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000
FXUS61 KCAR 030401
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1201 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 0000 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 030401
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1201 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 0000 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 030140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS HAS MOVED E ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA AS OF MID EVE. ONE
NARROW BAND OF TSTMS OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY
NORTHEAST OF THE N END OF MOOSEHEAD LK MAY BE RESULTING IN LCLZD
STREAM FLOODING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE RNFL HAS BEEN LGT. BOTH
3-6 HR SYNOPTIC AND HRRR (HRLY) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE GENERAL
RNFL MOVG ACROSS ALL OF THE FA LATER TNGT...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CNVCTN RE-ALIGNING OVR WSW AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE MUCAPES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1000 J/KG WELL INTO
THE LATE NGT.

OTHERWISE...WE INCREASED CVRG OF FOG OVRNGT ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST OBS ALREADY SHOWING MORE DENSE FOG THERE.
OTHERWISE...HRLY FCST TEMPS TO POSTED OVRNGT LOWS AT 5 TO 6 AM
WERE MODIFIED SLGTLY BASED ON TRENDS FROM 9 PM OBS FROM THE PREV
FCST OF TEMPS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 030140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS HAS MOVED E ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA AS OF MID EVE. ONE
NARROW BAND OF TSTMS OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY
NORTHEAST OF THE N END OF MOOSEHEAD LK MAY BE RESULTING IN LCLZD
STREAM FLOODING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE RNFL HAS BEEN LGT. BOTH
3-6 HR SYNOPTIC AND HRRR (HRLY) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE GENERAL
RNFL MOVG ACROSS ALL OF THE FA LATER TNGT...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CNVCTN RE-ALIGNING OVR WSW AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE MUCAPES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1000 J/KG WELL INTO
THE LATE NGT.

OTHERWISE...WE INCREASED CVRG OF FOG OVRNGT ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST OBS ALREADY SHOWING MORE DENSE FOG THERE.
OTHERWISE...HRLY FCST TEMPS TO POSTED OVRNGT LOWS AT 5 TO 6 AM
WERE MODIFIED SLGTLY BASED ON TRENDS FROM 9 PM OBS FROM THE PREV
FCST OF TEMPS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY









000
FXUS61 KCAR 022159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LN OF SHWRS AND SCT
TSTMS OVR NW ME MOVG E...WITH THE STRONGEST OF TSTMS (A FEW)
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL...ALONG WITH GENERALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AN SPS WAS ISSUED
INTO ERLY EVE HIGHLIGHTING THESE ELEMENTS...BUT FCSTS OF SBCAPE
OVR NERN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE NEXT COUPLE HRS WHERE THIS LN IS
MOVG TOWARD IS FCSTNG LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO THE OVRALL TREND OF
THIS LN SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING BY 7 PM OR SO.
OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE CURRENT PSN OF SHWRS...WE NEEDED TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF POPS INTO THE REST OF THE FA BY A COUPLE OF HRS USING
THE TM SHIFT TOOL. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD CVR AND
HRLY TEMPS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND HRLY SFC OBS.
NO CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 022159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LN OF SHWRS AND SCT
TSTMS OVR NW ME MOVG E...WITH THE STRONGEST OF TSTMS (A FEW)
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL...ALONG WITH GENERALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AN SPS WAS ISSUED
INTO ERLY EVE HIGHLIGHTING THESE ELEMENTS...BUT FCSTS OF SBCAPE
OVR NERN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE NEXT COUPLE HRS WHERE THIS LN IS
MOVG TOWARD IS FCSTNG LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO THE OVRALL TREND OF
THIS LN SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING BY 7 PM OR SO.
OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE CURRENT PSN OF SHWRS...WE NEEDED TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF POPS INTO THE REST OF THE FA BY A COUPLE OF HRS USING
THE TM SHIFT TOOL. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD CVR AND
HRLY TEMPS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND HRLY SFC OBS.
NO CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 021932
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE A HIGH THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO
DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.



SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.


SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY









000
FXUS61 KCAR 021642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW ZONES WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT JUST A BIT FURTHER EAST OF WHERE
THESE SHOWERS ARE. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DOWNEAST WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS IN
AREAS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW ZONES WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT JUST A BIT FURTHER EAST OF WHERE
THESE SHOWERS ARE. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DOWNEAST WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS IN
AREAS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 021412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...SOME MIST AND FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN PLACES
ALONG WITH A STRATUS DECK HOWEVER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
IMPROVING SO ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ONE AREA
THAT HAS STARTED TO CLEAR OUT IS THE NW SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO
SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT HAS
FORMED OVER S QB AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE NW BY
AROUND MIDDAY. FOR THIS REASON RAISED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR
TODAY DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO STRATUS
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...SOME MIST AND FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN PLACES
ALONG WITH A STRATUS DECK HOWEVER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
IMPROVING SO ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ONE AREA
THAT HAS STARTED TO CLEAR OUT IS THE NW SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO
SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT HAS
FORMED OVER S QB AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE NW BY
AROUND MIDDAY. FOR THIS REASON RAISED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR
TODAY DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO STRATUS
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 021047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 020902
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE










000
FXUS61 KCAR 020902
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 020501
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH FOG. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY TODAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/WND/SKY/POP
TUESDAY. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25
PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE
STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE
TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING TUESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 020501
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH FOG. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY TODAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/WND/SKY/POP
TUESDAY. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25
PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE
STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE
TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING TUESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 020018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
818 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS DISSIPATED
LEAVING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHWR ACTIVITY MSLY ACROSS WRN AND SRN
PTNS OF THE FA. TSTMS WERE ELIMINATED FROM THE FCST GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVE AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS CVRG. OTHERWISE
HRLY FCST CLD CVR AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE OVRNGT BASED ON
LATEST SAT AND SFC OBS. FCST OVRNGT LOWS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 020018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
818 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS DISSIPATED
LEAVING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHWR ACTIVITY MSLY ACROSS WRN AND SRN
PTNS OF THE FA. TSTMS WERE ELIMINATED FROM THE FCST GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVE AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS CVRG. OTHERWISE
HRLY FCST CLD CVR AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE OVRNGT BASED ON
LATEST SAT AND SFC OBS. FCST OVRNGT LOWS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 012159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ADDED AN HR OR TWO OF ENHANCED TSTM WORDING ERLY THIS EVE FOR THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVR SE ME...AFT WHICH...WE XPCT DISSIPATION OF AT
LEAST THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THESE SHWRS AS SBCAPE CURRENTLY NEAR
1000 J/KG OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HRLY CLD CVR AND FCST TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD TEMPS OVR THE THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 012159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ADDED AN HR OR TWO OF ENHANCED TSTM WORDING ERLY THIS EVE FOR THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVR SE ME...AFT WHICH...WE XPCT DISSIPATION OF AT
LEAST THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THESE SHWRS AS SBCAPE CURRENTLY NEAR
1000 J/KG OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HRLY CLD CVR AND FCST TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD TEMPS OVR THE THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY TOMORROW. THE
GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE
PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT TRACKED THROUGH MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND
THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 011948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY TOMORROW. THE
GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE
PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT TRACKED THROUGH MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND
THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 011625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UDPATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS ZONES
1...3 THROUGH 5...10...AND 31. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SEEN AS WELL ACROSS SW ZONE 5. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UDPATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS ZONES
1...3 THROUGH 5...10...AND 31. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SEEN AS WELL ACROSS SW ZONE 5. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 011305
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UDPATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS. MAINLY CLOUDY THE
REST OF THE MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO BURN OFF.
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO START POPPING UP AS A SMALL WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 011305
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UDPATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS. MAINLY CLOUDY THE
REST OF THE MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO BURN OFF.
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO START POPPING UP AS A SMALL WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UDPATE...DECREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS RAIN FREE. SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN MAINE. SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 011016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UDPATE...DECREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS RAIN FREE. SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN MAINE. SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 010415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST SO UPDATED
FORECAST TO GO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUT OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD
DAWN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST SO UPDATED
FORECAST TO GO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUT OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD
DAWN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 010205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: NO CHGS TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT
WITH THE GOING FCST MATCHING WELL WITH LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY
TRENDS. CHGS WERE MADE TO TUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHWRS WITH THE
APCH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LATE DAY TUE AND TUE NGT...
RATHER THAN TUE MORN AS PER THE PRIOR FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE NGT WERE AGAIN MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD FROM 9 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: NO CHGS TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT
WITH THE GOING FCST MATCHING WELL WITH LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY
TRENDS. CHGS WERE MADE TO TUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHWRS WITH THE
APCH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LATE DAY TUE AND TUE NGT...
RATHER THAN TUE MORN AS PER THE PRIOR FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE NGT WERE AGAIN MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD FROM 9 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 312154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVR SRN
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A 50 MI WIDE BAND
OF SHWRS SLIDING EWRD FROM NW NEW ENG. WE KEPT A CHC OF THUNDER EVEN
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO CG STRIKES OF NOTE OVR OUR REGION FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS IN A LOW SBCAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN THE TROP
LIKE AIR MASS OVR THE REGION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THRU THE EVE...WITH ANY TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LCLZD
VERY HVY RNFL. FCST 6 HRLY QPFS OVRNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO
THE OVRNGT WERE MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD
FROM 5 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 312154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVR SRN
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A 50 MI WIDE BAND
OF SHWRS SLIDING EWRD FROM NW NEW ENG. WE KEPT A CHC OF THUNDER EVEN
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO CG STRIKES OF NOTE OVR OUR REGION FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS IN A LOW SBCAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN THE TROP
LIKE AIR MASS OVR THE REGION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THRU THE EVE...WITH ANY TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LCLZD
VERY HVY RNFL. FCST 6 HRLY QPFS OVRNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO
THE OVRNGT WERE MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD
FROM 5 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 311923
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCTRD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA












000
FXUS61 KCAR 311923
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCTRD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA











000
FXUS61 KCAR 311600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NW MAINE...THERE AREA A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE TIME...OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 311600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NW MAINE...THERE AREA A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE TIME...OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 311353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...LIGH PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS NE
MAINE...OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS NW MAINE. THREAT OF OF
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 311353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...LIGH PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS NE
MAINE...OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS NW MAINE. THREAT OF OF
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 311012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTH WHERE
A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 311012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTH WHERE
A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 310901
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
501 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS











000
FXUS61 KCAR 310901
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
501 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS












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