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000
FXUS61 KCAR 201121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
721 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE DOWNEAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
715 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS WHICH WAS SHOWING MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE CWA W/LOWER
20S ACROSS THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A TRANQUIL FORECAST FOR THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC SLIDING SE. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CWA TODAY AND THEN SLIDE E TONIGHT. WE
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS EASTER SUNDAY AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE OR SSE WIND IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP THE DOWNEAST AND IN PARTICULAR
BANGOR AND THE COAST COOLER DUE TO THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE SKY PERCENTAGES
OVERNIGHT TO SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL CAP OVERNIGHT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION TO SET BY THE EVENING AND W/CLEAR
SKIES TO START, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING
OFF LATER ON. LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS COULD SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE LATEST FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S...UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NORTH...AND LOWER 50S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS MONDAY COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW APPROACHES AND THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR WILL RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE WELL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT W/A SSE
WIND SETTING UP AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE E. WINDS 10-15 KTS AT
BEST W/SEAS 2-3 FT.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THINGS HAVE REALLY SETTLED DOWN SINCE LAST EVENING AS THE ICE JAM
ON THE ST. JOHN HAD BROKEN UP SOME AND MOVED DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. THE GAGE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER AT GRAND FALLS WAS
FALLING W/REPORTS OF ICE FLOWING THROUGH IT. NO OTHER REPORTS
ATTM. WE SHOULD HAVE SOMETHING MORE LATER THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, RIVER LEVELS KEEP DROPPING INCLUDING THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER. NOTHING SERIOUS BEING REPORTED ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG, JUST
SOME LOW LANDS BEING INUNDATED WITH WATER. THE TREND IS FOR ALL
RIVERS TO KEEP RECEDING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
721 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE DOWNEAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
715 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS WHICH WAS SHOWING MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE CWA W/LOWER
20S ACROSS THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A TRANQUIL FORECAST FOR THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC SLIDING SE. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CWA TODAY AND THEN SLIDE E TONIGHT. WE
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS EASTER SUNDAY AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE OR SSE WIND IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP THE DOWNEAST AND IN PARTICULAR
BANGOR AND THE COAST COOLER DUE TO THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE SKY PERCENTAGES
OVERNIGHT TO SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL CAP OVERNIGHT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION TO SET BY THE EVENING AND W/CLEAR
SKIES TO START, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING
OFF LATER ON. LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS COULD SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE LATEST FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S...UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NORTH...AND LOWER 50S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS MONDAY COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW APPROACHES AND THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR WILL RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE WELL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT W/A SSE
WIND SETTING UP AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE E. WINDS 10-15 KTS AT
BEST W/SEAS 2-3 FT.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THINGS HAVE REALLY SETTLED DOWN SINCE LAST EVENING AS THE ICE JAM
ON THE ST. JOHN HAD BROKEN UP SOME AND MOVED DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. THE GAGE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER AT GRAND FALLS WAS
FALLING W/REPORTS OF ICE FLOWING THROUGH IT. NO OTHER REPORTS
ATTM. WE SHOULD HAVE SOMETHING MORE LATER THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, RIVER LEVELS KEEP DROPPING INCLUDING THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER. NOTHING SERIOUS BEING REPORTED ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG, JUST
SOME LOW LANDS BEING INUNDATED WITH WATER. THE TREND IS FOR ALL
RIVERS TO KEEP RECEDING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200905
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
505 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE DOWNEAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A TRANQUIL FORECAST FOR THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC SLIDING SE. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CWA TODAY AND THEN SLIDE E TONIGHT. WE
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS EASTER SUNDAY AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE OR SSE WIND IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP THE DOWNEAST AND IN PARTICULAR
BANGOR AND THE COAST COOLER DUE TO THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE SKY PERCENTAGES
OVERNIGHT TO SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL CAP OVERNIGHT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION TO SET BY THE EVENING AND W/CLEAR
SKIES TO START, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING
OFF LATER ON. LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS COULD SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE LATEST FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S...UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NORTH...AND LOWER 50S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS MONDAY COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW APPROACHES AND THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR WILL RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE WELL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT W/A SSE
WIND SETTING UP AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE E. WINDS 10-15 KTS AT
BEST W/SEAS 2-3 FT.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THINGS HAVE REALLY SETTLED DOWN SINCE LAST EVENING AS THE ICE JAM
ON THE ST. JOHN HAD BROKEN UP SOME AND MOVED DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. THE GAGE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER AT GRAND FALLS WAS
FALLING W/REPORTS OF ICE FLOWING THROUGH IT. NO OTHER REPORTS
ATTM. WE SHOULD HAVE SOMETHING MORE LATER THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, RIVER LEVELS KEEP DROPPING INCLUDING THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER. NOTHING SERIOUS BEING REPORTED ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG, JUST
SOME LOW LANDS BEING INUNDATED WITH WATER. THE TREND IS FOR ALL
RIVERS TO KEEP RECEDING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200602 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
107 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY W/CLEARING AND A COOLDOWN
ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND BACKED THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SHOWING WINDS SPEEDS GOING BELOW 10 MPH BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF MVFR IN FAR EASTERN MAINE WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ICE ON THE ST JOHN MAY GET FLUSHED
OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY FIELD
FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF THREATS TO ROADS
OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH AND IS STILL
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS
IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, EFFECTS FROM THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR AND CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG AND KINGMAN
THIS EVENING NOT INDICATING ANY PROBLEMS. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT











000
FXUS61 KCAR 200602 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
107 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY W/CLEARING AND A COOLDOWN
ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND BACKED THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SHOWING WINDS SPEEDS GOING BELOW 10 MPH BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF MVFR IN FAR EASTERN MAINE WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ICE ON THE ST JOHN MAY GET FLUSHED
OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY FIELD
FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF THREATS TO ROADS
OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH AND IS STILL
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS
IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, EFFECTS FROM THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR AND CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG AND KINGMAN
THIS EVENING NOT INDICATING ANY PROBLEMS. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT












000
FXUS61 KCAR 200510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
107 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY W/CLEARING AND A COOLDOWN
ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND BACKED THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SHOWING WINDS SPEEDS GOING BELOW 10 MPH BY BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF MVFR IN FAR EASTERN MAINE WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ICE ON THE ST JOHN MAY GET FLUSHED
OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY FIELD
FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF THREATS TO ROADS
OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH AND IS STILL
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS
IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, EFFECTS FROM THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR AND CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG AND KINGMAN
THIS EVENING NOT INDICATING ANY PROBLEMS. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 200510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
107 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY W/CLEARING AND A COOLDOWN
ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND BACKED THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SHOWING WINDS SPEEDS GOING BELOW 10 MPH BY BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF MVFR IN FAR EASTERN MAINE WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ICE ON THE ST JOHN MAY GET FLUSHED
OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY FIELD
FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF THREATS TO ROADS
OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH AND IS STILL
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS
IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, EFFECTS FROM THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR AND CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG AND KINGMAN
THIS EVENING NOT INDICATING ANY PROBLEMS. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
954 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
953 PM UPDATE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CU/STRATOCU IS DISSIPATING
AND CONFINED TO EXTREME EASTERN MAINE. THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. THE WIND
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION. THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST SPOTS TO
DECOUPLE...AND THUS WILL BE THE COLDEST SPOTS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO EXPECT DECREASING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF MVFR IN FAR EASTERN MAINE WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS THIS EVENING THAT THE ICE JAM VCNT GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN IS
ON THE MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ON THE ST JOHN MAY GET FLUSHED OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY FIELD FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN
NO REPORTS OF THREATS TO ROADS OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER
REMAINS HIGH AND IS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE
TOWN OF MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER, EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR AND CALLS TO
MATTAWAMKEAG AND KINGMAN THIS EVENING NOT INDICATING ANY PROBLEMS.
OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/CB










000
FXUS61 KCAR 192300
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
700 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CU AND STRATOCU ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THE LONGEST ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. A GUSTY WIND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE TEENS IN THE BROAD VALLEYS OF NW MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE
COAST. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES...AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO EXPECT DECREASING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF KFVE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. KFVE WILL
HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH 00Z, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING RELATIVELY COLD AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARMER
SEAS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STATIC ON AREA RIVERS. ICE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE SAINT JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIKELY FIELD FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS
OF THREATS TO ROADS OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH
AND IS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF
MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 192300
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
700 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CU AND STRATOCU ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THE LONGEST ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. A GUSTY WIND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE TEENS IN THE BROAD VALLEYS OF NW MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE
COAST. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES...AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO EXPECT DECREASING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF KFVE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. KFVE WILL
HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH 00Z, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING RELATIVELY COLD AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARMER
SEAS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STATIC ON AREA RIVERS. ICE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE SAINT JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIKELY FIELD FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS
OF THREATS TO ROADS OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH
AND IS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF
MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 192011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO EXPECT DECREASING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF KFVE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. KFVE WILL
HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH 00Z, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING RELATIVELY COLD AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARMER
SEAS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STATIC ON AREA RIVERS. ICE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE SAINT JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIKELY FIELD FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS
OF THREATS TO ROADS OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH
AND IS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF
MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS











000
FXUS61 KCAR 192011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO EXPECT DECREASING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF KFVE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. KFVE WILL
HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH 00Z, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING RELATIVELY COLD AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARMER
SEAS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STATIC ON AREA RIVERS. ICE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE SAINT JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIKELY FIELD FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS
OF THREATS TO ROADS OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH
AND IS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF
MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 191633
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW CLEARING THE COAST,
WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ALL THE WAY TO BAR HARBOR. AS
SUCH, DON`T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH MORE THAN WHERE THEY
ARE NOW, WITH NORTHERN SITES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN FALLING A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WORST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO
AN END AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION,
BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS ACCORDING
TO CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS
FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10".
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH
GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM).
THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN
THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS
STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING
W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS
BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT
HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC
HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS
W/GYX THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN
W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM PER THE LAW ENFORCMENT PER
PHONE CALL THIS MORNING AT 620 AM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM FROM
THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND NOW
FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IS
FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 191633
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW CLEARING THE COAST,
WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ALL THE WAY TO BAR HARBOR. AS
SUCH, DON`T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH MORE THAN WHERE THEY
ARE NOW, WITH NORTHERN SITES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN FALLING A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WORST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO
AN END AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION,
BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS ACCORDING
TO CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS
FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10".
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH
GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM).
THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN
THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS
STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING
W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS
BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT
HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC
HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS
W/GYX THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN
W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM PER THE LAW ENFORCMENT PER
PHONE CALL THIS MORNING AT 620 AM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM FROM
THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND NOW
FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IS
FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
817 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
815 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS
FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10".
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH
GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM).
THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN
THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS
STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING
W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS
BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT
HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC
HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS
W/GYX THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN
W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM PER THE LAW ENFORCMENT PER
PHONE CALL THIS MORNING AT 620 AM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM FROM
THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND NOW
FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IS
FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 191110
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
710 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
710 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN AND MOVED THINGS FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE DOWNEAST W/A CHANCE FOR RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY. KEPT THE FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS
FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES
BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES
OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10". ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH
GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM).
THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN
THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS
STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING
W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS
BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT
HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC
HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS
W/GYX THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN
W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM PER THE LAW ENFORCMENT PER
PHONE CALL THIS MORNING AT 620 AM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM FROM
THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND NOW
FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IS
FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS
FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES
BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES
OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10". ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH
GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM).
THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN
THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS
STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING
W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS
BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT
HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC
HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS
W/GYX THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN
W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM
FROM THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND
NOW FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER
IS FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/KHW/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/KHW/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS
FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES
BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES
OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10". ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH
GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM).
THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN
THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS
STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING
W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS
BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT
HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC
HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS
W/GYX THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN
W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM
FROM THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND
NOW FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER
IS FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/KHW/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/KHW/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE
LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE
LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190139
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
939 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
939 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DID INCREASE THE POPS JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT. ALSO INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190139
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
939 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
939 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DID INCREASE THE POPS JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT. ALSO INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 182230
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TON INTO SAT MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
WOULD INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM HOULTON NORTH WITH A MIX
TO THE SOUTH. THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182230
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TON INTO SAT MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
WOULD INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM HOULTON NORTH WITH A MIX
TO THE SOUTH. THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 182013
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
413 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING AND
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM.  THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO...
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR... &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...










000
FXUS61 KCAR 182013
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
413 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING AND
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM.  THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO...
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR... &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 181710
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS W/ WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED W/ AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT. HIGH CLDS THICK ENUF ACROSS THE W AND N SO STILL SOME
QUESTION THAT FCST HIGHS ACROSS THESE AREAS CAN BE REACHED. AT
BEST WILL ONLY FALL A A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO WILL HOLD THE
COURSE FOR NOW. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE DETAILED
BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 181710
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS W/ WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED W/ AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT. HIGH CLDS THICK ENUF ACROSS THE W AND N SO STILL SOME
QUESTION THAT FCST HIGHS ACROSS THESE AREAS CAN BE REACHED. AT
BEST WILL ONLY FALL A A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO WILL HOLD THE
COURSE FOR NOW. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE DETAILED
BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 181327
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
927 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS... WEAK WAA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. MAIN WX FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE
TEMPS AND SKY COVER. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE
DETAILED BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 181327
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
927 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS... WEAK WAA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. MAIN WX FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE
TEMPS AND SKY COVER. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE
DETAILED BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 181103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
703 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND WHAT SATELLITE WAS INDICATING. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PULL OUT LATER THIS MORNING W/WEAK WAA ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND AROOSTOOK
EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER LEVELS ARE
RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 181103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
703 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND WHAT SATELLITE WAS INDICATING. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PULL OUT LATER THIS MORNING W/WEAK WAA ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND AROOSTOOK
EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER LEVELS ARE
RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 180950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
545 AM UPDATE: COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AROOSTOOK EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER
LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
545 AM UPDATE: COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AROOSTOOK EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER
LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 180751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM THROUGH 8 AM WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FOR THE ST. JOHN RIVER. DOWN INTO SW PENOBSCOT COUNTY
NEAR DEXTER, CONCERNS EXIST FOR MORE PROBLEMS W/MELTING TODAY W/AREAL
FLOOD WARNING IN PLACE. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD
STAGE W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.12 FT AND STILL RISING. THE
MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT
INTO THE EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK
RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS REPORTEDLY
IMPROVING. WE WILL ASSESS THE FLOOD WATCH AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING
LATER ON THIS MORNING W/THE 7 AM UPDATE.

NOW FOR THE ST. JOHN RIVER: THE ICE JAM IN ST. FRANCIS BROKE
OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED DOWN THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN BUREN. WATER
LEVELS DROPPED DRAMATICALLY FROM ST. FRANCIS DOWN TO FORT KENT. WE
ARE TALKING 2-4 FT WITHIN ONE HOURS TIME. THIS IS A GOOD EXAMPLE
HOW WATER LEVELS REACT W/ICE JAMS. LATEST REPORTS FROM LAW
ENFORCEMENT, EMA AND DOT ARE THAT THE ICE IS MOVING WELL, BUT IN
TACT. THE THICKNESS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 18-24". THE AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE ST. FRANCIS REGION WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT











000
FXUS61 KCAR 180447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS AS THEY
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: ICE JAM HAS RELEASED IN ST. FRANCIS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER
PER THE EMA AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT
REGION. THE MDOT IS HEADING OUT TO ASSESS THINGS. THE ICE WAS
HEADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FORT KENT REGION W/WATERS LEVELS
RISING AS OF 12AM(22.0 FT) WHICH IS ACTION STAGE. THE AREAL FLW
WILL REMAIN UP IN THIS REGION. WILL MONITOR THE FORT KENT REGION
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ICE HAD BROKEN UP IN VAN BUREN W/ICE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER NOW OPEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED
TO CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 180447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS AS THEY
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: ICE JAM HAS RELEASED IN ST. FRANCIS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER
PER THE EMA AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT
REGION. THE MDOT IS HEADING OUT TO ASSESS THINGS. THE ICE WAS
HEADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FORT KENT REGION W/WATERS LEVELS
RISING AS OF 12AM(22.0 FT) WHICH IS ACTION STAGE. THE AREAL FLW
WILL REMAIN UP IN THIS REGION. WILL MONITOR THE FORT KENT REGION
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ICE HAD BROKEN UP IN VAN BUREN W/ICE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER NOW OPEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED
TO CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 180232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WRNG FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE
STILLWATER RIVER IN ORONO. CALLS TO THE U MAINE CAMPUS POLICE AT
ORONO AND ONE OF THE RESIDENTS WHO EARLIER REPORTED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING YIELDED REPORTS OF JUST MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING ATTM.

PENOBSCOT SO AND AROOSTOOK EMA CONFIRM CONTG CONCERNS AT DEXTER
(CULVERT FLOODING) IN SRN PENOBSCOT CNTY AND THE ST FRANCIS AREA
(ICE JAM) IN NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY RESPECTIVELY SO WILL CONT BOTH
THESE WRNGS ATTM.

WILL CONT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS WELL...

PREV DISC:  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...KHW/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 180232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WRNG FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE
STILLWATER RIVER IN ORONO. CALLS TO THE U MAINE CAMPUS POLICE AT
ORONO AND ONE OF THE RESIDENTS WHO EARLIER REPORTED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING YIELDED REPORTS OF JUST MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING ATTM.

PENOBSCOT SO AND AROOSTOOK EMA CONFIRM CONTG CONCERNS AT DEXTER
(CULVERT FLOODING) IN SRN PENOBSCOT CNTY AND THE ST FRANCIS AREA
(ICE JAM) IN NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY RESPECTIVELY SO WILL CONT BOTH
THESE WRNGS ATTM.

WILL CONT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS WELL...

PREV DISC:  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...KHW/CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 172322
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 172322
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 171931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELLING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...RB/RB
MARINE...RB/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 171931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELLING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...RB/RB
MARINE...RB/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 171645 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN DECREASING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002-005-
     006-011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...BOGEL








000
FXUS61 KCAR 171645 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN DECREASING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002-005-
     006-011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...BOGEL









000
FXUS61 KCAR 171346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 171346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...CB






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