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000
FXUS61 KCAR 260847
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
447 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds today. A warm front will move north across
the area Friday and a cold front moves through Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure currently over the Maritimes will continue to move
away to the northeast during the day today as high pressure builds
in from the north behind the departing low. High pressure will
then crest over the State during the early afternoon. The high
will then move to the east of New England later today and tonight
with clouds moving in from the southwest in the return flow behind
the departing high. Showers will then spread across the region
from the southwest later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A progressive pattern has settled into place and will continue
into the long term.

Wet conditions for Friday w/showers as a warm front lifts n across
the area. It will be an increasingly humid day w/dewpoints forecast
to rise well into the 50s. Showers will exit the region by Friday
afternoon as the region gets into a pseud-warm sector. Plenty of
llvl moisture remains into the afternoon w/some breaks possible.
This would allow temps to rise well into the 60s after a sluggish
start to day w/a sse wind and low clouds. Any instability is
limited above 4k ft(400 joules)across northern and central areas.
PWATS just under 1.00 inch w/decent 0-6km shear of 25 kts. The
negative factor is the large area of dry air above 850mbs which
would inhibit growth. Given this, decided to keep the mention of
thunder out of the forecast for Friday.

There is some discrepancy come Friday night as the 00Z NAM shows
a cold front sliding se across the region and brings a good area
of precip w/it. The ECMWF is similar w/bringing an area of precip
across the region but not nearly as heavy. The GFS is slower w/the
front and less active. NAM soundings are explosive w/SB CAPE OF
1000+ joules Friday evening and very unstable especially across
northern and western Maine. The GFS is not as unstable and it
much drier aloft. The NAM historically has been overdoing its llvl
moisture. Confidence is not high enough go any more than isolated
tstms. Therefore, kept 30-40% chance for shower and isolated
storms. Temperatures Friday night will stay in the 50s. The cold
front is forecast to stall across the downeast region on Saturday
w/high pres sliding across northern Maine from Canada. The
atmosphere across the downeast region will be very unstable w/sb
capes progged to be 1500+ joules. PWATS of 1.2+ inches w/0-6km
shear of 25 kts. So, the potential is there for tstms in the
afternoon into the early evening, plus flow is wnw w/no inhibitor
from the Gulf of Maine. Afternoon temps will warm to around 80F
in the downeast region. Lacking feature is that the low/mid level
lapse rates are progged to be around 6.0 c/km deep llvl moisture
lacking. This could change w/the later model runs. Decided to add
thunder after collaborating w/GYX but left out enhanced wording.
Daycrew can assess this further today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As stated above, pattern remains progressive through this term.

Showers and any tstms will be diminishing and moving se Saturday
night per the GFS while the ECMWF brings the cold front back as a
warm front along w/a decent slug of precip lifting across
northern areas by Sunday morning. Since confidence is not high on
this setup, decided to take a consensus blend showing 30-40% chance
for showers across downeast and sw areas Saturday night and this
area lifting ne Sunday into Sunday night. Temps are forecast to
warm Sunday night w/the CWA getting into the warm sector on
Monday. The ECMWF and GFS are pretty close on this setup w/a sw
flow developing ahead of the apchg cold front. Showers and
possible tstm on Monday w/drier conditions expected for Tuesday
as the cold front clears the region.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions this morning then VFR
conditions later this morning through tonight.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR for the terminals on Friday w/improvement to
vfr mainly for the BGR site. VFR looks be in the offing for all
terminals Friday evening w/the exception of BHB as a s flow could
keep IFR conditions. IFR/MVFR returns later Friday night into
Saturday morning ahead of a cold front dropping s into the
downeast region. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR for
all terminals by midday Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: For sustained winds have used the GFS20. For waves:
Currently the primary wave system is incoming long period swell
from the southeast. The Wave Watch III has a good handle on this
wave system with the forecast closely matching observations from
44027. With light winds expected through tonight expect this long
period wave system to dominate through tonight with wave heights
expected to subside by a foot or so later today and this evening.

SHORT TERM: No headlines foreseen through the period. Waves are
forecast to build to around 4 ft by Monday as ssw flow takes hold.
Sustained winds are forecast to remain below 20 kts through the
period.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Mignone/Hewitt
Marine...Mignone/Hewitt





000
FXUS61 KCAR 260120
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
920 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure
builds tonight into Thursday. A warm front will lift north across
the area Friday and a cold front moves through Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 pm update...the last of the thunderstorm activity has pushed
off into New Brunswick. Just a few isolated showers remain that
will die off by around midnight. drier and cooler air will filter
into northern Maine in the wake of a cold front overnight. some
low clouds are expected along parts of the coast until the cold
front pushes offshore overnight. only minor tweaks to the ongoing
forecast based on the latest radar and near term model trends, and
the 9 pm observations.

Previous discussion...
A shortwave upper trough and associated cold front will cross the
area late this afternoon into the early evening. The timing of
the frontal passage coincides well with max daytime heating and
destabilization. Surface-based CAPE will reach values of 1000 to
2000 J/kg ahead of the front with decent low level lapse rates and
diffluence aloft.. The LFQ of an upper jet entering Maine at this
time is also enhancing activity. All of this will support max CB
tops to 35k ft and the potential for some heavy downpours with
PWATs up to 1.5 inches and back building cells ahead of the front.
Still expect a narrow sliver of dew points nearing 60F just ahead
of the front. The low freezing levels...but relatively skinny CAPE
could generate up to quarter-sized hail. Shear is unimpressive. An
inverted V and decent lapse rates could produce locally strong
wind gusts with the strongest cells as they collapse. The primary
threat will be in the northern half of the forecast area. Much of
Washington and Hancock counties will be affected by the
stabilizing onshore flow and northward spread of fog and stratus
this evening until the front passes. Precipitation will end later
this evening with total QPF ranging from a half inch in northeast
Aroostook County to less than a tenth of an inch for Bangor and
Down East.

After frontal passage, clearing will move into the western
portions of the forecast area with weak cold air advection. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid
50s for Bangor and interior Down East. The onshore flow near the
coast will lower temperatures to the upper 40s. Clouds will tend
to linger along the eastern border of the state tonight into
Thursday with a moist H925-H850 layer. The combination of the
offshore flow...weak cold air advection and increased sunshine
will lift Thursday`s highs to the upper 70s to near 80F for Bangor
and the Down East region. It will be significantly warmer along
the coast with the offshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1025MB sfc high will be making a last ditch effort to hold on acrs
ern Maine at the start of the short term.  Sfc winds veer around to
the southeast arnd midnight. Wk s/wv traversing nrn periphery of upr
lvl ridge wl lkly result in sfc low south of James Bay by 06z Fri.
Overrunning expected late Thur night ahd of approaching wmfnt
leading to showers working in fm the west aft 06z.

Wmfnt wl mv thru on Fri leading to sctd showers mainly acrs nrn
zones in area of maximum convergence. Skies wl lkly be mocldy which
wl lead to temps near normal ovr the area in the 60s. Isold thunder
possible Fri aftn/evng in area of elevated instability.

Cdfnt wl lkly go thru sometime Sat mrng per GFS, EC and CMC with
Nam being about 6 hrs too fast. Depending on timing of fropa may
need to add in thunder for srn zones Sat aftn but models diverge
by this point. Timing of cdfnt wl also play big role in max temps
for Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect mainly unsettled weather through next week. High pressure
will bring a brief period of dry weather on Sunday, but there will
be waves of showers and possible thunderstorms each day thereafter
as shortwaves trek through the zonal flow aloft. The long range
guidance differs on the handling of these waves and their
associated precipitation especially timing and placement. The
result is at least a slight chance of showers every day through
the extended after Sunday. There may be a cold-frontal passage on
Wednesday, leading to cooler temperatures, but overall the period
looks to be mild with near to warmer-than-normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: the thunderstorm threat has ended for the night. low
ifr ceilings are expected at times along and near the coast until
around 06z. mvfr ceilings are expected at times tonight at the
northern maine terminals, with conditions to improve to vfr by
thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Thur afternoon and evening before
lowering to MVFR in -shra. Expect occasional MVFR conditions at
terminals in warm sector Fri into Sat. VFR Sat afternoon following
fropa into Sunday. Restrictions expected again Mon in -shra.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is the primary concern until later tonight when a
cold front will pass the waters.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA criteria through
the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...The high of 82F at caribou this afternoon was the
warmest temperature observed so far this year. there have been a
total of 3 days with high > 80 degrees at caribou so far this May.
On average, there are 2 days during the month of May at Caribou with
a high of 80 degrees of warmer.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/MCW/Farrar
Marine...CB/MCW/Farrar
Climate...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 252210
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure
builds tonight into Thursday. A warm front will lift north across
the area Friday and a cold front moves through Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
610 pm update...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms
stretches across eastern aroostook county. a couple of the storms
late this afternoon likely turned severe in portions of northern
and central penobscot county and east central piscataquis county.
the storms have weakened over the past hour with reports of mostly
pea sized hail under the heavier radar returns. The last of the
storms will move east of the cwa into new brunswick by around 7:30
pm. will remove any enhanced wording with the storms after 23z
with this update, and will make some tweaks to the pop/wx grids
based on the latest radar trends.

Previous discussion...
A shortwave upper trough and associated cold front will cross the
area late this afternoon into the early evening. The timing of
the frontal passage coincides well with max daytime heating and
destabilization. Surface-based CAPE will reach values of 1000 to
2000 J/kg ahead of the front with decent low level lapse rates and
diffluence aloft.. The LFQ of an upper jet entering Maine at this
time is also enhancing activity. All of this will support max CB
tops to 35k ft and the potential for some heavy downpours with
PWATs up to 1.5 inches and back building cells ahead of the front.
Still expect a narrow sliver of dew points nearing 60F just ahead
of the front. The low freezing levels...but relatively skinny CAPE
could generate up to quarter-sized hail. Shear is unimpressive. An
inverted V and decent lapse rates could produce locally strong
wind gusts with the strongest cells as they collapse. The primary
threat will be in the northern half of the forecast area. Much of
Washington and Hancock counties will be affected by the
stabilizing onshore flow and northward spread of fog and stratus
this evening until the front passes. Precipitation will end later
this evening with total QPF ranging from a half inch in northeast
Aroostook County to less than a tenth of an inch for Bangor and
Down East.

After frontal passage, clearing will move into the western
portions of the forecast area with weak cold air advection. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid
50s for Bangor and interior Down East. The onshore flow near the
coast will lower temperatures to the upper 40s. Clouds will tend
to linger along the eastern border of the state tonight into
Thursday with a moist H925-H850 layer. The combination of the
offshore flow...weak cold air advection and increased sunshine
will lift Thursday`s highs to the upper 70s to near 80F for Bangor
and the Down East region. It will be significantly warmer along
the coast with the offshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1025MB sfc high will be making a last ditch effort to hold on acrs
ern Maine at the start of the short term.  Sfc winds veer around to
the southeast arnd midnight. Wk s/wv traversing nrn periphery of upr
lvl ridge wl lkly result in sfc low south of James Bay by 06z Fri.
Overrunning expected late Thur night ahd of approaching wmfnt
leading to showers working in fm the west aft 06z.

Wmfnt wl mv thru on Fri leading to sctd showers mainly acrs nrn
zones in area of maximum convergence. Skies wl lkly be mocldy which
wl lead to temps near normal ovr the area in the 60s. Isold thunder
possible Fri aftn/evng in area of elevated instability.

Cdfnt wl lkly go thru sometime Sat mrng per GFS, EC and CMC with
Nam being about 6 hrs too fast. Depending on timing of fropa may
need to add in thunder for srn zones Sat aftn but models diverge
by this point. Timing of cdfnt wl also play big role in max temps
for Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect mainly unsettled weather through next week. High pressure
will bring a brief period of dry weather on Sunday, but there will
be waves of showers and possible thunderstorms each day thereafter
as shortwaves trek through the zonal flow aloft. The long range
guidance differs on the handling of these waves and their
associated precipitation especially timing and placement. The
result is at least a slight chance of showers every day through
the extended after Sunday. There may be a cold-frontal passage on
Wednesday, leading to cooler temperatures, but overall the period
looks to be mild with near to warmer-than-normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms up to FL350 are the primary threat into
this evening...mostly for HUL northward. These storms could
feature hail and strong gusts. Tempo IFR conditions are possible
with these storms. Chances are much less for BGR and BHB.
Otherwise, the MVFR cigs will affect terminals north of HUL this
evening into Thursday morning. All sites will be VFR by later
tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Thur afternoon and evening before
lowering to MVFR in -shra. Expect occasional MVFR conditions at
terminals in warm sector Fri into Sat. VFR Sat afternoon following
fropa into Sunday. Restrictions expected again Mon in -shra.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is the primary concern until later tonight when a
cold front will pass the waters.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA criteria through
the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/MCW/Farrar
Marine...CB/MCW/Farrar





000
FXUS61 KCAR 251927
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
327 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure
builds tonight into Thursday. A warm front will lift north across
the area Friday and a cold front moves through Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A shortwave upper trough and associated cold front will cross the
area late this afternoon into the early evening. The timing of
the frontal passage coincides well with max daytime heating and
destabilization. Surface-based CAPE will reach values of 1000 to
2000 J/kg ahead of the front with decent low level lapse rates and
diffluence aloft.. The LFQ of an upper jet entering Maine at this
time is also enhancing activity. All of this will support max CB
tops to 35k ft and the potential for some heavy downpours with
PWATs up to 1.5 inches and back building cells ahead of the front.
Still expect a narrow sliver of dew points nearing 60F just ahead
of the front. The low freezing levels...but relatively skinny CAPE
could generate up to quarter-sized hail. Shear is unimpressive. An
inverted V and decent lapse rates could produce locally strong
wind gusts with the strongest cells as they collapse. The primary
threat will be in the northern half of the forecast area. Much of
Washington and Hancock counties will be affected by the
stabilizing onshore flow and northward spread of fog and stratus
this evening until the front passes. Precipitation will end later
this evening with total QPF ranging from a half inch in northeast
Aroostook County to less than a tenth of an inch for Bangor and
Down East.

After frontal passage, clearing will move into the western
portions of the forecast area with weak cold air advection. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid
50s for Bangor and interior Down East. The onshore flow near the
coast will lower temperatures to the upper 40s. Clouds will tend
to linger along the eastern border of the state tonight into
Thursday with a moist H925-H850 layer. The combination of the
offshore flow...weak cold air advection and increased sunshine
will lift Thursday`s highs to the upper 70s to near 80F for Bangor
and the Down East region. It will be significantly warmer along
the coast with the offshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1025MB sfc high will be making a last ditch effort to hold on acrs
ern Maine at the start of the short term.  Sfc winds veer around to
the southeast arnd midnight. Wk s/wv traversing nrn periphery of upr
lvl ridge wl lkly result in sfc low south of James Bay by 06z Fri.
Overrunning expected late Thur night ahd of approaching wmfnt
leading to showers working in fm the west aft 06z.

Wmfnt wl mv thru on Fri leading to sctd showers mainly acrs nrn
zones in area of maximum convergence. Skies wl lkly be mocldy which
wl lead to temps near normal ovr the area in the 60s. Isold thunder
possible Fri aftn/evng in area of elevated instability.

Cdfnt wl lkly go thru sometime Sat mrng per GFS, EC and CMC with
Nam being about 6 hrs too fast. Depending on timing of fropa may
need to add in thunder for srn zones Sat aftn but models diverge
by this point. Timing of cdfnt wl also play big role in max temps
for Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect mainly unsettled weather through next week. High pressure
will bring a brief period of dry weather on Sunday, but there will
be waves of showers and possible thunderstorms each day thereafter
as shortwaves trek through the zonal flow aloft. The long range
guidance differs on the handling of these waves and their
associated precipitation especially timing and placement. The
result is at least a slight chance of showers every day through
the extended after Sunday. There may be a cold-frontal passage on
Wednesday, leading to cooler temperatures, but overall the period
looks to be mild with near to warmer-than-normal conditions.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms up to FL350 are the primary threat into
this evening...mostly for HUL northward. These storms could
feature hail and strong gusts. Tempo IFR conditions are possible
with these storms. Chances are much less for BGR and BHB.
Otherwise, the MVFR cigs will affect terminals north of HUL this
evening into Thursday morning. All sites will be VFR by later
tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Thur afternoon and evening before
lowering to MVFR in -shra. Expect occasional MVFR conditions at
terminals in warm sector Fri into Sat. VFR Sat afternoon following
fropa into Sunday. Restrictions expected again Mon in -shra.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is the primary concern until later tonight when a
cold front will pass the waters.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA criteria through
the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...MCW/Farrar
Marine...MCW/Farrar





000
FXUS61 KCAR 251633
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1233 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from Quebec this afternoon and cross
the area tonight bringing the potential for thunderstorms. High
pressure is expected to move across the region on Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update... Maintained locally heavy rain...along with small hail
and gusty winds for the northern zones this afternoon and early
evening. Highlighted threat in an SPS. Best potential appears to
eastern Aroostook where cape could support tops to 35K ft with
PWATS as high as 1.5 inches and surface dew points hitting 60F
ahead of the front. Low freezing levels continue to support hail
and inverted Vs support a few strong wind gusts. There is not much
shear...but can`t rule out a couple of severe thunderstorms. The
cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon into
early evening with the convection.

Also increased highs north by a degree or two.

Previous Discussion...
Main focus today will be the potential for some organized
convection, mainly this afternoon into early evening.

Low pres spinning off the Maine coast will lift ne today. Latest
obs and satellite imagery showed llvl clouds w/some fog across
the downeast and coastal areas. Patchy drizzle or a light rain
shower is possible this morning across the eastern areas northward
into Aroostook County. The low clouds/fog will lift and burn off
by mid morning w/some sunshine to return. This will help to warm
things up rather quickly by late afternoon before clouds move in
ahead of a cold front coming out of Quebec. The atmosphere will
destabilize w/an inverted V type sounding as depicted by the NAM
and GFS. SB/MU CAPES forecast to hit 1000+ joules across portions
of northern and central areas by the afternoon. 850-500mb lapse
rates of 6.5-7.0c/km are forecast to be in place w/pwats of 1.00+
inches. Other parameters worth noting are the K index around 35
w/total totals of 50+. Showalter index is forecast to be around
-2. A nice mid level jet streak of 35 kt is shown to move across
northern and western areas. Dewpoints rising into the upper 50s
look possible in a narrow corridor across Aroostook County down
into north-central Piscataquis County by late afternoon
w/moisture loading from 850-700mbs. All this would point to the
potential for an active afternoon/early evening. The NAM/GFS and
HRRR 3KM show a broken line of tstms developing in nw Maine and
then move ese. There is potential for some storms to show
supercell characteristics. Therefore, after coordinating w/GYX,
decided to add enhanced wording in the forecast for hail and
strong wind gusts for this afternoon across northern and western
areas including the Millinocket and Greenville area. This setup
looks similar to a setup back in May 24th,2014 where severe storms
and some rotating cells affected the northern 1/2 of the CWA. The
Downeast region will see a south wind throughout the day keeping
the llvls stable and inhibiting tstms.

For tonight, the cold front is forecast to slide quickly se this
evening and the airmass cooling down and tstms diminishing.
Followed a consensus apch and began clearing things out from w to
e after midnight. Temps will be quite cool across portions of
northern and western areas by morning w/some low lying areas
seeing low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure is expected to build across the region during the
day Thursday into Thursday Evening then slowly move to the east. A
warm front is then expected to move across the region during the
day Friday resulting in showers. Will use the Bias corrected
consensus raw for temperatures Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal system is expected to move southward across the region
Friday Night. This system may produce some thunderstorms during
the evening Friday as it becomes stationary across the State. The
showers will likely continue into the day Saturday. High pressure
is then expected to build to the northeast Sunday. Low pressure
will then move to the north of the region Monday and Tuesday
resulting in more showers. High pressure will then build across
the Northeast Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR Conditions this morning w/fog for KBGR and KBHB.
Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning. Some TSRAS are
possible in the vicinity of the northern terminals later this
afternoon into early evening w/strong wind gusts possible. For
tonight, MVFR later in the evening through Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR Thursday. MVFR conditions Friday and
Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday. MVFR conditions are
expected Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Update...added fog through tonight.

NEAR TERM: No headlines expected. 2-3 foot waves attm will build
to 3-4 by the afternoon. Using a blend of the NAM12 and GFS20
brought sustained winds to 15 kts tonight the passage of the cold
front.

SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained winds Thursday and
Friday then transition to the Super Blend winds late Friday. For
Waves: Local wind wave (1-2 feet/5-6 seconds) is expected to be
primary wave system through the Weekend with a secondary longer
period swell from the southeast averaging around 1 foot/7-8
seconds).

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone
Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone





000
FXUS61 KCAR 251408
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1008 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of
the region this morning. A cold front will approach from Quebec
this afternoon and cross the area tonight bringing the potential
for thunderstorms. High pressure is expected to move across the
region on Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945am update...
Added locally heavy rain...along with small hail and gusty winds
for the northern zones this afternoon and early evening. Best
potential appears to eastern Aroostook where Cape could support
tops to 35K ft with PWATS as high as 1.5 inches and surface dew
points hitting 60F ahead of the front. Low freezing levels
continue to support hail and inverted Vs support some strong wind
gusts. There is not much shear...but can`t rule out a few severe
thunderstorms. The cold front will sweep across the area late
this afternoon into early evening with the convection. Also
reduced highs closer to the coast with the onshore flow.

Previous Discussion...
Main focus today will be the potential for some organized
convection, mainly this afternoon into early evening.

Low pres spinning off the Maine coast will lift ne today. Latest
obs and satellite imagery showed llvl clouds w/some fog across
the downeast and coastal areas. Patchy drizzle or a light rain
shower is possible this morning across the eastern areas northward
into Aroostook County. The low clouds/fog will lift and burn off
by mid morning w/some sunshine to return. This will help to warm
things up rather quickly by late afternoon before clouds move in
ahead of a cold front coming out of Quebec. The atmosphere will
destabilize w/an inverted V type sounding as depicted by the NAM
and GFS. SB/MU CAPES forecast to hit 1000+ joules across portions
of northern and central areas by the afternoon. 850-500mb lapse
rates of 6.5-7.0c/km are forecast to be in place w/pwats of 1.00+
inches. Other parameters worth noting are the K index around 35
w/total totals of 50+. Showalter index is forecast to be around
-2. A nice mid level jet streak of 35 kt is shown to move across
northern and western areas. Dewpoints rising into the upper 50s
look possible in a narrow corridor across Aroostook County down
into north-central Piscataquis County by late afternoon
w/moisture loading from 850-700mbs. All this would point to the
potential for an active afternoon/early evening. The NAM/GFS and
HRRR 3KM show a broken line of tstms developing in nw Maine and
then move ese. There is potential for some storms to show
supercell characteristics. Therefore, after coordinating w/GYX,
decided to add enhanced wording in the forecast for hail and
strong wind gusts for this afternoon across northern and western
areas including the Millinocket and Greenville area. This setup
looks similar to a setup back in May 24th,2014 where severe storms
and some rotating cells affected the northern 1/2 of the CWA. The
Downeast region will see a south wind throughout the day keeping
the llvls stable and inhibiting tstms.

For tonight, the cold front is forecast to slide quickly se this
evening and the airmass cooling down and tstms diminishing.
Followed a consensus apch and began clearing things out from w to
e after midnight. Temps will be quite cool across portions of
northern and western areas by morning w/some low lying areas
seeing low 40s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure is expected to build across the region during the
day Thursday into Thursday Evening then slowly move to the east. A
warm front is then expected to move across the region during the
day Friday resulting in showers. Will use the Bias corrected
consensus raw for temperatures Thursday and Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal system is expected to move southward across the region
Friday Night. This system may produce some thunderstorms during
the evening Friday as it becomes stationary across the State. The
showers will likely continue into the day Saturday. High pressure
is then expected to build to the northeast Sunday. Low pressure
will then move to the north of the region Monday and Tuesday
resulting in more showers. High pressure will then build across
the Northeast Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR Conditions this morning w/fog for KBGR and KBHB.
Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning. Some TSRAS are
possible in the vicinity of the northern terminals later this
afternoon into early evening w/strong wind gusts possible. For
tonight, MVFR later in the evening through Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR Thursday. MVFR conditions Friday and
Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday. MVFR conditions are
expected Monday.
&&

.MARINE...
Update...added fog through tonight.

NEAR TERM: No headlines expected. 2-3 foot waves attm will build
to 3-4 by the afternoon. Using a blend of the NAM12 and GFS20
brought sustained winds to 15 kts tonight the passage of the cold
front.

SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained winds Thursday and
Friday then transition to the Super Blend winds late Friday. For
Waves: Local wind wave (1-2 feet/5-6 seconds) is expected to be
primary wave system through the Weekend with a secondary longer
period swell from the southeast averaging around 1 foot/7-8
seconds).
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone
Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone





000
FXUS61 KCAR 250230
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1030 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of
the region overnight. A cold front approach wednesday and will
cross the area by wednesday evening and will be followed by high
pressure thursday. A warm front will lift north across the region
friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM Update: Just one last update before the end of my shift to
increase fog across the Downeast coastal zones and introduce
patchy fog to the interior downeast including the lower penobscot
valley areas. Rest of the fcst unchgd from the last update.

Orgnl Disc: Low pressure at the surface and aloft near Cape Cod
late this afternoon will track northeast across the Gulf of Maine
tonight. Increasingly moist air will be advected north across the
region tonight resulting in stratus clouds moving north from the
Gulf of Maine overnight. As the upper/surface lows move northeast,
there could even be a few showers from time to time tonight,
mainly across central and downeast areas. Lows tonight will be in
the 50s.

The upper low will exit to our east early Wednesday as the
next upstream short wave and cold front approaches from the west.
Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across northern
areas by Wednesday afternoon and then move into downeast areas by
late in the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid to
upper 70s northern and central areas, low to mid 70s interior
downeast, and low to mid 60s along the downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front crosses the cwa Wednesday night with scattered
showers and the chance of an evening thunderstorm, especially for
northern and central portions of the cwa. The last of the showers
should end by around midnight with at least partial
clearing overnight. Ridging both surface and aloft will build
across the state Thursday making for a dry day with sunshine and
temperatures a bit above average. The ridging breaks down Thursday
night and a warm front will bring the chance of showers back to the
region, especially late evening and overnight. Friday will likely
feature more clouds than sun and it will be mild and moderately
humid with a few showers around at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The longwave pattern features a western conus trough with
another trough in the maritimes over the weekend that moves out
into the north Atlantic early next week. Mid to upper level
ridging will be found across the Mid Atlantic into New England.
The air mass will be warm, but flow at times off the relatively
cold ocean waters will keep temperatures cooler along and near the
coast. It will remain unsettled as disturbances move through the
mean flow which will produce clouds and showers at times. The good
news, it appears a cold front drops south across the area Saturday
evening that will likely make Sunday a mostly sunny and dry day
with comfortable humidity levels. There is also a decent chance
that Memorial Day will be dry, with the chance of an afternoon
shower mainly across northern and western portions of the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect vfr through this evening at kfve/kcar/kpqi/khul
with developing mvfr clgs aft 06z. Expect mvfr conditions early
Wed morning to give way to vfr. Expect developing showers and
tstms Wed afternoon with the passage of a cold front along with
possibility of lcl mvfr conditions.

For kbgr/kbhb expect widespread mvfr through early evening to give
way to widespread lifr/vlifr in low clouds and areas of fog.
Conditions will improve to mvfr kbgr/kbhb by afternoon.

SHORT TERM: mvfr at times in showers Wed evening with conditions
to improve to vfr after midnight and continue through at least
Thursday evening. Mvfr at times later Thursday night into Saturday in
showers with the potential for times of ifr in lower ceilings,
especially at the downeast terminals. vfr conditions expected
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm
in fog through Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels into the weekend. The visibility will
likely be reduced at times in showers and fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...VJN/CB
Marine...VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 250136
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
936 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of
the region overnight. A cold front approach wednesday and will
cross the area by wednesday evening and will be followed by high
pressure thursday. A warm front will lift north across the region
friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
920 PM Update: Shwrs have msly dissipated as of late eve. The
only chg this update was fcst hrly temps thru the ovrngt based on
trends seen in the erly to mid eve obsvd temps to unchgd fcst lows
attm posted at 5 am. We will cont to monitor the progress of
oceanic sc/st nwrd into nrn ptns of the FA ovrngt and the
potential of patchy fog for Downeast areas late tngt.

Orgnl Disc: Low pressure at the surface and aloft near Cape Cod
late this afternoon will track northeast across the Gulf of Maine
tonight. Increasingly moist air will be advected north across the
region tonight resulting in stratus clouds moving north from the
Gulf of Maine overnight. As the upper/surface lows move northeast,
there could even be a few showers from time to time tonight,
mainly across central and downeast areas. Lows tonight will be in
the 50s.

The upper low will exit to our east early Wednesday as the
next upstream short wave and cold front approaches from the west.
Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across northern
areas by Wednesday afternoon and then move into downeast areas by
late in the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid to
upper 70s northern and central areas, low to mid 70s interior
downeast, and low to mid 60s along the downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front crosses the cwa Wednesday night with scattered
showers and the chance of an evening thunderstorm, especially for
northern and central portions of the cwa. The last of the showers
should end by around midnight with at least partial
clearing overnight. Ridging both surface and aloft will build
across the state Thursday making for a dry day with sunshine and
temperatures a bit above average. The ridging breaks down Thursday
night and a warm front will bring the chance of showers back to the
region, especially late evening and overnight. Friday will likely
feature more clouds than sun and it will be mild and moderately
humid with a few showers around at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The longwave pattern features a western conus trough with
another trough in the maritimes over the weekend that moves out
into the north Atlantic early next week. Mid to upper level
ridging will be found across the Mid Atlantic into New England.
The air mass will be warm, but flow at times off the relatively
cold ocean waters will keep temperatures cooler along and near the
coast. It will remain unsettled as disturbances move through the
mean flow which will produce clouds and showers at times. The good
news, it appears a cold front drops south across the area Saturday
evening that will likely make Sunday a mostly sunny and dry day
with comfortable humidity levels. There is also a decent chance
that Memorial Day will be dry, with the chance of an afternoon
shower mainly across northern and western portions of the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect vfr through this evening at kfve/kcar/kpqi/khul
with developing mvfr clgs aft 06z. Expect mvfr conditions early
Wed morning to give way to vfr. Expect developing showers and
tstms Wed afternoon with the passage of a cold front along with
possibility of lcl mvfr conditions.

For kbgr/kbhb expect widespread mvfr through early evening to give
way to widespread lifr/vlifr in low clouds and areas of fog.
Conditions will improve to mvfr kbgr/kbhb by afternoon.

SHORT TERM: mvfr at times in showers Wed evening with conditions
to improve to vfr after midnight and continue through at least
Thursday evening. Mvfr at times later Thursday night into Saturday in
showers with the potential for times of ifr in lower ceilings,
especially at the downeast terminals. vfr conditions expected
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm
in fog through Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels into the weekend. The visibility will
likely be reduced at times in showers and fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...VJN/CB
Marine...VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 241949
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across southern new england will lift north tonight.
A cold front will cross the area wednesday and will be followed
by high pressure thursday. A warm front will lift north across
the region friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft near Cape Cod late this afternoon
will track northeast across the Gulf of Maine tonight. Increasingly
moist air will be advected north across the region tonight
resulting in stratus clouds moving north from the Gulf of Maine
overnight. As the upper/surface lows move northeast, there could
even be a few showers from time to time tonight, mainly across
central and downeast areas. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

The upper low will exit to our east early Wednesday as the
next upstream short wave and cold front approaches from the west.
Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across northern
areas by Wednesday afternoon and then move into downeast areas by
late in the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid to
upper 70s northern and central areas, low to mid 70s interior
downeast, and low to mid 60s along the downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front crosses the cwa Wednesday night with scattered
showers and the chance of an evening thunderstorm, especially for
northern and central portions of the cwa. The last of the showers
should end by around midnight with at least partial
clearing overnight. Ridging both surface and aloft will build
across the state Thursday making for a dry day with sunshine and
temperatures a bit above average. The ridging breaks down Thursday
night and a warm front will bring the chance of showers back to the
region, especially late evening and overnight. Friday will likely
feature more clouds than sun and it will be mild and moderately
humid with a few showers around at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The longwave pattern features a western conus trough with
another trough in the maritimes over the weekend that moves out
into the north Atlantic early next week. Mid to upper level
ridging will be found across the Mid Atlantic into New England.
The air mass will be warm, but flow at times off the relatively
cold ocean waters will keep temperatures cooler along and near the
coast. It will remain unsettled as disturbances move through the
mean flow which will produce clouds and showers at times. The good
news, it appears a cold front drops south across the area Saturday
evening that will likely make Sunday a mostly sunny and dry day
with comfortable humidity levels. There is also a decent chance
that Memorial Day will be dry, with the chance of an afternoon
shower mainly across northern and western portions of the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect vfr through this evening at kfve/kcar/kpqi/khul
with developing mvfr cigs aft 06z. Expect mvfr conditions early
Wed morning to give way to vfr. Expect developing showers and
tstms Wed afternoon with the passage of a cold front along with
possibility of lcl mvfr conditions.

For kbgr/kbhb expect widespread mvfr through early evening to give
way to widespread lifr/vlifr in low clouds and areas of fog.
Conditions will improve to mvfr kbgr/kbhb by afternoon.

SHORT TERM: mvfr at times in showers Wed evening with conditions
to improve to vfr after midnight and continue through at least
Thursday evening. Mvfr at times later Thursday night into Saturday in
showers with the potential for times of ifr in lower ceilings,
especially at the downeast terminals. vfr conditions expected
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm
in fog through Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels into the weekend. The visibility will
likely be reduced at times in showers and fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Duda/CB
Marine...Duda/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 241905
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across southern new england will lift north tonight.
A cold front will cross the area wednesday and will be followed
by high pressure thursday. A warm front will lift north across
the region friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft near Cape Cod late this afternoon
will track northeast across the Gulf of Maine tonight. Increasingly
moist air will be advected north across the region tonight
resulting in stratus clouds moving north from the Gulf of Maine
overnight. As the upper/surface lows move northeast, there could
even be a few showers from time to time tonight, mainly across
central and downeast areas. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

The upper low will exit to our east early Wednesday as the
next upstream short wave and cold front approaches from the west.
Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across northern
areas by Wednesday afternoon and then move into downeast areas by
late in the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid to
upper 70s northern and central areas, low to mid 70s interior
downeast, and low to mid 60s along the downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front crosses the cwa Wednesday night with scattered
showers and the chance of an evening thunderstorm, especially for
northern and central portions of the cwa. The last of the showers
should end by around midnight with at least partial
clearing overnight. Ridging both surface and aloft will build
across the state Thursday making for a dry day with sunshine and
temperatures a bit above average. The ridging breaks down Thursdaynight
and a warm front will bring the chance of showers back to the
region, especially late evening and overnight. Friday will likely
feature more clouds than sun and it will be mild and moderately
humid with a few showers around at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The longwave pattern features a western conus trough with
another trough in the maritimes over the weekend that moves out
into the north Atlantic early next week. Mid to upper level
ridging will be found across the Mid Atlantic into New England.
The air mass will be warm, but flow at times off the relatively
cold ocean waters will keep temperatures cooler along and near the
coast. It will remain unsettled as disturbances move through the
mean flow which will produce clouds and showers at times. The good
news, it appears a cold front drops south across the area Saturday
evening that will likely make Sunday a mostly sunny and dry day
with comfortable humidity levels. There is also a decent chance
that Memorial Day will be dry, with the chance of an afternoon
shower mainly across northern and western portions of the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect vfr through this evening at kfve/kcar/kpqi/khul
with developing mvfr cigs aft 06z. Expect mvfr conditions early
Wed morning to give way to vfr. Expect developing showers and
tstms Wed afternoon with the passage of a cold front along with
possibility of lcl mvfr conditions.

For kbgr/kbhb expect widespread mvfr through early evening to give
way to widespread lifr/vlifr in low clouds and areas of fog.
Conditions will improve to mvfr kbgr/kbhb by afternoon.

SHORT TERM: mvfr at times in showers Wed evening with conditions
to improve to vfr after midnight and continue through at least
Thursday evening. Mvfr at times later Thursday night into Saturday in
showers with the potential for times of ifr in lower ceilings,
especially at the downeast terminals. vfr conditions expected
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm
in fog through Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels into the weekend. The visibility will
likely be reduced at times in showers and fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Duda/CB
Marine...Duda/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 241154
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
754 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift across the region later today through
tonight. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday. High
pressure will build across the region Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Have included patchy fog early this morning across much of the
forecast area, with the exception of northwest areas. Have also
updated to adjust for cloud cover and current conditions.

Previous Discussion...
Surface/upper level low pressure will lift north toward the
region today, then cross the forecast area tonight. Mostly/partly
sunny skies are expected across northern areas this morning, with
increasing clouds this afternoon. Isolated showers could begin to
approach northern areas late this afternoon. Generally expect
mostly cloudy skies across central/Downeast areas today, with
scattered showers mainly this afternoon. A cold front will also
approach northern Maine later tonight. Expect mostly cloudy skies
along with scattered showers across the forecast area tonight. The
warmest temperatures today will occur across northern areas, where
the most sun will occur, with upper 70s to around 80. The coolest
temperatures will occur Downeast, with the most extensive cloud
cover, with upper 60s to around 70 interior Downeast and mid 60s
along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally
range from the lower to mid 50s north, to around 50 to the lower
50s Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday morning a rapidly weakening 500mb shortwave will depart
the coastal Maine, with limited sensible weather, maybe a stray
shower across downeast. The bigger weather maker for the day will
be a surface cold front and 500mb shortwave trough from Quebec
province. There will be a quick low-level moisture flux with
surface dewpoints reaching near 60. This will have aid MUCAPE
values above 1000 J/KG, especially across eastern Maine Wednesday
afternoon. The GFS/NAM/SREF all show a descent CAPE axis during
the afternoon. This will be our best chance to see some convection
in quite some time. Right now I kept slight chance of thunder in
the forecast, but could see the potential for increasing this to
chance if guidance continues to trend up on CAPE values today. QPF
amounts will generally be less than .25", but could be locally
higher with PWAT values rising above 1.25". Front quickly pushes
off the coast Wednesday night.

Thursday looks to be a nice day with shortwave ridging and drier
air from Canada advecting in all day on NW flow. Moisture will
quickly stream back into the region on Thursday night as a warm
front pushes into the area. Moist southerly onshore flow will
bring in a low stratus deck. Isentropic lift will allow showers to
break out especially after midnight.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday warm front will still be draped across the state with
moist southerly flow all day. Confidence is high that it will be a
mostly cloudy day with showers. Isentropic lift could be focused
across the County, enhancing rainfall across Northern Maine, in
addition to favorable upslope enhancement across the Central
Highlands. Overall doesn`t look to be the best day, but it will be
a warm airmass which will keep highs in the 60s, even under the
cloudy skies. We will remain in the warm sector through Friday
night with the possibility of some drizzle and low stratus.

The weekend currently looks to be 50/50 with Saturday looking to
be cloudy and rainy as a back door cold front approaches the
region from Northern Quebec. Both the GFS/ECWMF camps have this
wave, so confidence is moderate that Saturday could be a rainy
day. The good news is that guidance has the front pushing to the
south quickly Saturday night with potential clearing and dry
Canadian high pressure building over the region on Sunday. Dry
weather looks likely into Monday. Kept mention of thunder out for
the long-term with no strong signals supporting convection at this
time. Above average temperatures will continue for this period.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across northern and
central areas today. However, variable conditions from MVFR to
LIFR are possible early this morning with patchy fog. Conditions
are then expected to lower to MVFR/IFR levels across northern and
central areas tonight. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected
Downeast this morning, with generally MVFR conditions this
afternoon. MVFR to LIFR conditions are then expected Downeast
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Biggest potential impact to aviation operations in
the short-term are thunderstorms during the afternoon on
Wednesday. Right now looks like the highest probability is across
the County TAF terminals with about a 40% chance for vicinity
storms. Lower chances are expected at KBGR/KBHB. Storms will
quickly exit Wednesday evening with high pressure on Thursday.
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels today through tonight. Visibilities will be
reduced in patchy fog and scattered showers today through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: A cold front will push across the coastal waters
late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. An isolated
thunderstorm could be possible across the waters. Clearing is
expected by midnight with surface high pressure over the waters on
Thursday bringing offshore NW flow. SCA not anticipated at this
time.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...Norcross/Dumont
Marine...Norcross/Dumont





000
FXUS61 KCAR 240459
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1259 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region overnight. Low pressure will
lift across Maine Tuesday and be followed by a cold front
Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
Surface high pressure will remain ridged across the region
overnight, while surface/upper level low pressure begin to lift
north from the Mid Atlantic region. Generally expect mostly clear
skies across northern areas overnight. However, clouds are moving
inland from the Gulf of Maine which will expand north overnight.
Expect that partly/mostly cloudy skies will develop across
central portions of the forecast area overnight, with mostly
cloudy skies Downeast. Overnight low temperatures across northern
areas are generally expected to range from the mid 40s to around
50, though locally colder temperatures are possible across
northwest areas. Low temperatures across central/Downeast portions
of the forecast area are generally expected to range from around
50 to the lower 50s. Have updated the forecast to adjust for
current conditions along with overnight temperatures and cloud
cover.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure both at the surface and aloft will lift north from
the mid atlantic region during Tuesday. Expect increasing clouds
during Tuesday with a chance of showers by afternoon across
downeast areas. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid to upper
70s northern and central areas, mid to upper 60s interior
downeast, and mid 50s to around 60 along the immediate coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A closed upper low in the vicinity of Cape Cod Tuesday evening
will slowly weaken to an open trough and lift into New Brunswick
Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough will move into northern Maine
Wednesday morning and will be followed by a cold front that will
cross the region late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover and sfc heating there will
be the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening,
but no severe weather is expected. the showers will end across the
region Wednesday night. Brief ridging surface and aloft builds
across the region Thursday making for a dry day with a partly to
mostly sunny sky and temperatures a little above average for late
may.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
All of the extended models are in good agreement. A weak high
pressure ridge will be retreating from our area as an upper level
low over central Canada north of lake Superior, with a trough
extending into the eastern Great Lakes region. Early Saturday
morning the trough moves into western Maine, then to central Maine
by Saturday morning. The trough will move east of Maine Saturday
evening. Two new lows, the first over western lake Superior, with
a front extending to southern IL. The second low over coastal SC,
the ECMWF second low is over southern FL. Sunday morning the GFS
and ECMWF diverge on there solutions. The GFS bring the warm front
to central Maine, moves the low over Superior into southern
Canada. The low along the SC coast remains stationary, but
deepens. The ECMWF keeps the warm front south of Maine, keeps the
associated low over southern Superior. Sunday evening the models
are in better agreement. With the GFS moving the front back to the
south over southwest Maine. The ECMWF moving its front to MA.
Monday the frontal boundary remains stationary over southwest
Maine. Through the day as its associated low moves into Hudson
Bay, the front will extend into western Maine. By the end of the
period the low will move into northeast Quebec, the associated
cold front moves into central Maine.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models.
The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor
tool.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across northern areas
overnight. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected Downeast which could
expand across central areas. VFR conditions are expected across
northern areas early Tuesday, with MVFR conditions starting to
develop during the afternoon. Generally expect MVFR conditions
Downeast Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Predominately vfr Tue night with times of mvfr in
showers Wednesday into Wed evening. Conditions will improve to vfr
by Thursday morning and continue during the day Thursday. conditions
will lower to mvfr at times in showers Friday into Saturday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels overnight through Tuesday. Visibilities could be
reduced in showers Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels for the most part during the short term, but may
approach 5 ft at times Wednesday afternoon or evening across the
outer portions of the coastal zones.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Duda
Short Term...CB
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Norcross/CB
Marine...Norcross/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 232258
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
658 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through tonight. Low
pressure will lift north toward Maine Tuesday and will be
followed by a cold front Wednesday. High pressure builds back into
the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 PM Update: We xtnded isold shwr PoPs later into the eve ovr
SE ME based on latest radar ref showing some lgt shwrs still movg
wwrd from Srn NB. We also beefed up cld cvr in this area...
otherwise fcst hrly temps were updated tngt thru Mon with chgs to
both ovrngt lows for nrn vly lctns and hi temps Tue to msly hi
trrn temps.

Orgnl Disc: High pressure will build across the region tonight.
Expect mainly clear skies across northern and central areas and
partly cloudy skies downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Low pressure both at the surface and aloft will start to lift
north from the mid atlantic region during Tuesday. Expect
increasing clouds during Tuesday with a chance of showers by
afternoon across downeast areas. Highs on Tuesday will range from
the mid to upper 70s northern and central areas, mid to upper 60s
interior downeast, and mid 50s to around 60 along the immediate
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A closed upper low in the vicinity of Cape Cod Tuesday evening
will slowly weaken to an open trough and lift into New Brunswick
Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough will move into northern Maine
Wednesday morning and will be followed by a cold front that will
cross the region late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover and sfc heating there will
be the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening,
but no severe weather is expected. the showers will end across the
region Wednesday night. Brief ridging surface and aloft builds
across the region Thursday making for a dry day with a partly to
mostly sunny sky and temperatures a little above average for late
may.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
All of the extended models are in good agreement. A weak high
pressure ridge will be retreating from our area as an upper level
low over central Canada north of lake Superior, with a trough
extending into the eastern Great Lakes region. Early Saturday
morning the trough moves into western Maine, then to central Maine
by Saturday morning. The trough will move east of Maine Saturday
evening. Two new lows, the first over western lake Superior, with
a front extending to southern IL. The second low over coastal SC,
the ECMWF second low is over southern FL. Sunday morning the GFS
and ECMWF diverge on there solutions. The GFS bring the warm front
to central Maine, moves the low over Superior into southern
Canada. The low along the SC coast remains stationary, but
deepens. The ECMWF keeps the warm front south of Maine, keeps the
associated low over southern Superior. Sunday evening the models
are in better agreement. With the GFS moving the front back to the
south over southwest Maine. The ECMWF moving its front to MA.
Monday the frontal boundary remains stationary over southwest
Maine. Through the day as its associated low moves into Hudson
Bay, the front will extend into western Maine. By the end of the
period the low will move into northeast Quebec, the associated
cold front moves into central Maine.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models.
The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected across the northern sites
tonight. At KBGR/KBHB, guidance is suggesting MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions after 06z in lowering clgs. Expect VFR conditions
Tuesday morning across the north to give way to developing MVFR
in sct showers and MVFR conditions KBGR/KBHB in sct showers and
low clgs.

SHORT TERM: Predominately vfr Tue night with times of mvfr in
showers Wednesday into Wed evening. Conditions will improve to vfr
by Thursday morning and continue during the day Thursday. conditions
will lower to mvfr at times in showers Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through
Tuesday. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 nm at in showers.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels for the most part during the short term, but may
approach 5 ft at times Wednesday afternoon or evening across the
outer portions of the coastal zones.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...CB
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...VJN/CB
Marine...VJN/CB





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