
SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING
WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS
DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY
LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS
BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
633 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO THE POPS/WX FOR
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT
NE TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT
MILLINOCKET WITH MEASURABLE RAIN AT KOKADJO WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. THE KCBW 88-RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
(0.75") IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE PAST 3
HOURS...BUT BELIEVE THE RADAR HAS LIKELY OVERESTIMATED RAINFALL IN
THIS AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER AND
FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AND THAT WAS THE MAIN
UPDATE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONE AREA WHERE THERE
CURRENTLY IS CONCERN FOR SOME SHOWERS IS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DOVER-FOXCROFT AND GREENVILLE AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EAST AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AS THESE SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE HIGH IN
PLACE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THE SHOWERS
ARE TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
ONLY BEING DETECTED ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN OVER SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOTT COUNTIES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH POPS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT EXPECT THE TREND TO BE TOWARD MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE SMOKE HIGH ALOFT
FROM THE FIRES IN THE WEST ALSO ADDING TO THIS.

ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 50S...COOLEST WEST AND WARMEST EAST.

FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT
THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS...
WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS
INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN
HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY
WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT
A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS...
SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR
SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE
LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT
AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH,
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING
SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING
WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS
DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY
LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS
BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
633 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO THE POPS/WX FOR
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT
NE TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT
MILLINOCKET WITH MEASURABLE RAIN AT KOKADJO WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. THE KCBW 88-RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
(0.75") IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE PAST 3
HOURS...BUT BELIEVE THE RADAR HAS LIKELY OVERESTIMATED RAINFALL IN
THIS AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER AND
FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AND THAT WAS THE MAIN
UPDATE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONE AREA WHERE THERE
CURRENTLY IS CONCERN FOR SOME SHOWERS IS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DOVER-FOXCROFT AND GREENVILLE AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EAST AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AS THESE SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE HIGH IN
PLACE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THE SHOWERS
ARE TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
ONLY BEING DETECTED ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN OVER SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOTT COUNTIES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH POPS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT EXPECT THE TREND TO BE TOWARD MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE SMOKE HIGH ALOFT
FROM THE FIRES IN THE WEST ALSO ADDING TO THIS.

ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 50S...COOLEST WEST AND WARMEST EAST.

FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT
THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS...
WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS
INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN
HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY
WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT
A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS...
SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR
SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE
LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT
AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH,
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING
SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING
WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS
DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY
LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS
BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THE ONE AREA WHERE THERE CURRENTLY IS CONCERN FOR SOME
SHOWERS IS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS
DOVER-FOXCROFT AND GREENVILLE AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EAST
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AS
THESE SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE HIGH IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH
REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ONLY BEING DETECTED ALOFT.
CONSEQUENTLY DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN OVER SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOTT COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
POPS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT EXPECT
THE TREND TO BE TOWARD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH THE SMOKE HIGH ALOFT FROM THE FIRES IN THE WEST ALSO ADDING
TO THIS.

ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 50S...COOLEST WEST AND WARMEST EAST.

FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT
THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS...
WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS
INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN
HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY
WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT
A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS...
SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR
SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE
LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT
AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH,
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING
SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING
WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS
DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY
LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS
BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN












000
FXUS61 KCAR 201947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THE ONE AREA WHERE THERE CURRENTLY IS CONCERN FOR SOME
SHOWERS IS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS
DOVER-FOXCROFT AND GREENVILLE AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EAST
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AS
THESE SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE HIGH IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH
REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ONLY BEING DETECTED ALOFT.
CONSEQUENTLY DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN OVER SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOTT COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
POPS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT EXPECT
THE TREND TO BE TOWARD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH THE SMOKE HIGH ALOFT FROM THE FIRES IN THE WEST ALSO ADDING
TO THIS.

ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 50S...COOLEST WEST AND WARMEST EAST.

FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT
THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS...
WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS
INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN
HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY
WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT
A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS...
SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR
SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE
LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT
AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH,
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING
SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING
WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS
DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY
LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS
BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN











000
FXUS61 KCAR 201657
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1255 PM EDT: RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS TRACKING NORTH AND EAST IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS AREA HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE / SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST. ALSO MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS SHOWING SOME POPS BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. WILL USE BLEND OF
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS. FOR SKY HAVE USED THE
NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS FROM THE MOSG25 BUT
EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201657
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1255 PM EDT: RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS TRACKING NORTH AND EAST IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS AREA HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE / SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST. ALSO MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS SHOWING SOME POPS BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. WILL USE BLEND OF
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS. FOR SKY HAVE USED THE
NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS FROM THE MOSG25 BUT
EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1000 AM EDT: AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN MAINE AT THIS HOUR. WHILE WE EXPECT THIS
AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO HIGH PRESSURE WE DO EXPECT IT MAY HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFOR,
BUMPED UP POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. FINALLY, DROPPED HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF
FOR POPS. FOR SKY HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE
WIND GRIDS FROM THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1000 AM EDT: AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN MAINE AT THIS HOUR. WHILE WE EXPECT THIS
AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO HIGH PRESSURE WE DO EXPECT IT MAY HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFOR,
BUMPED UP POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. FINALLY, DROPPED HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF
FOR POPS. FOR SKY HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE
WIND GRIDS FROM THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
803 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0800 EDT: INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH
AND ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF
FOR POPS. FOR SKY HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE
WIND GRIDS FROM THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
803 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0800 EDT: INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH
AND ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF
FOR POPS. FOR SKY HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE
WIND GRIDS FROM THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0630 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE... NO
OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS
SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK.
WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS. FOR SKY
HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS FROM
THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0630 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE... NO
OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS
SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK.
WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS. FOR SKY
HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS FROM
THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 200835
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
435 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS
SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK.
WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS. FOR SKY
HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS FROM
THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 200835
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
435 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS
SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK.
WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS. FOR SKY
HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS FROM
THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB
LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED
SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD
TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE
800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AS WINDS GO SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO
BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.
MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS
CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE
GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY
FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT
BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0030 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND TEMPERATURE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RETREAT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NNE BUT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW
MAINE AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES
AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL
BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY
STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING
LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID
DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS
THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES
OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND.

SHORT TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0030 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND TEMPERATURE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RETREAT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NNE BUT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW
MAINE AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES
AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL
BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY
STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING
LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID
DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS
THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES
OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND.

SHORT TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 200140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MOVING NORTH
TOWARD THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST IR
SAT IMAGERY. THIS NECESSITATED RAISING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.
ALSO...RE-INTERPOLATED SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE
FACT THE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RETREAT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NNE BUT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW
MAINE AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES
AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL
BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY
STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING
LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID
DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS
THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES
OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND.

SHORT TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MOVING NORTH
TOWARD THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST IR
SAT IMAGERY. THIS NECESSITATED RAISING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.
ALSO...RE-INTERPOLATED SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE
FACT THE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RETREAT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NNE BUT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW
MAINE AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES
AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL
BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY
STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING
LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID
DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS
THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES
OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND.

SHORT TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 192225
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT DOWNEAST
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RETREAT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NNE BUT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW
MAINE AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES
AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL
BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY
STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING
LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID
DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS
THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES
OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND.

SHORT TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETREAT
TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NNE BUT
WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW MAINE AS
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES
AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL
BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY
STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING
LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID
DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS
THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES
OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND.

SHORT TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETREAT
TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NNE BUT
WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW MAINE AS
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES
AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL
BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY
STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING
LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID
DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS
THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES
OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND.

SHORT TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 191616
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1216 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
OFF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1216 PM UPDATE...A SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER SW MAINE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY THIS
EVENING. THE SKY CONTINUES TO HAVE A MILKY APPEARANCE IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO SMOKE ALOFT FROM FIRES IN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZY WORDING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT HAS
TO SOME DEGREE SLOWED CU FORMATION AND MAY ALSO KEEP THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE
BEEN. THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST MSAS DATA AND SPC
MESO ANALYSIS PAGE...AND WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NW MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY THEN MOVE
TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... HOWEVER EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE TO BLOCK NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS... SREF AND ECMWF. FOR SKY COVER
HAVE USED THE NAM... GFS... CMCREG AND ECMWF. WIND GRIDS FROM THE
MOSG25. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS
ALL. FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TERM FOR THE MOST
PART W/COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES HOLDS STRONG.

THE CAVEAT TO THE ABOVE WILL BE A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM FOR
THE FAR N AND W. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME UNSTABLE AND SB
CAPES ARE PROJECTED TO HIT 500-800J/KG W/LIS DOWN TO -2. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 1.0". THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT
850MBS BUT IT IS LIMITED TO THE FAR N AND W AND THIS IS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY
W/20-30% POPS FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
AND NO PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER S AND E. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
WAS LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVING NE. THE LATEST
PROJECTION IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN E OF THE MAINE COAST
KEEPING THE COASTAL AREAS DRY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS
W/READINGS AOA 80F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE HELD IN THE 70S DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL HOLD STRONG INTO TUESDAY AND THEN A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE HUMID AS DEW POINTS CLIMB
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT UP BUT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS AND FURTHER S W/THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NO HIGHER THAN 40% AND
THEREFORE DECIDED TO GO W/30-40% FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TSTMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR INTO TUESDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
FOR KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR OR IFR COULD DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING W/A LIGHT SSE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY W/A 9-11
SECOND PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY THE SWELL MOST LIKELY CONTINUING. WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FT INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/HEWITT








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