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000
FXUS61 KCAR 291940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT W/THE
EXPECTATION OF SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS
DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KCAR 291940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT W/THE
EXPECTATION OF SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS
DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY












000
FXUS61 KCAR 291717
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO KEEP 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIES OUT AROUND SUNSET W/SKIES
CLEARING OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 291717
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO KEEP 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIES OUT AROUND SUNSET W/SKIES
CLEARING OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 291400
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
947 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WHICH MEANS A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING
THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN












000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN











000
FXUS61 KCAR 290325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1125 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1125 PM UPDATE...AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 290325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1125 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1125 PM UPDATE...AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 290120
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA THAT
HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND LITTLE/NO SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THERE IS
STILL THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS IN KENNEBEC COUNTY WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE AREA RADARS VERY CLOSELY LATE THIS
EVENING. A DEEP SFC LOW BY JULY STANDARDS IS NEAR PORTLAND. THE
LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BRUSH WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO REFINE THE POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB









000
FXUS61 KCAR 282209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
609 PM UPDATE...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JULY
(997 MILLIBARS) IS CURRENTLY NEAR KPSM. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
BY MID MORNING TUE. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WRN MAINE LATER TON AND MAY
GET SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A 700 MB LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH
BY WRN MAINE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY LOCALLY
PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS
COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH IS 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN
THE FORECAST SEAS BY A FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
THE ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF
7.25" OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 282209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
609 PM UPDATE...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JULY
(997 MILLIBARS) IS CURRENTLY NEAR KPSM. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
BY MID MORNING TUE. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WRN MAINE LATER TON AND MAY
GET SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A 700 MB LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH
BY WRN MAINE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY LOCALLY
PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS
COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH IS 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN
THE FORECAST SEAS BY A FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
THE ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF
7.25" OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2
FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A
FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2
FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A
FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY












000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 281256
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281256
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 281049
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
649 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH ATTM, BUT IT WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS
STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, BUT
SOME OF THE O6Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE LOW COULD BE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD PUSH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN A BIT FURTHER EAST AS WELL. NOTED THAT
WPC HAS UPDATED THEIR DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE
OUR FAR NW AREAS IN A MODERATE RISK. GIVEN THIS AND THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW WILL TRACK, OPTED TO ADD
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO OUR NW ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281049
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
649 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH ATTM, BUT IT WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS
STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, BUT
SOME OF THE O6Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE LOW COULD BE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD PUSH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN A BIT FURTHER EAST AS WELL. NOTED THAT
WPC HAS UPDATED THEIR DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE
OUR FAR NW AREAS IN A MODERATE RISK. GIVEN THIS AND THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW WILL TRACK, OPTED TO ADD
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO OUR NW ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN









000
FXUS61 KCAR 280739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE
WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE
TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS; RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, SUNSHINE TODAY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN











000
FXUS61 KCAR 280739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE
WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE
TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS; RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, SUNSHINE TODAY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN












000
FXUS61 KCAR 280450
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY









000
FXUS61 KCAR 280450
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 280136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
936 PM UPDATE...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADD`L SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NH ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOMERSET COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER REFINE THE POPS SOME
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED MOSTLY ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND ALSO THE NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING TOO
DENSE ATTM. STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE
DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 280136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
936 PM UPDATE...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADD`L SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NH ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOMERSET COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER REFINE THE POPS SOME
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED MOSTLY ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND ALSO THE NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING TOO
DENSE ATTM. STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE
DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
616 PM UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH WHERE IT
HAS TURNED MORE UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB AND VLIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS OF FOG. MVFR TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO
IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT
THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
616 PM UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH WHERE IT
HAS TURNED MORE UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB AND VLIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS OF FOG. MVFR TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO
IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT
THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY









000
FXUS61 KCAR 271853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM.

THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR
LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A
LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX,
ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START OUT THE CYCLE
W/SOME TSTMS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY MONDAY. ACROSS KBGR AND
KBHB, MVFR GOING TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR A TIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KCAR 271853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM.

THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR
LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A
LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX,
ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START OUT THE CYCLE
W/SOME TSTMS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY MONDAY. ACROSS KBGR AND
KBHB, MVFR GOING TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR A TIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY












000
FXUS61 KCAR 271557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1157 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE GRIDS
W/TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING A DECENT NOSE OF INSTABILITY FROM THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION UP THROUGH NORTHERN. 0-6KM SHEAR FROM
THE SOUNDINGS SHOWED UP TO 20+ KTS. SO SOME GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. SB CAPES ARE CLOSING IN BETWEEN 700-1000 JOULES ATTM
W/THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE "SKINNY CAPE" IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE THAT WORDING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SPC ADJUSTED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO PUT NEW ENGLAND IN A GENERAL
OUTLOOK FOR TSTMS INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 271557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1157 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE GRIDS
W/TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING A DECENT NOSE OF INSTABILITY FROM THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION UP THROUGH NORTHERN. 0-6KM SHEAR FROM
THE SOUNDINGS SHOWED UP TO 20+ KTS. SO SOME GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. SB CAPES ARE CLOSING IN BETWEEN 700-1000 JOULES ATTM
W/THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE "SKINNY CAPE" IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE THAT WORDING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SPC ADJUSTED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO PUT NEW ENGLAND IN A GENERAL
OUTLOOK FOR TSTMS INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY ABOUT 2 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RUNNING N ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO QUEBEC. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE
STILL WELL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN ACROSS VT & NH. THIS
AREA IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THIS LARGER AREA
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 1 PM. BOTH MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT AND GOOD HEATING. ANOTHER AREA WILL BE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AS MSAS AND LAPS SHOW A NOSE OF INSTABILITY(LIS AROUND -3)
PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION PER 13Z OBS W/LIS DOWN TO -4 AND SB
CAPES AT 800 J/KG. POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA FOR SOME HAIL AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS CAN BUILD ALONG W/HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED WORDING.

ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z CAR SOUNDING QUITE STABLE TO START BUT HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON COULD CHANGE THINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 271407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY ABOUT 2 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RUNNING N ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO QUEBEC. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE
STILL WELL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN ACROSS VT & NH. THIS
AREA IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THIS LARGER AREA
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 1 PM. BOTH MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT AND GOOD HEATING. ANOTHER AREA WILL BE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AS MSAS AND LAPS SHOW A NOSE OF INSTABILITY(LIS AROUND -3)
PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION PER 13Z OBS W/LIS DOWN TO -4 AND SB
CAPES AT 800 J/KG. POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA FOR SOME HAIL AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS CAN BUILD ALONG W/HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED WORDING.

ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z CAR SOUNDING QUITE STABLE TO START BUT HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON COULD CHANGE THINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ANY
FOG BURNS OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ANY
FOG BURNS OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270735
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 270735
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 270429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE LOW TO
MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING. REASONS BEING
ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND
THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SAYING THAT
STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/CB
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO REACH NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MUCH OF TONIGHT THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE. COULD ALSO
HAVE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE LOW TO
MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING. REASONS BEING
ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND
THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SAYING THAT
STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 270242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO REACH NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MUCH OF TONIGHT THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE. COULD ALSO
HAVE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE LOW TO
MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING. REASONS BEING
ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND
THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SAYING THAT
STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 262203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
603 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MAINE IN ADVANCE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED NORTHWEST OF MAINE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALSO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR EVENING SHOWER CHANCES AND SKY
COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ALONG W/THE GEM SUPPORT SOME
LLVL MOISTURE GETTING UNDER THE DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
PLUS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND IN PLACE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
SETUP FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, ADDED FOG STARTING
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING W/THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND COAST.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE
LOW TO MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER
AND TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING.
REASONS BEING ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS
IS NOT SAYING THAT STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE
CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS
WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL
FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ATTM. THERE IS A SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE
WATERS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING AT LEAST A GOOD FOOT BELOW
THE GUIDANCE AND DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE WAVE GUIDANCE BY A FOOT
INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10-15 KT
SUSTAINED. THIS SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 FT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 262203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
603 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MAINE IN ADVANCE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED NORTHWEST OF MAINE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALSO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR EVENING SHOWER CHANCES AND SKY
COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ALONG W/THE GEM SUPPORT SOME
LLVL MOISTURE GETTING UNDER THE DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
PLUS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND IN PLACE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
SETUP FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, ADDED FOG STARTING
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING W/THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND COAST.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE
LOW TO MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER
AND TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING.
REASONS BEING ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS
IS NOT SAYING THAT STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE
CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS
WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL
FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ATTM. THERE IS A SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE
WATERS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING AT LEAST A GOOD FOOT BELOW
THE GUIDANCE AND DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE WAVE GUIDANCE BY A FOOT
INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10-15 KT
SUSTAINED. THIS SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 FT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT/CB







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