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000
FXUS61 KCAR 250611
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
211 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS DOWNEAST TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL
PULL EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BLUSTERY COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR CIRCULATES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST AS THE LOW
PULLS EAST AND AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A THIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA PULLS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AIR WILL STILL BE MILD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TAKING THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT IF IT
DOES MAKE IT NORTH IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS THRU 12Z. VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LAET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING A GALE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
AND BE LIGHT TUESDAY AS RIDGING CROSSES THE WATER.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 250412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: CURRENT FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS IS STILL ON TRACK SO
NO CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN
MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL
MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN
BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMIAN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS UNTIL 2 AM.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT
TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUDA/
MARINE...DUDA/








000
FXUS61 KCAR 250059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
859 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE: RN/SHWRS PERSIST ACROSS SPCLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID EVE...SO WE DELAYED THE EXIT TMG OF SHWRS FROM THE
REGION BY 3 HRS...COMPRESSING TO A FASTER EXIT OF THE SHWRS FOR
THE LATE TNGT. LASTLY...MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE
LATE NGT WERE MADE TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AND 7 AM
SAT BASED ON OBSVD TEMP TRENDS AT 8 PM THIS EVE FROM THE PRIOR
TEMP FCST AT THIS HR.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN
MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL
MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN
BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 535 PM UPDATE...NW WINDS...PARTICULARLY GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 25 KT OVR OUR OUTER WATER BUOY SITES...SO WE XCHGD THE
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS TO A REGULAR SCA AND POSTED IT TIL AT LEAST
2 AM...AFTWRDS...MOST MODELS DIMINISH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BLO
SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER MZS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL MSLY REMAIN
BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT
TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 242211
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
535 PM UPDATE: MOST FCST ELEMENTS NEEDED TO BE UPDATED THRU ALL OF
THE NEAR TERM TO RECONCILE POPS AND WX GRIDS WITH FCST QPF AND
OBSVD RADAR REF IMAGERY. WE BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF ANY PATCHY
FOG OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA FOR LATE TNGT...WITH CLD CVR AND N
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH LIKELY NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PATCHY
FOG. WITH SOME CLRG POSSIBLE LATE OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...WE KEPT
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY OVR WRN VLY AREAS. WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LIGHTER WINDS
WEST LATE TNGT. LASTLY...MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT WERE
MADE TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AND 7 AM SAT BASED ON
OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 PM LATE THIS AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN
MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL
MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING
MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 535 PM UPDATE...NW WINDS...PARTICULARLY GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 25 KT OVR OUR OUTER WATER BUOY SITES...SO WE XCHGD THE
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS TO A REGULAR SCA AND POSTED IT TIL AT LEAST
2 AM...AFTWRDS...MOST MODELS DIMINISH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BLO
SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER MZS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL MSLY REMAIN
BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT
TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 241831
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
231 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SOUTHEAST OF THE
SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN MAINE. THE
INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL MEMBER REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA
SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN
MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO PULL
TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE. THERE WILL
BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING
MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH 11
PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/HASTINGS
MARINE...NORTON/HASTINGS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 241609
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1205 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKYCON...POPS...AND HRLY TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SCHEDULE.

SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS
WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE MID 20S AS OF
12 PM TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR NOW...WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS AGAIN BEFORE EVENING PACKAGE TO DETERMINE IF THE SCA
CAN BE FURTHER DOWNGRADED TO AN SCA FOR SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED W/SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS REMAINED UP AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT STARTING
TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 241250
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
850 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKYCON...POPS...AND
HRLY TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON SCHEDULE. FLOOD
ADVISORIES THAT WERE UP HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NO FLOODING
ISSUES REPORTED IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.

SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS
WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED W/SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS REMAINED UP AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT STARTING
TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 241028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE QPF UPWARD THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT WAS
ALREADY FALLEN PER SOME REPORTS COMING IN. EASTPORT IS CLOSING IN
ON 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 48 HRS. RADAR SHOWED A LARGE
AREA NOT SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE
IS ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH HAS RECEIVED OVER 3.5
INCHES AND CLIMBING. FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY. NO REPORTS OF ANY SERIOUS
FLOODING JUST SOME PONDING ON ROADS AND STANDING WATER. SOME
SMALLER STREAMS ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL.

SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS
WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED W/SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS REMAINED UP AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT STARTING
TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 240804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TODAY.

THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE COD.
THE SATELLITE WV LOOP INDICATED THE LOW TO BE FILLING AND STARTING
TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE LAST FEW FRAMES. RADAR LOOP SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINE. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WERE SEEN MOVING WEST FROM NEW
BRUNSWICK ALL THE BACK INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL WERE DOING QUITE WELL AS OF 06Z. 36 HR RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE COME IN W/2-2.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) AND ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING
THE COAST. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FROM A
TRACE ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM
CARIBOU TO MILLINOCKET. STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND
STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SOME GUSTS STILL NEAR 35 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
TO SCA BY 7 AM W/SUSTAINED WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS WERE UP
THERE AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT THEY WERE STARTING TO COME DOWN.
FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 240804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TODAY.

THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE COD.
THE SATELLITE WV LOOP INDICATED THE LOW TO BE FILLING AND STARTING
TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE LAST FEW FRAMES. RADAR LOOP SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINE. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WERE SEEN MOVING WEST FROM NEW
BRUNSWICK ALL THE BACK INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL WERE DOING QUITE WELL AS OF 06Z. 36 HR RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE COME IN W/2-2.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) AND ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING
THE COAST. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FROM A
TRACE ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM
CARIBOU TO MILLINOCKET. STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND
STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SOME GUSTS STILL NEAR 35 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
TO SCA BY 7 AM W/SUSTAINED WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS WERE UP
THERE AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT THEY WERE STARTING TO COME DOWN.
FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 240533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SE OF CAPE COD
STARTING TO MOVE SLOWLY NE. SATELLITE WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TO
BE THE CASE AS THE LOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF OPENING. RADAR LOOP
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING W W/SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
EMBEDDED. 24 HR TOTALS RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST. LESS AMOUNTS
AS ONE TRAVELS NORTHWARD W/<1" OF RAINFALL. THE HRRR 3KM
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL PER
THE RADAR AS WAS THE 00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT 2 AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO EASTERN MAINE. HRLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 240145
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
945 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: LITTLE OR NO CHGS TO POPS...WX AND QPF ATTM...WITH
FCST GRIDS FROM LAST UPDATE LOOKING ON TARGET BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY PRESENTATION. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU
THE OVRNGT TO UN-MODIFIED FCST LOWS FOR ERLY FRI MORN BASED ON
TRENDS SEEN FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS
AT THIS HR.

PRIOR DISC: A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

FCST 6 HRLY QPF FOR TNGT THRU FRI WAS RE-DONE WITH POPS BASED ON
THIS QPF DISTRIBUTION RE-CALCULATED...RESULTING IN AREAS WE XPCT
SIG RNFL (WHICH IS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA) HAVING 100 PERCENT
POPS FCST THRU THESE PTNS OF THESE PDS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY INTENSE RN BANDING
MOVG NW FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY LATER THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY MOVG
NWRD INTO CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF NE ME LATER OVRNGT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT TO THIS BAND
BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND SPCLY 12 AND 18Z GFS
DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF THEN CORRESPONDING
NAM...SREF AND EVEN TWICE THE GFS ENSM QPF OVRNGT INTO FRI. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD OF THESE SOLUTIONS... WE TRIED TO
TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP/QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME
THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE
AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...RN/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 232210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: FCST 6 HRLY QPF FOR TNGT THRU FRI WAS RE-DONE WITH
POPS BASED ON THIS QPF DISTRIBUTION RE-CALCULATED...RESULTING IN
AREAS WE XPCT SIG RNFL (WHICH IS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA)
HAVING 100 PERCENT POPS FCST THRU THESE PTNS OF THESE PDS. WE ALSO
INTRODUCED ISOLD THUNDER TO DOWNEAST AREAS INTO THIS EVE BASED ON
SAT IMAGERY AND LGTNG DETECTION SHOWING SPORADIC LGTNG STRIKES MOVG
TOWARD DOWNEAST ME FROM THE GULF OF ME. WHATS LEFT OF ELEVATED
CAPE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TNGT...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS IN
CASE WE NEED TO XTND THIS MENTION LATER INTO THE NGT. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY INTENSE
RN BANDING MOVG NW FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY LATER THIS EVE...THEN
SLOWLY MOVG NWRD INTO CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF NE ME LATER OVRNGT.
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT
TO THIS BAND BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND SPCLY 12
AND 18Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF THEN
CORRESPONDING NAM...SREF AND EVEN TWICE THE GFS ENSM QPF OVRNGT
INTO FRI. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD OF THESE SOLUTIONS...
WE TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL
QPF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS
THRU THE OVRNGT TO UN- MODIFIED FCST LOWS FOR ERLY FRI MORN BASED
ON TRENDS SEEN FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY
TEMPS AT THIS HR.

ORGNL DISC: A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 231926
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 PM...UPDATE TO ADD TSTMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORTON/FOISY
MARINE...NORTON/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...NORTON








000
FXUS61 KCAR 231926
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 PM...UPDATE TO ADD TSTMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORTON/FOISY
MARINE...NORTON/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...NORTON








000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORTON/FOISY
MARINE...NORTON/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...NORTON










000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORTON/FOISY
MARINE...NORTON/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...NORTON










000
FXUS61 KCAR 231556
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1155 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO REMOVE HIGH WINDS ADVISORY FOR
DOWNEAST MAINE. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE SUBSIDED. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKYCON...POPS...WX...AND HRLY TEMPS. PRECIP IS
NOT SPREADING NORTH AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HEAVY PRECIP FORM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS W/THE
CROWN OF MAINE STAYING PRETTY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SAY N OF
THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON AREAS. THE DRY AIR AND UPPER
RIDGE WINNING OUT ATTM. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING QUITE
WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON QPF
FOR THIS EVENT INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST REPORTS COMING IN
W/LESS THAN AN 0.75" OF RAINFALL SO FAR FROM THIS EVENT W/THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY(1.25"). THIS IS FAR BELOW
WHAT THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NE. GIVEN WAS HAS BEEN
REPORTED SO FAR, DECISION WAS TO LOWER THE TOTAL QPF BY AT LEAST
0.50 INCHES. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
AMOUNTS MIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE TODAY IF THE LATER
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
SINCE IT IS UP. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL HOLD BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
URBAN(CLOGGED DRAINS W/LEAVES) AND LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE NE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TODAY FOR THE COAST. WINDS ATTM ARE GUSTING
TO 30 MPH WITH SOME SITES OVER THE OUTER ISLAND HITTING 35+ MPH.
ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER GUSTS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY W/THE WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN. SO, GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING TO TAPER
TO SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND IS REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY BETWEEN THE LOW EXITING THROUGH
THE MARITIMES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION FOR
KHUL(MVFR) THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB AT IFR. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. KHUL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR W/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT IFR INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FRIDAY IN LINGERING RAIN THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON W/ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOYS ATTM ARE SEEING GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE LLVL JET LIFTS
TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 12-14 FT ATTM AND DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
RIGHT THERE. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
W/12-14 FT DROPPING TO 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 2-4 INCHES LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FIT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE COME OVER THE LAST
24-30 HRS HAVE BEEN UNDER WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL SHOW SOME RISES, BUT WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE W/THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. SMALL STREAMS COULD REACH BANKFULL. THE BIGGEST
PROBLEM WILL BE POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS
AND LOWLAND FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-
     029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 231257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
857 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HEAVY PRECIP FORM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS W/THE
CROWN OF MAINE STAYING PRETTY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SAY N OF
THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON AREAS. THE DRY AIR AND UPPER
RIDGE WINNING OUT ATTM. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING QUITE
WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON QPF
FOR THIS EVENT INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST REPORTS COMING IN
W/LESS THAN AN 0.75" OF RAINFALL SO FAR FROM THIS EVENT W/THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY(1.25"). THIS IS FAR BELOW
WHAT THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NE. GIVEN WAS HAS BEEN
REPORTED SO FAR, DECISION WAS TO LOWER THE TOTAL QPF BY AT LEAST
0.50 INCHES. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
AMOUNTS MIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE TODAY IF THE LATER
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
SINCE IT IS UP. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL HOLD BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
URBAN(CLOGGED DRAINS W/LEAVES) AND LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE NE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TODAY FOR THE COAST. WINDS ATTM ARE GUSTING
TO 30 MPH WITH SOME SITES OVER THE OUTER ISLAND HITTING 35+ MPH.
ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER GUSTS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY W/THE WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN. SO, GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING TO TAPER
TO SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND IS REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY BETWEEN THE LOW EXITING THROUGH
THE MARITIMES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION FOR
KHUL(MVFR) THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB AT IFR. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. KHUL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR W/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT IFR INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FRIDAY IN LINGERING RAIN THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON W/ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOYS ATTM ARE SEEING GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE LLVL JET LIFTS
TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 12-14 FT ATTM AND DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
RIGHT THERE. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
W/12-14 FT DROPPING TO 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 2-4 INCHES LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FIT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE COME OVER THE LAST
24-30 HRS HAVE BEEN UNDER WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL SHOW SOME RISES, BUT WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE W/THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. SMALL STREAMS COULD REACH BANKFULL. THE BIGGEST
PROBLEM WILL BE POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS
AND LOWLAND FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-
     029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 231057
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
657 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS AND QPF AS
WELL BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS. HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE UNDER SOME STRONG DEFORMATION FROM
925-700MBS. FURTHER NORTH, A BATCH OF LIGHTER RAIN AS MOVING WNW
ACROSS EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN A BREAK BEFORE THE STEADIER BATCH
ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DRY UP AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HEAVY PRECIP FORM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS W/THE
CROWN OF MAINE STAYING PRETTY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SAY N OF
THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON AREAS. THE DRY AIR AND UPPER
RIDGE WINNING OUT ATTM. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING QUITE
WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON QPF
FOR THIS EVENT INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST REPORTS COMING IN
W/LESS THAN AN 0.75" OF RAINFALL SO FAR FROM THIS EVENT W/THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY(1.25"). THIS IS FAR BELOW
WHAT THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NE. GIVEN WAS HAS BEEN
REPORTED SO FAR, DECISION WAS TO LOWER THE TOTAL QPF BY AT LEAST
0.50 INCHES. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
AMOUNTS MIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE TODAY IF THE LATER
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
SINCE IT IS UP. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL HOLD BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
URBAN(CLOGGED DRAINS W/LEAVES) AND LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE NE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TODAY FOR THE COAST. WINDS ATTM ARE GUSTING
TO 30 MPH WITH SOME SITES OVER THE OUTER ISLAND HITTING 35+ MPH.
ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER GUSTS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY W/THE WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN. SO, GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING TO TAPER
TO SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND IS REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY BETWEEN THE LOW EXITING THROUGH
THE MARITIMES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION FOR
KHUL(MVFR) THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB AT IFR. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. KHUL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR W/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT IFR INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FRIDAY IN LINGERING RAIN THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON W/ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOYS ATTM ARE SEEING GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE LLVL JET LIFTS
TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 12-14 FT ATTM AND DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
RIGHT THERE. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
W/12-14 FT DROPPING TO 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 2-4 INCHES LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FIT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE COME OVER THE LAST
24-30 HRS HAVE BEEN UNDER WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL SHOW SOME RISES, BUT WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE W/THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. SMALL STREAMS COULD REACH BANKFULL. THE BIGGEST
PROBLEM WILL BE POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS
AND LOWLAND FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-
     029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS TERM WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY.

THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING OFF NJ COAST
W/WAVE OF RAIN MOVING WEST FROM THE ATLC BACK ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THIS LOW WAS STACKED THROUGH 500MBS PER THE 00Z UA
KEEPING THIS LOW PUT FOR NOW. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAINFALL
MOVING BACK TOWARD MAINE FROM THE ATLC OCEAN AND NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ME DOWN THROUGH NH INTO
SOUTHERN VT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS AND
CANADIAN GEM HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HEAVY PRECIP FORM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS W/THE CROWN OF MAINE STAYING PRETTY DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY SAY N OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON AREAS. THE
DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE WINNING OUT ATTM. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM
WERE DOING QUITE WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
PULL BACK ON QPF FOR THIS EVENT INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
REPORTS COMING IN W/LESS THAN AN 0.75" OF RAINFALL SO FAR FROM
THIS EVENT W/THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY(1.25").
THIS IS FAR BELOW WHAT THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING. WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE. GIVEN WAS HAS BEEN REPORTED SO FAR, DECISION WAS TO LOWER THE
TOTAL QPF BY AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS MIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE
TODAY IF THE LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK. WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE IT IS UP. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR
BUT MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL HOLD BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE URBAN(CLOGGED DRAINS W/LEAVES) AND LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTIONS BELOW.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE NE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TODAY FOR THE COAST. WINDS ATTM ARE GUSTING
TO 30 MPH WITH SOME SITES OVER THE OUTER ISLAND HITTING 35+ MPH.
ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER GUSTS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY W/THE WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN. SO, GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING TO TAPER
TO SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND IS REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY BETWEEN THE LOW EXITING THROUGH
THE MARITIMES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION FOR
KHUL(MVFR) THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB AT IFR. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. KHUL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR W/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT IFR INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FRIDAY IN LINGERING RAIN THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON W/ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOYS ATTM ARE SEEING GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE LLVL JET LIFTS
TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 12-14 FT ATTM AND DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
RIGHT THERE. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
W/12-14 FT DROPPING TO 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 2-4 INCHES LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FIT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE COME OVER THE LAST
24-30 HRS HAVE BEEN UNDER WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL SHOW SOME RISES, BUT WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE W/THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. SMALL STREAMS COULD REACH BANKFULL. THE BIGGEST
PROBLEM WILL BE POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS
AND LOWLAND FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 230814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS TERM WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY.

THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING OFF NJ COAST
W/WAVE OF RAIN MOVING WEST FROM THE ATLC BACK ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THIS LOW WAS STACKED THROUGH 500MBS PER THE 00Z UA
KEEPING THIS LOW PUT FOR NOW. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAINFALL
MOVING BACK TOWARD MAINE FROM THE ATLC OCEAN AND NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ME DOWN THROUGH NH INTO
SOUTHERN VT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS AND
CANADIAN GEM HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HEAVY PRECIP FORM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS W/THE CROWN OF MAINE STAYING PRETTY DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY SAY N OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON AREAS. THE
DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE WINNING OUT ATTM. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM
WERE DOING QUITE WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
PULL BACK ON QPF FOR THIS EVENT INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
REPORTS COMING IN W/LESS THAN AN 0.75" OF RAINFALL SO FAR FROM
THIS EVENT W/THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY(1.25").
THIS IS FAR BELOW WHAT THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING. WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE. GIVEN WAS HAS BEEN REPORTED SO FAR, DECISION WAS TO LOWER THE
TOTAL QPF BY AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS MIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE
TODAY IF THE LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK. WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE IT IS UP. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR
BUT MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL HOLD BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE URBAN(CLOGGED DRAINS W/LEAVES) AND LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTIONS BELOW.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE NE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TODAY FOR THE COAST. WINDS ATTM ARE GUSTING
TO 30 MPH WITH SOME SITES OVER THE OUTER ISLAND HITTING 35+ MPH.
ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER GUSTS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY W/THE WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN. SO, GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING TO TAPER
TO SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND IS REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY BETWEEN THE LOW EXITING THROUGH
THE MARITIMES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION FOR
KHUL(MVFR) THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB AT IFR. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. KHUL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR W/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT IFR INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FRIDAY IN LINGERING RAIN THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON W/ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOYS ATTM ARE SEEING GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE LLVL JET LIFTS
TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 12-14 FT ATTM AND DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
RIGHT THERE. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
W/12-14 FT DROPPING TO 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 2-4 INCHES LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FIT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE COME OVER THE LAST
24-30 HRS HAVE BEEN UNDER WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. MAINSTEM
RIVERS WILL SHOW SOME RISES, BUT WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE W/THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. SMALL STREAMS COULD REACH BANKFULL. THE BIGGEST
PROBLEM WILL BE POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS
AND LOWLAND FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 230443
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM UPDATE...UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG ATTM PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR W/RAIN BEING HELD AT
BAY ACROSS THE NORTH. RAINFALL IS SPLIT PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWING ONE AREA CONFINED TO EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE
OTHER ACROSS THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET AREA AND OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS OFFSHORE. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED W/THE ENHANCED CLOUDS PER THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR & CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING WELL
W/THE LATEST SETUP. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE QPF FROM
00-06Z AND ADJUST THE POPS STAYING W/20-40% ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND LEANED W/80+% POPS FOR THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET REGION AND
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 09Z AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL SLOWLY FILL IN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE BY 12Z.
HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT SITUATION
SHOWING UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR, AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND. THIS
BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230443
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM UPDATE...UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG ATTM PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR W/RAIN BEING HELD AT
BAY ACROSS THE NORTH. RAINFALL IS SPLIT PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWING ONE AREA CONFINED TO EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE
OTHER ACROSS THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET AREA AND OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS OFFSHORE. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED W/THE ENHANCED CLOUDS PER THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR & CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING WELL
W/THE LATEST SETUP. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE QPF FROM
00-06Z AND ADJUST THE POPS STAYING W/20-40% ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND LEANED W/80+% POPS FOR THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET REGION AND
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 09Z AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL SLOWLY FILL IN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE BY 12Z.
HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT SITUATION
SHOWING UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR, AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND. THIS
BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

10:00 PM UPDATE...RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS
WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER DOWENAST AND WESTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN FILLING IN LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED FCST TO
CHANGE WORDING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN. OTHERWISE, KEPT POPS
CATEGORICAL. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

10:00 PM UPDATE...RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS
WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER DOWENAST AND WESTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN FILLING IN LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED FCST TO
CHANGE WORDING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN. OTHERWISE, KEPT POPS
CATEGORICAL. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 222216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
ALSO, RAISED TEMPS AND LOWERED DEW POINTS A BIT OVER THE NORTH
EARLY TONIGHT WHERE THE AIR IS STILL DRY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 222216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
ALSO, RAISED TEMPS AND LOWERED DEW POINTS A BIT OVER THE NORTH
EARLY TONIGHT WHERE THE AIR IS STILL DRY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221943
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
343 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS













000
FXUS61 KCAR 221943
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
343 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS













000
FXUS61 KCAR 221938
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
BEFORE ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR
NEAR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A
MULTI-DAY ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL
FLOWS, AND ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE
WATERWAYS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL
STREAMS COULD VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS











000
FXUS61 KCAR 221641
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...THE BAND OF RAIN THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED, WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING BAND NOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS DOWNEAST. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE FIRST
AREA OF RAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE THINKING. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB)
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS
STATIONARY. BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH
ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS.... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED
ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221641
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...THE BAND OF RAIN THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED, WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING BAND NOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS DOWNEAST. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE FIRST
AREA OF RAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE THINKING. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB)
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS
STATIONARY. BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH
ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS.... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED
ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221252
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO OUR
REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR
NORTH. WHILE RAIN HAS MADE IT INTO DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
IT IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. AS SUCH, EXPECT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF POPS
ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS UPDATE. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH
TO PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY, AS PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB)
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS
STATIONARY. BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH
ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS.... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED
ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE ADJUSTED POP...
WEATHER... WIND... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB) IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. BANDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL
BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH ALL HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS....
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS
FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE
TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220826
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
426 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB) IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. BANDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL
BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH ALL HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS....
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS
FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE
TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT












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