000
FXUS61 KCAR 232313
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 1910L: BROAD LOW PRES TROF W/ ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY XTNDS NE-SW FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VLY DOWN ACROSS NYS... NUMEROUS
WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY AND RESULTING IN A
RATHER SLOW EWRD MVMNT... MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS W/ SOME VRY ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS OUR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM W/ LESSER ACTION TO THE S
AND E. CONVECTION HAVING A TUF TIME HOLDING ON AS DEEP MARINE
LAYER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION W/ A COOL MOIST SRLY FLOW
IN PLACE. WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLD THUNDER WRN HALF OF THE FA NXT
SEVERAL HRS OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION W/ THE
BEST AREA OF PRECIP NOW ACROSS WRN AND NWRN AREAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING E AND SE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS W/ NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WARRANTED
ATTM.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LGTNG STRIKES CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONES SETS UP ACROSS STATE AND THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOL AND WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FRI EVENING
AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. A SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI
EVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DOWNEAST MAINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHERE IT STALLS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A RAPIDLY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR TO AT TIMES LOW END MVFR
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN IN AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE & FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAND AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS LIKELY SAT. THE WIND MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT SUN AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...BUT SEAS MAY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A SCA TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW/DUDA/CB
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231926
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LTNG STRIKES CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONES SETS UP ACROSS STATE AND THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOL AND WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FRI EVENING
AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. A SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI
EVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DOWNEAST MAINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHERE IT STALLS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A RAPIDLY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR TO AT TIMES LOW END MVFR
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN IN AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE & FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAND AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS LIKELY SAT. THE WIND MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT SUN AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...BUT SEAS MAY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A SCA TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231651
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3
TO 5 DEGREES F ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES ENTERING THE WESTERN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE CONFINED TO THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231356
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
956 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE: THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF
VERMONT AND INTO WESTERN MASS. NORTH OF THE FRONT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY REAL CHANGES WERE
TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN
INTERPOLATED TO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. ALSO..ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO
DOWNEAST MAINE WITH BOTH KBGR/KBHB SHOWING VISIBILITY LESS THAN 2SM
AND WEB CAMS SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TOWARD THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS AS IF ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231043
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0640 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALSO, DECIDED TO ADD FURTHER
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MENTIONING SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC BORDER. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230839
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
439 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230506
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
106 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM PM UPDATE: ADDED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED MINS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. FINALLY, LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A RESPITE BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION OVER NH AND MA
MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE FORM OF SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME HIGHER POPS
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
MAINLY AFTER 8 PM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT
LATE AFTERNOON READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.
WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.
VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230227
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1027 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1010 PM UPDATE: ADDED FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CWA W/A LARGER AREA OVER THE DOWNEAST DUE TO EARLIER
CONVECTION COMING OUT OF VT AND NH. AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
ATTM MOVING INTO A REGION MORE FAVORABLE TO THE SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER.
WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION OVER NH AND MA MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS
OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME REMNANT
SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR
AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME HIGHER POPS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MAINLY AFTER 8 PM. OTHERWISE...IT
WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM
CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE.
ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.
WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.
VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
000
FXUS61 KCAR 222234
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
633 PM UPDATE: UPDATED THE FCST TO INCLUDE DRIZZLE W/FOG OVER THE
DOWNEAST COAST. 22Z LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRIZZLE SETUP
W/LIGHT SSE FLOW IN LLVLS & DEEP MOISTURE W/DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE LATE EVENING.
WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION OVER NH AND MA MAY MAKE IT INTO
PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE MORE STABLE AIR
ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME HIGHER POPS LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MAINLY AFTER 8
PM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING.
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON
READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN PLACE.
ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.
WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.
VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/KHW
000
FXUS61 KCAR 221951
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
NYS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION
FIRING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER
THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS IN THE MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME
HIGHER POPS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS MAINLY AFTER 8 PM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT
LATE AFTERNOON READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.
WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.
VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
000
FXUS61 KCAR 221649
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
STILL LOOKS GOOD. LOADED RUC13 FOR POPS FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS BUT
FORECASTED MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK OK.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN
EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 221409
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...12Z KCAR RAOB SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE
THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE LAST OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS
EXITING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY UTILIZING THE RUC13 WHICH WAS DOING A
FAIRLY GOOD JOB AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...ONLY EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED TO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN
EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220941
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING A
CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
A LARGE AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING AN
AREA OF RAIN AND HEAVIER SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH DURING
MID MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
HUMID WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS
TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN
MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFIR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220804
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
A LARGE AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING AN
AREA OF RAIN AND HEAVIER SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH DURING
MID MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
HUMID WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS
TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN
MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFIR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220408
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1208 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...EXPECT SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH DISSIPATES. FOCUS OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. LIGHTER RAIN EXPECTED NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AFTERNOON JUST REMAINING CLOUDY SO MODIFIED FCST
TO MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN MORNING AND CLOUDY IN AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON
THE S SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW
QB...SO WE DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS
OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF
TOTAL QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR THE N...ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FA BY WED
MORN. LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN WHICH WILL INCLUDE A
MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N
VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER
WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.
MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.
SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.
STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...
WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220252
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1052 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
UP W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS. USED THE REGIONAL GEM DOING WELL W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CWA. RAFL MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS ATTM
AND LATEST POPS LOOK GOOD.
THERE MAY BE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON
THE S SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW
QB...SO WE DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS
OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF
TOTAL QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR THE N...ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FA BY WED
MORN. LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN WHICH WILL INCLUDE A
MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N
VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER
WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.
MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.
SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.
STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...
WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
000
FXUS61 KCAR 212245
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ADVERTISE RAIN COMING INTO THE
WRN AREAS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST USING THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. RAFL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AREAS COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES AS RUC SHOWS NICE 5OKT JETLET AT 700 MBS OVERRUNNING THE
WARM FRONT. DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE AS WELL. THEREFORE,
QPF WAS ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST NERFC GRIDS WHICH SHOWS UP TO
.75" FROM 06-12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES USING THE LATEST LAMP WHICH POINTS TO TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
THE FA WILL ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ERLY THIS EVE
BEFORE CLDNSS FROM ANOTHER S/WV...OLD CNVCTV COMPLEX MOVE W TO E
INTO THE FA DURG THE OVRNGT HRS AS A SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVR THE GULF OF ME. BLENDED 6 HRLY RNFL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MORE SIG AND WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA OF SHWRS THAT CROSSED THE
REGION EARLIER TDY. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
AS MORE CNVCTV ELEMENTS MOVE INTO E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON THE S SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW QB...SO WE DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY
LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME
LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR
EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF TOTAL QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR
THE N...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL
OF THE FA BY WED MORN. LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN
WHICH WILL INCLUDE A MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH
WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.
MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.
SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.
STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...
WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 212010
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
410 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF THE MORN SHWRS IS CURRENTLY MOVG SE OUT OF THE FA.
THERE ARE ALSO A FEW SHWRS JUST WSW OF THE FA...ENOUGH TO KEEP
ISOLD POPS FOR XTRM SW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE. OTHERWISE...
THE FA WILL ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ERLY THIS EVE
BEFORE CLDNSS FROM ANOTHER S/WV...OLD CNVCTV COMPLEX MOVE W TO
E INTO THE FA DURG THE OVRNGT HRS AS A SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVR THE GULF OF ME. BLENDED 6 HRLY RNFL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE MORE SIG AND WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA OF SHWRS THAT
CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TDY. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS MORE CNVCTV ELEMENTS MOVE INTO E CNTRL
AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON THE S SIDE OF
THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW QB...SO WE
DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF TOTAL
QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR THE N...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FA BY WED MORN.
LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN WHICH WILL INCLUDE
A MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE N VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY
OVER WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.
MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.
SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.
STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...
WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 211613
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOON UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF SHOWS A SHARP CUT-OFF OF SHWRS
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CNTRL ME...SLOWLY MOVG SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD FOR ERLY AFTN ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES 1
AND 2 AND MENTIONED THAT SHWRS WILL MSLY AFFECT THE REST OF THE FA
ERLY THIS AFTN...THINKING THAT A BACK EDGE OF SHWRS WILL CLR MOST
OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. STILL HOLD OUT HOPE THAT PARTIAL CLRG
FROM ERN QB NOW APCHG FAR NW ME WILL AT LEAST GET INTO FAR NRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. BREAKS IN THE OVC SHOULD GET INTO
N CNTRL AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY VRY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT
ONLY ENOUGH TO MENTION MCLDY VS CLDY SKIES. DID NOT CHG HI TEMPS
ATTM...THINKING LATE DAY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HI TEMPS TO REACH
THESE NUMBERS...RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS
FROM 11 AM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA...IMPLYING A SLOWER RISE
TO POSTED HI TEMPS AT 5 PM.
935 AM UPDATE: ONE MORE UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND
TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER N AND E FOR LATE THIS MORN BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR REF PRESENTATION. MADE CORRESPONDING CHGS WITH
12Z-18Z AND TO A LESSER XTNT 18-00Z QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE FA BASED
ON THIS CHG OF POP DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MINIMUMS OF 0.05 INCHES
EACH PD FOR LIKELY POPS AND AT LEAST 0.15 INCHES FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS. REST OF NEAR TERM ELEMENTS UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.
810 AM UPDATE: VSBYS HAVE RISEN SIG SINCE LAST UPDATE...SO WE
DROPPED THE DENS FOG ADV AND MENTIONED PATCHY FOG TIL LATE MORN...
AFTER WHICH FOG WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ISSUE. THE OTHER MAJOR CHG
WAS TO INCREASE SHWR POPS OVR S AND W PTNS OF THE FA TO BETTER
THE FCST QPF WE SHOW FOR THE 12-18Z PD TODAY...USING THE POP
FROM QPF TOOL. THIS AWARDED CATEGORICAL POPS TO FAR S AND W
PTNS OF THE FA. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES RNFL CONSOLIDATING
SEWRD OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ECHOES
IN THE NW MOVG TOWARD THE NE. EVEN SO...WE HAVE SCT SHWR POPS FOR
THE NE AND FAR NW FOR THIS MORN...WHICH IS HIGHER POPS THAN WE
THOUGHT YSTDY FOR THIS PD AND PTN OF THE FA. LAST CHG WAS TO
RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS FROM THE 8 AM OBSVD
TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA.
6 AM UPDATE: AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.
ORGNL DISC: HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN MANY AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE
MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
TONIGHT. A LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI
000
FXUS61 KCAR 211345
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
935 AM UPDATE: ONE MORE UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND
TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER N AND E FOR LATE THIS MORN BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR REF PRESENTATION. MADE CORRESPONDING CHGS WITH
12Z-18Z AND TO A LESSER XTNT 18-00Z QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE FA BASED
ON THIS CHG OF POP DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MINIMUMS OF 0.05 INCHES
EACH PD FOR LIKELY POPS AND AT LEAST 0.15 INCHES FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS. REST OF NEAR TERM ELEMENTS UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.
810 AM UPDATE: VSBYS HAVE RISEN SIG SINCE LAST UPDATE...SO WE
DROPPED THE DENS FOG ADV AND MENTIONED PATCHY FOG TIL LATE MORN...
AFTER WHICH FOG WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ISSUE. THE OTHER MAJOR CHG
WAS TO INCREASE SHWR POPS OVR S AND W PTNS OF THE FA TO BETTER
THE FCST QPF WE SHOW FOR THE 12-18Z PD TODAY...USING THE POP
FROM QPF TOOL. THIS AWARDED CATEGORICAL POPS TO FAR S AND W
PTNS OF THE FA. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES RNFL CONSOLIDATING
SEWRD OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ECHOES
IN THE NW MOVG TOWARD THE NE. EVEN SO...WE HAVE SCT SHWR POPS FOR
THE NE AND FAR NW FOR THIS MORN...WHICH IS HIGHER POPS THAN WE
THOUGHT YSTDY FOR THIS PD AND PTN OF THE FA. LAST CHG WAS TO
RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS FROM THE 8 AM OBSVD
TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA.
6 AM UPDATE: AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.
ORGNL DISC: HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN MANY AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE
MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
TONIGHT. A LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI
000
FXUS61 KCAR 211234
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
834 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
810 AM UPDATE: VSBYS HAVE RISEN SIG SINCE LAST UPDATE...SO WE
DROPPED THE DENS FOG ADV AND MENTIONED PATCHY FOG TIL LATE MORN...
AFTER WHICH FOG WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ISSUE. THE OTHER MAJOR CHG
WAS TO INCREASE SHWR POPS OVR S AND W PTNS OF THE FA TO BETTER
THE FCST QPF WE SHOW FOR THE 12-18Z PD TODAY...USING THE POP
FROM QPF TOOL. THIS AWARDED CATEGORICAL POPS TO FAR S AND W
PTNS OF THE FA. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES RNFL CONSOLIDATING
SEWRD OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ECHOES
IN THE NW MOVG TOWARD THE NE. EVEN SO...WE HAVE SCT SHWR POPS FOR
THE NE AND FAR NW FOR THIS MORN...WHICH IS HIGHER POPS THAN WE
THOUGHT YSTDY FOR THIS PD AND PTN OF THE FA. LAST CHG WAS TO
RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS FROM THE 8 AM OBSVD
TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA.
6 AM UPDATE: AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.
ORGNL DISC: HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN MANY AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE
MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
TONIGHT. A LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210954
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALLD DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM IN MANY
AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE
NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE MID MORNING
PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT. A
LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT SPREADING
RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HUMID TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-
005-006-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210652
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
252 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM IN MANY
AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE
NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE MID MORNING
PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT. A
LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT SPREADING
RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HUMID TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210626
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
226 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM IN MANY
AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE
NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT. A LARGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTH.
THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FOG
LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210357
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1157 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HUMID AIR
REMAINING OVER THE REGION. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR
EASTERN AREAS WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE BELOW A QUARTER MILE IN MANY
AREAS. RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST A BIT WITH HUMIDITY SLOWING THE
DROP IN AIR TEMPS.
WITH SOME DRYING BEHIND THE INITIAL S/WV RESULTING IN THE SHWRS
EARLIER TDY...NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD GET AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY TUE. ELSEWHERE...MID AND LOW CLDNSS
WILL HANG ON AS A WEAK S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING CNVCTV
COMPLEX GRAZES SW PTNS OF THE FA WHERE WE MENTION A CHC OF SHWRS
TUE MORN INTO ERLY/MID AFTN. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION OF CLDS AND
POPS BY TUE AFTN...WE XPCT A WEAKLY INVERTED S TO N GRAD OF HI
TEMPS THIS PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL UNFOLD FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST.
CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE WINDING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT. EXPECT GENERAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
BY THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AND E/SE WIND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTING HIGHS
ABOVE THE MID TO HIGH 50S.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF RESPITE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL COME
TOGETHER AND THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY IMPACT THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK
OF THE LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE AREA WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AND SEE
MORE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SITUATION VS. A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A STEADIER
RAIN. AT THIS POINT CONTINUED TO LEAN WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z ECMWF...BRINGING IN HIGH LIKELY TO
LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ALSO INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WITH RISK APPEARS
HIGHEST AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES, USED A BLEND OF ALL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS IN
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS. AS MENTIONED, HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN TRACK OF
THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH REGARD TO TIMING/POSITION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS SLOWER IN PUSHING THE FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. 00Z EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...TOOK A BLEND OF
THE FASTER 00Z EC AND LESS PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS WHICH PRETTY MUCH
KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...EXPECT THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MAINLY
DRY AT THIS POINT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS EAST.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD POOL ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP THE
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR AND IFR FRO JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS W/DENSE FOG
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN AND FOG MOVES IN. THIS ROUND OF STEADIER RAIN
MOVES OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO CONTINUING STRATUS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY THURSDAY.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN ANY SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH S WINDS SUBSIDED...WE WERE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SCA
FOR THE INNER HARBOR MZ052 AND CONVERTED THE THE SCA OVR THE OUTER
MZS TO AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS DUE TO PERSISTENT 5 FT SWELL TIL 00Z...
AFT WHICH...WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLO 5 FT ALLOWING THE SCA THERE
TO BE LOWERED. NO HDLNS THEN XPCTD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT
THRU TUE.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-
011-017-030-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCB
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210232
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE: DECIDED ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA FROM CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE DOWN TO THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. LAPS SOUNDINGS AND OBS SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 900MBS W/DECENT DRYING ALOFT PLUS PARTIAL CLEARING.
THIS COMBINED W/LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE WIDESPREAD FOG.
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREAS, CLOUDS W/SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE PER THE RADAR. TEMPERATURES ATTM LOOKED GOOD W/READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.
WITH SOME DRYING BEHIND THE INITIAL S/WV RESULTING IN THE SHWRS
EARLIER TDY...NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD GET AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY TUE. ELSEWHERE...MID AND LOW CLDNSS
WILL HANG ON AS A WEAK S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING CNVCTV
COMPLEX GRAZES SW PTNS OF THE FA WHERE WE MENTION A CHC OF SHWRS
TUE MORN INTO ERLY/MID AFTN. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION OF CLDS AND
POPS BY TUE AFTN...WE XPCT A WEAKLY INVERTED S TO N GRAD OF HI
TEMPS THIS PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL UNFOLD FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST.
CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE WINDING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT. EXPECT GENERAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
BY THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AND E/SE WIND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTING HIGHS
ABOVE THE MID TO HIGH 50S.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF RESPITE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL COME
TOGETHER AND THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY IMPACT THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK
OF THE LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE AREA WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AND SEE
MORE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SITUATION VS. A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A STEADIER
RAIN. AT THIS POINT CONTINUED TO LEAN WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z ECMWF...BRINGING IN HIGH LIKELY TO
LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ALSO INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WITH RISK APPEARS
HIGHEST AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES, USED A BLEND OF ALL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS IN
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS. AS MENTIONED, HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN TRACK OF
THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH REGARD TO TIMING/POSITION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS SLOWER IN PUSHING THE FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. 00Z EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...TOOK A BLEND OF
THE FASTER 00Z EC AND LESS PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS WHICH PRETTY MUCH
KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...EXPECT THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MAINLY
DRY AT THIS POINT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS EAST.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD POOL ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP THE
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR AND IFR FRO JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS W/DENSE FOG
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN AND FOG MOVES IN. THIS ROUND OF STEADIER RAIN
MOVES OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO CONTINUING STRATUS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY THURSDAY.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN ANY SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH S WINDS SUBSIDED...WE WERE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SCA
FOR THE INNER HARBOR MZ052 AND CONVERTED THE THE SCA OVR THE OUTER
MZS TO AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS DUE TO PERSISTENT 5 FT SWELL TIL 00Z...
AFT WHICH...WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLO 5 FT ALLOWING THE SCA THERE
TO BE LOWERED. NO HDLNS THEN XPCTD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT
THRU TUE.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-
011-017-030-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
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