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000
FXUS61 KCAR 200039
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND
THEIR IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD
SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE
EXTENT OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. A MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LESSER
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO 10 TO 15 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.
NOTICED THAT THERE WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR
TOMORROW WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER
CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS
ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER
CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH
CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH
SUPERBLEND. SUPERBLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH
SO WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL
RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD THEN DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG
PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE
UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND
25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER COINCIDENCE
OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200039
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND
THEIR IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD
SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE
EXTENT OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. A MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LESSER
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO 10 TO 15 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.
NOTICED THAT THERE WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR
TOMORROW WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER
CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS
ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER
CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH
CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH
SUPERBLEND. SUPERBLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH
SO WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL
RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD THEN DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG
PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE
UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND
25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER COINCIDENCE
OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 192016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM
WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE SKY HAS CLEARED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL FORM LATER THIS
EVENING AND IT LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERY TRICKY TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFTS FORECAST AS THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO BE EITHER MUCH WARMER (MORE CLOUDS)
OR COLDER (IF IT WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT). SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. NOTICED THAT THERE
WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR TOMORROW WITH A
HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER
CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS
ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER
CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH
CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPER
BLEND. SUPER BLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH SO
WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL
RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
GIVE WAY TO A MVFR CEILING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE DOWN
EAST TERMINALS POCKETS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG
PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE
UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND
25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME... HOWEVER COINCIDENCE
OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191615
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1115 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1110 AM UPDATE...A CLEARING LINE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE LINE HAS PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY. MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE SKY GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THE SKY HAS CLEARED AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR AT KBGR AND KBHB WILL
IMPROVETO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN TODAY AND WILL
CANCEL THE SCA WITH THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
853 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
853 AM UPDATE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING HAD A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 800 MILLIBARS. EXPECT
THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BREAK OR TWO OF SUNSHINE TOWARD SUNSET IF WE ARE LUCKY.
OTHERWISE ANY CLEARING LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED EARLY THIS EVENING.
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS DOWN EAST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE
NRN TAF SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME
THIS AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME
LOW CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB
LATE TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN TODAY AND WILL
CANCEL THE SCA WITH THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
853 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
853 AM UPDATE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING HAD A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 800 MILLIBARS. EXPECT
THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BREAK OR TWO OF SUNSHINE TOWARD SUNSET IF WE ARE LUCKY.
OTHERWISE ANY CLEARING LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED EARLY THIS EVENING.
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS DOWN EAST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE
NRN TAF SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME
THIS AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME
LOW CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB
LATE TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN TODAY AND WILL
CANCEL THE SCA WITH THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 191119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
605 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHG THIS UPDATE WAS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED
ON ERLY MORN TEMPS BEING A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NGT`S FCST LOW
BY A DEG OR TWO. WE RAISED LAST NGT`S LOW TEMP A DEG AND THEN HRLY
INTERPOLATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY MILDER START TO THE MORN...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT THIS
AFTN`S FCST HI TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A DEG OR TWO...SPCLY IF
PARTS OF THE REGION GET SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.

ORGNL DISC: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY
REMAINING E OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW
FLURRIES FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE
DURG THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF
SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW
CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE
TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY
DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER
MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN
FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY...
WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY
OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
605 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHG THIS UPDATE WAS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED
ON ERLY MORN TEMPS BEING A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NGT`S FCST LOW
BY A DEG OR TWO. WE RAISED LAST NGT`S LOW TEMP A DEG AND THEN HRLY
INTERPOLATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY MILDER START TO THE MORN...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT THIS
AFTN`S FCST HI TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A DEG OR TWO...SPCLY IF
PARTS OF THE REGION GET SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.

ORGNL DISC: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY
REMAINING E OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW
FLURRIES FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE
DURG THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF
SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW
CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE
TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY
DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER
MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN
FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY...
WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY
OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF
SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW
CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE
TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY
DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER
MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN
FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY...
WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY
OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF
SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW
CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE
TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY
DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER
MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN
FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY...
WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY
OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF
SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW
CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE
TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY
DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER
MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN
FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY...
WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY
OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF
SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW
CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE
TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY
DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER
MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN
FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY...
WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY
OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190519
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1219 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR CHGS TO HRLY FCST TEMPS AND CLD CVR
FROM LAST FCST...OTHERWISE NO CHGS TO POPS ATTM.

PREV DISC: LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST
WINTER STORM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190519
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1219 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR CHGS TO HRLY FCST TEMPS AND CLD CVR
FROM LAST FCST...OTHERWISE NO CHGS TO POPS ATTM.

PREV DISC: LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST
WINTER STORM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190357
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1057 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE
EXITING LOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190357
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1057 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE
EXITING LOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190357
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1057 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE
EXITING LOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190357
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1057 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE
EXITING LOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT LEAVING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT LEAVING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 182027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PEI THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST
WINTER STORM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW AROUND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS AND
HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO EXPIRE.
DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWN EAST AREAS TO SLOWLY DRY OUT
TONIGHT.  CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. DOWN EAST AREAS SHOULD BE
P/SUNNY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MAINE TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE WITH MID 20S DOWN EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TO VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR TOMORROW...BUT PATCHES OF MVFR STILL
POSSIBLE FROM KHUL NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE TRENDING DOWN DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...CB/DUDA
MARINE...CB/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181649
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1149 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STEADIEST OF THE SNOW TO FALL THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS POINT
ON SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION TO EXPIRE AT NOON...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE SNOW BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS.

852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181649
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1149 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STEADIEST OF THE SNOW TO FALL THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS POINT
ON SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION TO EXPIRE AT NOON...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE SNOW BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS.

852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: BASED ON FACEBOOK AND DOT REPORTS...A NARROW BAND
OF MDT TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
MAINE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN WIDELY
VARYING SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGING FROM A TRACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO UPWARDS OF 9 INCHES JUST INLAND AT CHERRYFIELD...NEAR
THE COASTAL/CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY ZONE BORDER. A FEW REPORTS
SUGGESTS THIS BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND WWRD SOMEWHAT INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF INLAND COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. GIVEN THESE WIDELY
VARYING AMOUNTS...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE
REMAINING DOWNEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA SPECIFYING LCLY
HIGHER SNFL TOTALS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY TIL
NOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT LCLZD BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORN AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE INTO NB
PROV.

ORGNL DISC: NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM.
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL
PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS
OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY
OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: BASED ON FACEBOOK AND DOT REPORTS...A NARROW BAND
OF MDT TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
MAINE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN WIDELY
VARYING SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGING FROM A TRACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO UPWARDS OF 9 INCHES JUST INLAND AT CHERRYFIELD...NEAR
THE COASTAL/CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY ZONE BORDER. A FEW REPORTS
SUGGESTS THIS BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND WWRD SOMEWHAT INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF INLAND COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. GIVEN THESE WIDELY
VARYING AMOUNTS...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE
REMAINING DOWNEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA SPECIFYING LCLY
HIGHER SNFL TOTALS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY TIL
NOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT LCLZD BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORN AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE INTO NB
PROV.

ORGNL DISC: NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM.
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL
PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS
OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY
OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: BASED ON FACEBOOK AND DOT REPORTS...A NARROW BAND
OF MDT TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
MAINE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN WIDELY
VARYING SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGING FROM A TRACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO UPWARDS OF 9 INCHES JUST INLAND AT CHERRYFIELD...NEAR
THE COASTAL/CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY ZONE BORDER. A FEW REPORTS
SUGGESTS THIS BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND WWRD SOMEWHAT INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF INLAND COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. GIVEN THESE WIDELY
VARYING AMOUNTS...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE
REMAINING DOWNEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA SPECIFYING LCLY
HIGHER SNFL TOTALS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY TIL
NOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT LCLZD BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORN AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE INTO NB
PROV.

ORGNL DISC: NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM.
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL
PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS
OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY
OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180538
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:10 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO FCST SN TOTALS THIS UPDATE...WITH
SLIGHT INCREASES OVER SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE
WNTR STM WRNGS ARE IN EFFECT...BASED ON FAIRLY INTENSE RADAR
BANDING OVR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS TO FCST POPS TO
BOOST THEM TO 100 PERCENT OVR THE WNTR HDLN PTNS OF THE FA AT
LEAST TIL ABOUT 12Z. NO CHGS NEEDED TO TEMPS THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCT OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180538
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:10 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO FCST SN TOTALS THIS UPDATE...WITH
SLIGHT INCREASES OVER SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE
WNTR STM WRNGS ARE IN EFFECT...BASED ON FAIRLY INTENSE RADAR
BANDING OVR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS TO FCST POPS TO
BOOST THEM TO 100 PERCENT OVR THE WNTR HDLN PTNS OF THE FA AT
LEAST TIL ABOUT 12Z. NO CHGS NEEDED TO TEMPS THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCT OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 180214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL AREAS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW BEGINNING TO REACH NORTHERN
AREAS. VERY LITTLE IS FALLING OVER WESTERN AREAS. AMOUNTS WERE CUT
BACK A BIT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL AREAS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW BEGINNING TO REACH NORTHERN
AREAS. VERY LITTLE IS FALLING OVER WESTERN AREAS. AMOUNTS WERE CUT
BACK A BIT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 180036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 180030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 172310
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE RAISED IN SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK,
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS GONE OVER THE MOSTLY SNOW, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING AN AXES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 172310
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE RAISED IN SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK,
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS GONE OVER THE MOSTLY SNOW, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING AN AXES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH
A TROF EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...TO NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT...TO SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH
A TROF EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...TO NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT...TO SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 171522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF A MAINE...WITH A TROF
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 171522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF A MAINE...WITH A TROF
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171055
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT
WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY AT THE
FREEZING POINT OR BETTER BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I95. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REMOVE AND/OR REDUCE THE MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE TEXT FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY.
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A LULL OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WATERS, BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171055
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT
WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY AT THE
FREEZING POINT OR BETTER BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I95. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REMOVE AND/OR REDUCE THE MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE TEXT FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY.
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A LULL OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WATERS, BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 170510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MAINLY COSMETIC IN
NATURE. MUCH OF THE REGION IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG. LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER
EVENT. THIS EVENT WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY
W/2 WAVES OF PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 170510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MAINLY COSMETIC IN
NATURE. MUCH OF THE REGION IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG. LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER
EVENT. THIS EVENT WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY
W/2 WAVES OF PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE




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