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000
FXUS61 KCAR 020009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER QUEBEC THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WIND AND HRLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MATCH
UP W/THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN PLACE, BUT W/WINDS DROPPING OFF, ADVISORIES COULD BE DROPPED
EARLY. THIS WILL BE VISITED AGAIN W/THE UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ARE MOVING E AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO CAP THE
OVERNIGHT MINS SOME ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING AND THIS ONE, SIMILAR
TO THE OTHER TWO, WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST
REGION AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH SNOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY REACHING THE
NORTH LATE MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TAKING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE LATE MONDAY THEN ON ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DOWNEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WITH
WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
THEN END LATER MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS...6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AREAS AND 10 TO 16 INCHES DOWNEAST. DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
WRAP AROUND SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH WARNING
LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
LONG TERM...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS ENDS THE SNOW FIRST
THING THURSDAY MORNING AS IT TAKES THE PRIMARY LOW QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE 12Z ECMWF IN CONTRAST KEEPS THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR DOWN EAST MAINE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC AND MOVES IT
NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW
DURING THE MID MORNING MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY.
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SNOW. VFR
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED
BEGINNING MIDDAY MONDAY FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
WILL BE UP MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 020009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER QUEBEC THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WIND AND HRLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MATCH
UP W/THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN PLACE, BUT W/WINDS DROPPING OFF, ADVISORIES COULD BE DROPPED
EARLY. THIS WILL BE VISITED AGAIN W/THE UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ARE MOVING E AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO CAP THE
OVERNIGHT MINS SOME ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING AND THIS ONE, SIMILAR
TO THE OTHER TWO, WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST
REGION AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH SNOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY REACHING THE
NORTH LATE MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TAKING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE LATE MONDAY THEN ON ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DOWNEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WITH
WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
THEN END LATER MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS...6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AREAS AND 10 TO 16 INCHES DOWNEAST. DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
WRAP AROUND SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH WARNING
LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
LONG TERM...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS ENDS THE SNOW FIRST
THING THURSDAY MORNING AS IT TAKES THE PRIMARY LOW QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE 12Z ECMWF IN CONTRAST KEEPS THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR DOWN EAST MAINE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC AND MOVES IT
NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW
DURING THE MID MORNING MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY.
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SNOW. VFR
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED
BEGINNING MIDDAY MONDAY FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
WILL BE UP MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012151
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
451 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER QUEBEC THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ANOTHER MAJOR
WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING AND THIS ONE, SIMILAR TO THE OTHER
TWO, WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST REGION AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH SNOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY REACHING THE
NORTH LATE MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TAKING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE LATE MONDAY THEN ON ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DOWNEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WITH WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
THEN END LATER MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS...6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AREAS AND 10 TO 16 INCHES DOWNEAST. DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
WRAP AROUND SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH WARNING
LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
LONG TERM...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS ENDS THE SNOW FIRST
THING THURSDAY MORNING AS IT TAKES THE PRIMARY LOW QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE 12Z ECMWF IN CONTRAST KEEPS THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR DOWN EAST MAINE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC AND MOVES IT
NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW
DURING THE MID MORNING MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY.
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SNOW. VFR
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED
BEGINNING MIDDAY MONDAY FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
WILL BE UP MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012151
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
451 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER QUEBEC THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ANOTHER MAJOR
WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING AND THIS ONE, SIMILAR TO THE OTHER
TWO, WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST REGION AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH SNOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY REACHING THE
NORTH LATE MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TAKING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE LATE MONDAY THEN ON ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DOWNEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WITH WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
THEN END LATER MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS...6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AREAS AND 10 TO 16 INCHES DOWNEAST. DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
WRAP AROUND SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH WARNING
LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
LONG TERM...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS ENDS THE SNOW FIRST
THING THURSDAY MORNING AS IT TAKES THE PRIMARY LOW QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE 12Z ECMWF IN CONTRAST KEEPS THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR DOWN EAST MAINE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC AND MOVES IT
NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW
DURING THE MID MORNING MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN IFR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY.
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SNOW. VFR
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED
BEGINNING MIDDAY MONDAY FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
WILL BE UP MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 011534
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EASTERN MAINE WITH VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO PRIMARILY
EAST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY IS CLEAR, COLD AND WINDY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN
COLD AND WINDY AND DRY. NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE IN
OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR
AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.  TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING YET HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO THE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH REGARDING THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVG E FROM THE OH VLY SUN OFF THE NJ
COAST ON MON TAKING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR THE SRN NOVA SCOTIA COAST
BY LATE MON NGT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING MDT TO HVY SN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS...SPCLY TO THE COAST AND CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE MON
MORN THRU MON NGT WHERE WE CONVERTED WATCHES TO WRNGS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIG BLSN AND DRIFTING.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN ADVC OF THIS SYSTEM OVR NRN
AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW SHARP OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER SNFL TOTALS WILL
BE PRESENT N OF THE WRNG AREA...SO FOR NOW WE HELD ON TO THE
REMAINING WATCH ZONES TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN THE
EVENT THE TREND OF THE STORM TRACK REVERSES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
S...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER S/WV TROF HAS LESSER AMPLITUDE
AS PER THE 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WE SHOW MAX TOTAL SNFL IN THE 10 TO 15
INCH RANGE ALG THE COAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...KEEPING SN TO LIQ
RATIOS AT 15:1...WHICH WAS THE CASE FOR MOST LCTNS WITH THE PAST
EVENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS STEADY LGT SNFL SHOULD BARELY ECLIPSE
THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY MON EVE...BEFORE THE SN SHIELD BEGINS TO
RETREAT EWRD INTO NB LATE MON NGT...SO SN TOTAL THERE MAY ONLY BE
ARND AN INCH OR LESS. IN ANY EVENT...WITH LLVL ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE
RIGHT TO THE DOWNEAST COAST...THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD SN EVENT
INDEED...WITH WIND CHILLS APCHG ADV CRITERIA EVEN OVR DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM LATE MON NGT...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN AS
SN SN SHWRS...THEN END BY TUE MORN AS SKIES BECOME PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY. FAIR...COLD AND SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA TUE AFT. AFTWRDS...CLDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
APCH TUE NGT. HI AND LOW TEMPS TUE/TUE NGT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSELY COLD AS MON AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT OVRRNG SNFL FOR WED...THEN
UNCERTAINTY RULES REGARDING WHETHER MORE SIG SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR
WED NGT...OR AS WHAT SOME GFS ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...ON
THU INTO PERHAPS THU EVE. THE TMG OF SIG SNFL WILL BE CONTIGENT ON
WHETHER A SFC LOW FORMS ALG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND TRACKS S OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SN...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ON WED
NGT...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHG AND WE DRAW CHC POPS OUT INTO
THU. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
DRY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN TO ARRIVE NO LATER THAN THU
NGT...HOLDING SWAY OVR THE FA INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WITH SN OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE MON MORN AND THEN NRN TAF
SITES DURG THE AFTN...WITH KFVE LAST TO GO DOWN BY EVE. LIFR TO
VLIFR XPCTD OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON AFTN INTO MON EVE IN FALLING
MDT-HVY SN AND BLSN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MON NGT TO MVFR CLGS
AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS THEN BACK TO VFR TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SN IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU MORN...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER MON INTO ERLY
TUE MORN FOR NE TO NW WINDS AROUND THE LOW ADVCG FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FZG SPY ADV
FOR MDT FZG SPY DURG THIS TM. WINDS AND FZG SPY POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH LATER TUE TO SCA...WITH NO HDLNS XPCTD BY WED MORN.
FCST WV HTS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 011534
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EASTERN MAINE WITH VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO PRIMARILY
EAST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY IS CLEAR, COLD AND WINDY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN
COLD AND WINDY AND DRY. NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE IN
OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR
AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.  TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING YET HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO THE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH REGARDING THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVG E FROM THE OH VLY SUN OFF THE NJ
COAST ON MON TAKING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR THE SRN NOVA SCOTIA COAST
BY LATE MON NGT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING MDT TO HVY SN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS...SPCLY TO THE COAST AND CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE MON
MORN THRU MON NGT WHERE WE CONVERTED WATCHES TO WRNGS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIG BLSN AND DRIFTING.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN ADVC OF THIS SYSTEM OVR NRN
AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW SHARP OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER SNFL TOTALS WILL
BE PRESENT N OF THE WRNG AREA...SO FOR NOW WE HELD ON TO THE
REMAINING WATCH ZONES TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN THE
EVENT THE TREND OF THE STORM TRACK REVERSES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
S...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER S/WV TROF HAS LESSER AMPLITUDE
AS PER THE 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WE SHOW MAX TOTAL SNFL IN THE 10 TO 15
INCH RANGE ALG THE COAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...KEEPING SN TO LIQ
RATIOS AT 15:1...WHICH WAS THE CASE FOR MOST LCTNS WITH THE PAST
EVENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS STEADY LGT SNFL SHOULD BARELY ECLIPSE
THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY MON EVE...BEFORE THE SN SHIELD BEGINS TO
RETREAT EWRD INTO NB LATE MON NGT...SO SN TOTAL THERE MAY ONLY BE
ARND AN INCH OR LESS. IN ANY EVENT...WITH LLVL ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE
RIGHT TO THE DOWNEAST COAST...THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD SN EVENT
INDEED...WITH WIND CHILLS APCHG ADV CRITERIA EVEN OVR DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM LATE MON NGT...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN AS
SN SN SHWRS...THEN END BY TUE MORN AS SKIES BECOME PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY. FAIR...COLD AND SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA TUE AFT. AFTWRDS...CLDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
APCH TUE NGT. HI AND LOW TEMPS TUE/TUE NGT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSELY COLD AS MON AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT OVRRNG SNFL FOR WED...THEN
UNCERTAINTY RULES REGARDING WHETHER MORE SIG SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR
WED NGT...OR AS WHAT SOME GFS ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...ON
THU INTO PERHAPS THU EVE. THE TMG OF SIG SNFL WILL BE CONTIGENT ON
WHETHER A SFC LOW FORMS ALG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND TRACKS S OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SN...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ON WED
NGT...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHG AND WE DRAW CHC POPS OUT INTO
THU. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
DRY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN TO ARRIVE NO LATER THAN THU
NGT...HOLDING SWAY OVR THE FA INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WITH SN OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE MON MORN AND THEN NRN TAF
SITES DURG THE AFTN...WITH KFVE LAST TO GO DOWN BY EVE. LIFR TO
VLIFR XPCTD OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON AFTN INTO MON EVE IN FALLING
MDT-HVY SN AND BLSN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MON NGT TO MVFR CLGS
AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS THEN BACK TO VFR TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SN IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU MORN...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER MON INTO ERLY
TUE MORN FOR NE TO NW WINDS AROUND THE LOW ADVCG FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FZG SPY ADV
FOR MDT FZG SPY DURG THIS TM. WINDS AND FZG SPY POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH LATER TUE TO SCA...WITH NO HDLNS XPCTD BY WED MORN.
FCST WV HTS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011006
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
506 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EASTERN MAINE WITH VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO PRIMARILY
EAST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR
AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.  TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING YET HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO THE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH REGARDING THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVG E FROM THE OH VLY SUN OFF THE NJ
COAST ON MON TAKING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR THE SRN NOVA SCOTIA COAST
BY LATE MON NGT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING MDT TO HVY SN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS...SPCLY TO THE COAST AND CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE MON
MORN THRU MON NGT WHERE WE CONVERTED WATCHES TO WRNGS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIG BLSN AND DRIFTING.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN ADVC OF THIS SYSTEM OVR NRN
AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW SHARP OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER SNFL TOTALS WILL
BE PRESENT N OF THE WRNG AREA...SO FOR NOW WE HELD ON TO THE
REMAINING WATCH ZONES TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN THE
EVENT THE TREND OF THE STORM TRACK REVERSES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
S...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER S/WV TROF HAS LESSER AMPLITUDE
AS PER THE 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WE SHOW MAX TOTAL SNFL IN THE 10 TO 15
INCH RANGE ALG THE COAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...KEEPING SN TO LIQ
RATIOS AT 15:1...WHICH WAS THE CASE FOR MOST LCTNS WITH THE PAST
EVENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS STEADY LGT SNFL SHOULD BARELY ECLIPSE
THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY MON EVE...BEFORE THE SN SHIELD BEGINS TO
RETREAT EWRD INTO NB LATE MON NGT...SO SN TOTAL THERE MAY ONLY BE
ARND AN INCH OR LESS. IN ANY EVENT...WITH LLVL ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE
RIGHT TO THE DOWNEAST COAST...THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD SN EVENT
INDEED...WITH WIND CHILLS APCHG ADV CRITERIA EVEN OVR DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM LATE MON NGT...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN AS
SN SN SHWRS...THEN END BY TUE MORN AS SKIES BECOME PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY. FAIR...COLD AND SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA TUE AFT. AFTWRDS...CLDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
APCH TUE NGT. HI AND LOW TEMPS TUE/TUE NGT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSELY COLD AS MON AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT OVRRNG SNFL FOR WED...THEN
UNCERTAINTY RULES REGARDING WHETHER MORE SIG SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR
WED NGT...OR AS WHAT SOME GFS ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...ON
THU INTO PERHAPS THU EVE. THE TMG OF SIG SNFL WILL BE CONTIGENT ON
WHETHER A SFC LOW FORMS ALG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND TRACKS S OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SN...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ON WED
NGT...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHG AND WE DRAW CHC POPS OUT INTO
THU. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
DRY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN TO ARRIVE NO LATER THAN THU
NGT...HOLDING SWAY OVR THE FA INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WITH SN OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE MON MORN AND THEN NRN TAF
SITES DURG THE AFTN...WITH KFVE LAST TO GO DOWN BY EVE. LIFR TO
VLIFR XPCTD OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON AFTN INTO MON EVE IN FALLING
MDT-HVY SN AND BLSN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MON NGT TO MVFR CLGS
AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS THEN BACK TO VFR TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SN IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU MORN...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER MON INTO ERLY
TUE MORN FOR NE TO NW WINDS AROUND THE LOW ADVCG FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FZG SPY ADV
FOR MDT FZG SPY DURG THIS TM. WINDS AND FZG SPY POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH LATER TUE TO SCA...WITH NO HDLNS XPCTD BY WED MORN.
FCST WV HTS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 011006
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
506 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EASTERN MAINE WITH VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO PRIMARILY
EAST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR
AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.  TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING YET HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO THE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH REGARDING THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVG E FROM THE OH VLY SUN OFF THE NJ
COAST ON MON TAKING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR THE SRN NOVA SCOTIA COAST
BY LATE MON NGT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING MDT TO HVY SN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS...SPCLY TO THE COAST AND CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE MON
MORN THRU MON NGT WHERE WE CONVERTED WATCHES TO WRNGS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIG BLSN AND DRIFTING.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN ADVC OF THIS SYSTEM OVR NRN
AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW SHARP OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER SNFL TOTALS WILL
BE PRESENT N OF THE WRNG AREA...SO FOR NOW WE HELD ON TO THE
REMAINING WATCH ZONES TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN THE
EVENT THE TREND OF THE STORM TRACK REVERSES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
S...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER S/WV TROF HAS LESSER AMPLITUDE
AS PER THE 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WE SHOW MAX TOTAL SNFL IN THE 10 TO 15
INCH RANGE ALG THE COAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...KEEPING SN TO LIQ
RATIOS AT 15:1...WHICH WAS THE CASE FOR MOST LCTNS WITH THE PAST
EVENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS STEADY LGT SNFL SHOULD BARELY ECLIPSE
THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY MON EVE...BEFORE THE SN SHIELD BEGINS TO
RETREAT EWRD INTO NB LATE MON NGT...SO SN TOTAL THERE MAY ONLY BE
ARND AN INCH OR LESS. IN ANY EVENT...WITH LLVL ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE
RIGHT TO THE DOWNEAST COAST...THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD SN EVENT
INDEED...WITH WIND CHILLS APCHG ADV CRITERIA EVEN OVR DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM LATE MON NGT...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN AS
SN SN SHWRS...THEN END BY TUE MORN AS SKIES BECOME PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY. FAIR...COLD AND SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA TUE AFT. AFTWRDS...CLDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
APCH TUE NGT. HI AND LOW TEMPS TUE/TUE NGT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSELY COLD AS MON AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT OVRRNG SNFL FOR WED...THEN
UNCERTAINTY RULES REGARDING WHETHER MORE SIG SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR
WED NGT...OR AS WHAT SOME GFS ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...ON
THU INTO PERHAPS THU EVE. THE TMG OF SIG SNFL WILL BE CONTIGENT ON
WHETHER A SFC LOW FORMS ALG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND TRACKS S OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SN...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ON WED
NGT...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHG AND WE DRAW CHC POPS OUT INTO
THU. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
DRY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN TO ARRIVE NO LATER THAN THU
NGT...HOLDING SWAY OVR THE FA INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WITH SN OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE MON MORN AND THEN NRN TAF
SITES DURG THE AFTN...WITH KFVE LAST TO GO DOWN BY EVE. LIFR TO
VLIFR XPCTD OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON AFTN INTO MON EVE IN FALLING
MDT-HVY SN AND BLSN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MON NGT TO MVFR CLGS
AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS THEN BACK TO VFR TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SN IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU MORN...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER MON INTO ERLY
TUE MORN FOR NE TO NW WINDS AROUND THE LOW ADVCG FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FZG SPY ADV
FOR MDT FZG SPY DURG THIS TM. WINDS AND FZG SPY POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH LATER TUE TO SCA...WITH NO HDLNS XPCTD BY WED MORN.
FCST WV HTS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010954
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
454 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EASTERN MAINE WITH VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO PRIMARILY
EAST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR
AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.  TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING YET HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO THE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH REGARDING THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVG E FROM THE OH VLY SUN OFF THE NJ
COAST ON MON TAKING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR THE SRN NOVA SCOTIA COAST
BY LATE MON NGT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING MDT TO HVY SN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS...SPCLY TO THE COAST AND CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE MON
MORN THRU MON NGT WHERE WE CONVERTED WATCHES TO WRNGS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIG BLSN AND DRIFTING.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN ADVC OF THIS SYSTEM OVR NRN
AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW SHARP OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER SNFL TOTALS WILL
BE PRESENT N OF THE WRNG AREA...SO FOR NOW WE HELD ON TO THE
REMAINING WATCH ZONES TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN THE
EVENT THE TREND OF THE STORM TRACK REVERSES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
S...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER S/WV TROF HAS LESSER AMPLITUDE
AS PER THE 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WE SHOW MAX TOTAL SNFL IN THE 10 TO 15
INCH RANGE ALG THE COAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. ATTM...IT APPEARS
STEADY LGT SNFL SHOULD BARELY ECLIPSE THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY MON
EVE...BEFORE THE SN SHIELD BEGINS TO RETREAT EWRD INTO NB LATE MON
NGT...SO SN TOTAL THERE MAY ONLY BE ARND AN INCH OR LESS.

FOLLOWING THE STORM LATE MON NGT...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN AS
SN SN SHWRS...THEN END BY TUE MORN AS SKIES BECOME PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY. FAIR...COLD AND SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA TUE AFT. AFTWRDS...CLDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
APCH TUE NGT. HI AND LOW TEMPS TUE/TUE NGT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSELY COLD AS MON AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT OVRRNG SNFL FOR WED...THEN
UNCERTAINTY RULES REGARDING WHETHER MORE SIG SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR
WED NGT...OR AS WHAT SOME GFS ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...ON
THU INTO PERHAPS THU EVE. THE TMG OF SIG SNFL WILL BE CONTIGENT ON
WHETHER A SFC LOW FORMS ALG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND TRACKS S OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SN...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ON WED
NGT...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHG AND WE DRAW CHC POPS OUT INTO
THU. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
DRY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN TO ARRIVE NO LATER THAN THU
NGT...HOLDING SWAY OVR THE FA INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WITH SN OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE MON MORN AND THEN NRN TAF
SITES DURG THE AFTN...WITH KFVE LAST TO GO DOWN BY EVE. LIFR TO
VLIFR XPCTD OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON AFTN INTO MON EVE IN FALLING
MDT-HVY SN AND BLSN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MON NGT TO MVFR CLGS
AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS THEN BACK TO VFR TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SN IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU MORN...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER MON INTO ERLY
TUE MORN FOR NE TO NW WINDS AROUND THE LOW ADVCG FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FZG SPY ADV
FOR MDT FZG SPY DURG THIS TM. WINDS AND FZG SPY POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH LATER TUE TO SCA...WITH NO HDLNS XPCTD BY WED MORN.
FCST WV HTS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010954
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
454 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EASTERN MAINE WITH VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO PRIMARILY
EAST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR
AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.  TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING YET HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO THE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH REGARDING THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVG E FROM THE OH VLY SUN OFF THE NJ
COAST ON MON TAKING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR THE SRN NOVA SCOTIA COAST
BY LATE MON NGT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING MDT TO HVY SN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS...SPCLY TO THE COAST AND CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE MON
MORN THRU MON NGT WHERE WE CONVERTED WATCHES TO WRNGS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIG BLSN AND DRIFTING.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN ADVC OF THIS SYSTEM OVR NRN
AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW SHARP OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER SNFL TOTALS WILL
BE PRESENT N OF THE WRNG AREA...SO FOR NOW WE HELD ON TO THE
REMAINING WATCH ZONES TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN THE
EVENT THE TREND OF THE STORM TRACK REVERSES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
S...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER S/WV TROF HAS LESSER AMPLITUDE
AS PER THE 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WE SHOW MAX TOTAL SNFL IN THE 10 TO 15
INCH RANGE ALG THE COAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. ATTM...IT APPEARS
STEADY LGT SNFL SHOULD BARELY ECLIPSE THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY MON
EVE...BEFORE THE SN SHIELD BEGINS TO RETREAT EWRD INTO NB LATE MON
NGT...SO SN TOTAL THERE MAY ONLY BE ARND AN INCH OR LESS.

FOLLOWING THE STORM LATE MON NGT...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN AS
SN SN SHWRS...THEN END BY TUE MORN AS SKIES BECOME PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY. FAIR...COLD AND SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA TUE AFT. AFTWRDS...CLDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
APCH TUE NGT. HI AND LOW TEMPS TUE/TUE NGT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSELY COLD AS MON AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT OVRRNG SNFL FOR WED...THEN
UNCERTAINTY RULES REGARDING WHETHER MORE SIG SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR
WED NGT...OR AS WHAT SOME GFS ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...ON
THU INTO PERHAPS THU EVE. THE TMG OF SIG SNFL WILL BE CONTIGENT ON
WHETHER A SFC LOW FORMS ALG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND TRACKS S OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SN...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ON WED
NGT...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHG AND WE DRAW CHC POPS OUT INTO
THU. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
DRY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN TO ARRIVE NO LATER THAN THU
NGT...HOLDING SWAY OVR THE FA INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WITH SN OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE MON MORN AND THEN NRN TAF
SITES DURG THE AFTN...WITH KFVE LAST TO GO DOWN BY EVE. LIFR TO
VLIFR XPCTD OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON AFTN INTO MON EVE IN FALLING
MDT-HVY SN AND BLSN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MON NGT TO MVFR CLGS
AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS THEN BACK TO VFR TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SN IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU MORN...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER MON INTO ERLY
TUE MORN FOR NE TO NW WINDS AROUND THE LOW ADVCG FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FZG SPY ADV
FOR MDT FZG SPY DURG THIS TM. WINDS AND FZG SPY POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH LATER TUE TO SCA...WITH NO HDLNS XPCTD BY WED MORN.
FCST WV HTS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010536
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0030 EST: TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BELOW
ZERO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE MINUS
TEENS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE CANCELED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS SYSTEM IS
NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NEW JERSEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW
POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER.

A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...OKULSKI/
MARINE...OKULSKI/





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010536
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0030 EST: TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BELOW
ZERO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE MINUS
TEENS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE CANCELED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS SYSTEM IS
NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NEW JERSEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW
POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER.

A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...OKULSKI/
MARINE...OKULSKI/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
836 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE CANCELED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS SYSTEM IS
NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NEW JERSEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW
POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER.

A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
836 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE CANCELED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS SYSTEM IS
NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NEW JERSEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW
POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER.

A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
836 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE CANCELED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS SYSTEM IS
NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NEW JERSEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW
POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER.

A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 312334
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE 0625 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL SOME SNOW BANDS OVER EAST SO
WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING A LITTLE LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-016-017-029-030-032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 312334
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE 0625 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL SOME SNOW BANDS OVER EAST SO
WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING A LITTLE LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-016-017-029-030-032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 312039
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-016-017-029-030-032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 312039
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-016-017-029-030-032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...SNOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY CONTINUES OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOME INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. WESTERN AREAS ARE
SLOWING BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN EASTERN AREAS WITH ANOTHER INCH UP NORTH BEFORE THE
SNOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY.
DEFORMATION BANDING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS
FORCING. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW
WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM
CENTER AND THE BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY
THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...SNOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY CONTINUES OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOME INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. WESTERN AREAS ARE
SLOWING BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN EASTERN AREAS WITH ANOTHER INCH UP NORTH BEFORE THE
SNOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY.
DEFORMATION BANDING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS
FORCING. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW
WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM
CENTER AND THE BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY
THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE DURING THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC AIR IS FILTERING IN THE AREA
AND TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH AND TEENS
DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
IN EAST CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
BEFORE IT TAPERS DOWN TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY.
DEFORMATION BANDING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS
FORCING. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW
WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM
CENTER AND THE BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY
THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE DURING THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC AIR IS FILTERING IN THE AREA
AND TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH AND TEENS
DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
IN EAST CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
BEFORE IT TAPERS DOWN TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY.
DEFORMATION BANDING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS
FORCING. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW
WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM
CENTER AND THE BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY
THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING, MAINLY WITH THE
SNOW FORECAST. RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY IS STARTING TO PIVOT, BECOMING MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED WITH TIME. THIS IS OCCURRING A BIT EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE UNDER THIS BAND COULD STILL PICK
UP 3 TO 5 INCHES THIS MORNING, WHILE LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST MAY ONLY SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOW IS ALSO TOUGH TO DISCERN; IT IS LIKELY NOT MUCH FURTHER
WEST THAN ALLAGASH. THE FAR WESTERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY SHOULDN`T
SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMLATION BEFORE THE SNOW STOPS LATER THIS
MORNING. ALSO NOTE THAT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK
ON QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS MORNING. GIVEN ALL THIS, HAVE
ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THIS
DID NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL RANGES MUCH, AND STILL EXPECT THAT
WHEREVER THE SNOW BAND`S PIVOT POINT SETS UP, THERE COULD STILL BE
A DECENT AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT THE WESTERN FRINGE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING, DEPENDING
ON RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY.
DEFORMATION BANDING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS
FORCING. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW
WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM
CENTER AND THE BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY
THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
425 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY. DEFORMATION BANDING WILL
CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING
ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS FORCING. THESE
BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MAINE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL THEN END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM CENTER AND THE
BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST,
WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY THE TIME ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&


.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
425 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY. DEFORMATION BANDING WILL
CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING
ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS FORCING. THESE
BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MAINE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL THEN END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM CENTER AND THE
BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST,
WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY THE TIME ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&


.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...RADAR IS INDICATING A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ATTM. ALSO EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO RAMP
UP DOWNEAST AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
MOVING ONSHORE. WIND ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT THIS HOUR, SO
BLOWING SNOW IS BECOMING A CONCERN. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
WEATHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SNOWFALL REPORTS. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF
THE AREA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF
SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS
15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE
STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6
INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL
BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO
MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND
WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS
AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY. THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE
HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD- LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...RADAR IS INDICATING A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ATTM. ALSO EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO RAMP
UP DOWNEAST AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
MOVING ONSHORE. WIND ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT THIS HOUR, SO
BLOWING SNOW IS BECOMING A CONCERN. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
WEATHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SNOWFALL REPORTS. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF
THE AREA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF
SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS
15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE
STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6
INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL
BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO
MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND
WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS
AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY. THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE
HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD- LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310241
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
941 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 2130 EST: BASED ON SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS COASTAL AREAS
WHERE IT HAS BEEN RAIN ARE NOW GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...
HOWEVER HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE
OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS
IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE
COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS
TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6 INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY.
THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
639 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1830 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG COAST CONTINUE
TO FIT IN WITH FORECAST.

THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE
OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS
IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE
COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS
TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6 INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY.
THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
639 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1830 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG COAST CONTINUE
TO FIT IN WITH FORECAST.

THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE
OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS
IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE
COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS
TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6 INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY.
THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE
OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS
IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE
COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS
TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6 INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY.
THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE
OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS
IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE
COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS
TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6 INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY.
THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301828
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
128 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE...
SNOW RATIOS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH ARE RUNNING 20 TO ONE IN
NORTHERN ZONES WITH AROUND 4 INCHES AT CARIBOU ALREADY. 12Z
GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A LARGE PART OF THE
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OCCURS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
THE INVERTED TROUGH. THERE WILL BE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...DRY
AIR FEEDS INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...MEANING LESS QPF WITH THE TROWAL
LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS. DOWN EAST WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WERE
REDUCED THE MOST IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE...WHILE GRAND TOTALS JUST
OVER A FOOT ARE STILL LIKELY DOWN EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
KHUL SOUTH AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE THIS MORNING. AS THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SO FAR THIS MONTH A TOTAL OF 31.2" OF SNOW HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 10TH SNOWIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STORM AFFECTING THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL MOVE THE MONTHLY TOTAL OVER 40
INCHES AND INTO 3RD PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF BREAKING THE ALL-
TIME RECORD OF 48.4" IF 17.3" OF SNOW FALL DURING THE STORM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301828
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
128 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE...
SNOW RATIOS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH ARE RUNNING 20 TO ONE IN
NORTHERN ZONES WITH AROUND 4 INCHES AT CARIBOU ALREADY. 12Z
GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A LARGE PART OF THE
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OCCURS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
THE INVERTED TROUGH. THERE WILL BE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...DRY
AIR FEEDS INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...MEANING LESS QPF WITH THE TROWAL
LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS. DOWN EAST WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WERE
REDUCED THE MOST IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE...WHILE GRAND TOTALS JUST
OVER A FOOT ARE STILL LIKELY DOWN EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
KHUL SOUTH AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE THIS MORNING. AS THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SO FAR THIS MONTH A TOTAL OF 31.2" OF SNOW HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 10TH SNOWIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STORM AFFECTING THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL MOVE THE MONTHLY TOTAL OVER 40
INCHES AND INTO 3RD PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF BREAKING THE ALL-
TIME RECORD OF 48.4" IF 17.3" OF SNOW FALL DURING THE STORM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1011 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS HAVE BEEN EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. LOW
PRES HAS MOVED TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN US...ALLOWING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN
INCREASING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE FORCING AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE CAROLINAS AS THE EXIT AREA OF A STRONG
UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM OF
THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES. ALL
OF THIS POINTS TO A FORECAST THAT REMAINS ON TRACK. THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT WAS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN QPF AND OVERALL SNOWFALL FOR
THE STORM BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
KHUL SOUTH AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE THIS MORNING. AS THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SO FAR THIS MONTH A TOTAL OF 31.2" OF SNOW HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 10TH SNOWIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STORM AFFECTING THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL MOVE THE MONTHLY TOTAL OVER 40
INCHES AND INTO 3RD PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF BREAKING THE ALL-
TIME RECORD OF 48.4" IF 17.3" OF SNOW FALL DURING THE STORM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1011 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS HAVE BEEN EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. LOW
PRES HAS MOVED TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN US...ALLOWING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN
INCREASING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE FORCING AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE CAROLINAS AS THE EXIT AREA OF A STRONG
UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM OF
THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES. ALL
OF THIS POINTS TO A FORECAST THAT REMAINS ON TRACK. THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT WAS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN QPF AND OVERALL SNOWFALL FOR
THE STORM BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
KHUL SOUTH AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE THIS MORNING. AS THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SO FAR THIS MONTH A TOTAL OF 31.2" OF SNOW HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 10TH SNOWIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STORM AFFECTING THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL MOVE THE MONTHLY TOTAL OVER 40
INCHES AND INTO 3RD PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF BREAKING THE ALL-
TIME RECORD OF 48.4" IF 17.3" OF SNOW FALL DURING THE STORM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301118
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
618 AM UPDATE...THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD. LOW PRES IS JUST WEST OF
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NY STATE.
THE ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO THE AREA OF GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE SPREADING EAST THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING
REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS CARIBOU AS OF 6 AM. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE AND AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
KHUL SOUTH AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE THIS MORNING. AS THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THIS MONTH A TOTAL OF 31.2" OF SNOW HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 10TH SNOWIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STORM AFFECTING THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL MOVE THE MONTHLY TOTAL OVER 40
INCHES AND INTO 3RD PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF BREAKING THE ALL-
TIME RECORD OF 48.4" IF 17.3" OF SNOW FALL DURING THE STORM.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301118
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
618 AM UPDATE...THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD. LOW PRES IS JUST WEST OF
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NY STATE.
THE ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO THE AREA OF GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE SPREADING EAST THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING
REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS CARIBOU AS OF 6 AM. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE AND AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
KHUL SOUTH AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE THIS MORNING. AS THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THIS MONTH A TOTAL OF 31.2" OF SNOW HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 10TH SNOWIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STORM AFFECTING THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL MOVE THE MONTHLY TOTAL OVER 40
INCHES AND INTO 3RD PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF BREAKING THE ALL-
TIME RECORD OF 48.4" IF 17.3" OF SNOW FALL DURING THE STORM.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300725
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
225 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING IN -SN.  AS
THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT
IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.  SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING STARTING
AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300725
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
225 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND NEW YORK STATE WILL RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHER TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH INTO NY STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE ENERGY
GETS TRANSFERED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS
THE OCEAN LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AT IT LIFTS UP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z SAT.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL THE
FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO A
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TOWARD THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. MESO SCALE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY VERY HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO INTRODUCE AREAS
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE QPF AND 6 HOUR
SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOWY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TURNING COLDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS TO EXIT
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 18 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND WITH PLENTY OF NEW LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO BECOME
LOFTED, TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-DRIFT-
COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WILL DROP
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL BARELY STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THINGS WON`T IMPROVE
MUCH ON SUNDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND ZERO OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL SEE HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WIND ALSO MEANS SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS WILL NOT WARM ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY; EVEN THOSE PLACES THAT DO (MAINLY DOWNEAST) WILL
NOT BREAK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS. THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF SNOW BRUSHING THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM -10F ALONG THE COAST TO -25F IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS COLD KEEPS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.THE 30/00Z GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE TIME TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND OFF THE MAINE
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOW PUSHED WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS STORM
WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING IN -SN.  AS
THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT
IFR AND AREAS OF VLIFR.  SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
SNOW EXPECTED BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
ENDING THE SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW IN BHB AND PERHAPS KBGR AND KHUL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING STARTING
AT 06Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
AND IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS UP TO
45 KT ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, SO THE GALE WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO EXPIRE THEN. HOWEVER, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300513
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1214 AM UPDATE...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS. SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO. AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND
THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE. LIGHT SNOW AS OF
MIDNIGHT AT QUEBEC CITY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THEN SPREAD EAST
TOWARD MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING TO
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN
ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING. LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUITE SHARPLY DOWN EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ONSET...REACHING NEAR 30F BY DAYBREAK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH LIGHT SNOW HITTING WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND SLOWING SPREADING EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER WILL BE ARRIVING OUT OF QUEBEC...BUT
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OFF THE EASTERN MASS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS
INTENSIFYING LOW INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVIER SNOW WILL START TO BREAK OUT ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE LINE
FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE ALLAGASH. AREAS
UNDER THIS LINE MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING WHILE AREAS
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER MAY ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO BY EVENING.
SNOW RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD CAUSE EVEN HIGHER TOTALS
ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EVOLVING
TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS WILL IMPACT BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD IN
EASTERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME A
BIG FACTOR AS COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY.
EXPECT A LOT DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...CREATING ANOTHER VERY
DIFFICULT DAY FOR MOTORISTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY LIFTED. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH WITH
GOOD DENDRITC GROWTH...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REDUCED BY THE STRONG
WINDS. BUT HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOTALS TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
THAT SHOWS A VERY ROBUST TROWAL AFFECTING THE AREA ALL DAY. HAVE
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO 14-18 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE COUNTY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. A LOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGS SOUTH FROM NWRN CANADA AND WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY EARLY SUN MRNG A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ERN TX WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING NE
INTO THE OHIO RVR VLLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX
FOR MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RIDGED
ACROSS MAINE...THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO SRN KY...THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF VA.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/POP/SKI.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT
TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
SRN KY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH VA INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. BY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF VA ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA. THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR WITH THE LOW ON THE COAST OF VA/NC. BY MON EVNG BOTH
MODELS TAKE THE LOW NE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WRAPPING THE PCPN SHIELD AROUND THE LOW INTO THE NRN GULF
OF MAINE. BY TUE MRNG THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAINTAINING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA. TUES MRNG...A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA...THE GFS INDICATES A
SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
A LOW OVER IA. BY TUES EVNG THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF HUDSON
BAY...THE FRONT MOVE INTO SRN QUEBEC. WED MRNG THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CNTRL ME. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE HURON.
WED EVNG THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO SRN
QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN MAINE. THURS MRNG THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW INTO ERN QUEBEC...MOVE THE FRONT TO ERN NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OVER QUEBEC
CITY...DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL EAST
OF NJ. BY THURS EVNG BOTH MODELS BUILD THE CANADIAN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA...THAT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN -SN EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALL SITES WILL BECOME IFR IN SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
BGR AND BHB. LIFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION ALL OF FRIDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALL DAY SATURDAY
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND ERN
MAINE SAT NGT. MVFR SKYCON...EXCEPT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
DURING SN SHOWERS. SKYCON WILL CLR OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARDS GALE INTENSITIES. HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SAT EVNG...FOLLOWED
BY A SMALL CRAFT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW
MARINE...CB/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300513
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1214 AM UPDATE...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS. SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO. AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND
THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE. LIGHT SNOW AS OF
MIDNIGHT AT QUEBEC CITY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THEN SPREAD EAST
TOWARD MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING TO
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN
ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING. LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUITE SHARPLY DOWN EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ONSET...REACHING NEAR 30F BY DAYBREAK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH LIGHT SNOW HITTING WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND SLOWING SPREADING EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER WILL BE ARRIVING OUT OF QUEBEC...BUT
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OFF THE EASTERN MASS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS
INTENSIFYING LOW INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVIER SNOW WILL START TO BREAK OUT ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE LINE
FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE ALLAGASH. AREAS
UNDER THIS LINE MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING WHILE AREAS
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER MAY ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO BY EVENING.
SNOW RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD CAUSE EVEN HIGHER TOTALS
ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EVOLVING
TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS WILL IMPACT BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD IN
EASTERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME A
BIG FACTOR AS COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY.
EXPECT A LOT DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...CREATING ANOTHER VERY
DIFFICULT DAY FOR MOTORISTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY LIFTED. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH WITH
GOOD DENDRITC GROWTH...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REDUCED BY THE STRONG
WINDS. BUT HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOTALS TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
THAT SHOWS A VERY ROBUST TROWAL AFFECTING THE AREA ALL DAY. HAVE
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO 14-18 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE COUNTY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. A LOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGS SOUTH FROM NWRN CANADA AND WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY EARLY SUN MRNG A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ERN TX WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING NE
INTO THE OHIO RVR VLLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX
FOR MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RIDGED
ACROSS MAINE...THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO SRN KY...THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF VA.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/POP/SKI.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT
TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
SRN KY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH VA INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. BY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF VA ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA. THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR WITH THE LOW ON THE COAST OF VA/NC. BY MON EVNG BOTH
MODELS TAKE THE LOW NE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WRAPPING THE PCPN SHIELD AROUND THE LOW INTO THE NRN GULF
OF MAINE. BY TUE MRNG THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAINTAINING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA. TUES MRNG...A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA...THE GFS INDICATES A
SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
A LOW OVER IA. BY TUES EVNG THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF HUDSON
BAY...THE FRONT MOVE INTO SRN QUEBEC. WED MRNG THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CNTRL ME. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE HURON.
WED EVNG THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO SRN
QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN MAINE. THURS MRNG THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW INTO ERN QUEBEC...MOVE THE FRONT TO ERN NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OVER QUEBEC
CITY...DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL EAST
OF NJ. BY THURS EVNG BOTH MODELS BUILD THE CANADIAN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA...THAT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN -SN EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALL SITES WILL BECOME IFR IN SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
BGR AND BHB. LIFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION ALL OF FRIDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALL DAY SATURDAY
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND ERN
MAINE SAT NGT. MVFR SKYCON...EXCEPT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
DURING SN SHOWERS. SKYCON WILL CLR OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARDS GALE INTENSITIES. HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SAT EVNG...FOLLOWED
BY A SMALL CRAFT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW
MARINE...CB/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2100 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WIND.. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING TO
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN
ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING. LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUITE SHARPLY DOWN EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ONSET...REACHING NEAR 30F BY DAYBREAK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH LIGHT SNOW HITTING WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND SLOWING SPREADING EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER WILL BE ARRIVING OUT OF QUEBEC...BUT
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OFF THE EASTERN MASS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS
INTENSIFYING LOW INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVIER SNOW WILL START TO BREAK OUT ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE LINE
FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE ALLAGASH. AREAS
UNDER THIS LINE MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING WHILE AREAS
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER MAY ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO BY EVENING.
SNOW RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD CAUSE EVEN HIGHER TOTALS
ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EVOLVING
TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS WILL IMPACT BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD IN
EASTERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME A
BIG FACTOR AS COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY.
EXPECT A LOT DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...CREATING ANOTHER VERY
DIFFICULT DAY FOR MOTORISTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY LIFTED. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH WITH
GOOD DENDRITC GROWTH...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REDUCED BY THE STRONG
WINDS. BUT HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOTALS TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
THAT SHOWS A VERY ROBUST TROWAL AFFECTING THE AREA ALL DAY. HAVE
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO 14-18 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE COUNTY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. A LOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGS SOUTH FROM NWRN CANADA AND WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY EARLY SUN MRNG A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ERN TX WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING NE
INTO THE OHIO RVR VLLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX
FOR MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RIDGED
ACROSS MAINE...THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO SRN KY...THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF VA.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/POP/SKI.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT
TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
SRN KY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH VA INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. BY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF VA ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA. THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR WITH THE LOW ON THE COAST OF VA/NC. BY MON EVNG BOTH
MODELS TAKE THE LOW NE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WRAPPING THE PCPN SHIELD AROUND THE LOW INTO THE NRN GULF
OF MAINE. BY TUE MRNG THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAINTAINING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA. TUES MRNG...A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA...THE GFS INDICATES A
SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
A LOW OVER IA. BY TUES EVNG THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF HUDSON
BAY...THE FRONT MOVE INTO SRN QUEBEC. WED MRNG THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CNTRL ME. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE HURON.
WED EVNG THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO SRN
QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN MAINE. THURS MRNG THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW INTO ERN QUEBEC...MOVE THE FRONT TO ERN NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OVER QUEBEC
CITY...DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL EAST
OF NJ. BY THURS EVNG BOTH MODELS BUILD THE CANADIAN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA...THAT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO BHB AND BGR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHWARD...REACHING FVE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL
BECOME IFR IN SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR BGR AND
BHB. LIFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT AT
ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALL DAY SATURDAY
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND ERN
MAINE SAT NGT. MVFR SKYCON...EXCEPT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
DURING SN SHOWERS. SKYCON WILL CLR OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARDS GALE INTENSITIES. HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SAT EVNG...FOLLOWED
BY A SMALL CRAFT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2100 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WIND.. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING TO
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN
ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING. LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUITE SHARPLY DOWN EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ONSET...REACHING NEAR 30F BY DAYBREAK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH LIGHT SNOW HITTING WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND SLOWING SPREADING EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER WILL BE ARRIVING OUT OF QUEBEC...BUT
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OFF THE EASTERN MASS COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS
INTENSIFYING LOW INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVIER SNOW WILL START TO BREAK OUT ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE LINE
FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE ALLAGASH. AREAS
UNDER THIS LINE MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING WHILE AREAS
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER MAY ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO BY EVENING.
SNOW RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD CAUSE EVEN HIGHER TOTALS
ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EVOLVING
TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS WILL IMPACT BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD IN
EASTERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME A
BIG FACTOR AS COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY.
EXPECT A LOT DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...CREATING ANOTHER VERY
DIFFICULT DAY FOR MOTORISTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY LIFTED. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH WITH
GOOD DENDRITC GROWTH...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REDUCED BY THE STRONG
WINDS. BUT HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOTALS TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
THAT SHOWS A VERY ROBUST TROWAL AFFECTING THE AREA ALL DAY. HAVE
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO 14-18 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE COUNTY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. A LOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGS SOUTH FROM NWRN CANADA AND WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY EARLY SUN MRNG A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ERN TX WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING NE
INTO THE OHIO RVR VLLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX
FOR MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RIDGED
ACROSS MAINE...THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO SRN KY...THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF VA.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/POP/SKI.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT
TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
SRN KY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH VA INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. BY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF VA ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA. THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR WITH THE LOW ON THE COAST OF VA/NC. BY MON EVNG BOTH
MODELS TAKE THE LOW NE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WRAPPING THE PCPN SHIELD AROUND THE LOW INTO THE NRN GULF
OF MAINE. BY TUE MRNG THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAINTAINING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA. TUES MRNG...A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA...THE GFS INDICATES A
SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
A LOW OVER IA. BY TUES EVNG THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF HUDSON
BAY...THE FRONT MOVE INTO SRN QUEBEC. WED MRNG THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CNTRL ME. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE HURON.
WED EVNG THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO SRN
QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN MAINE. THURS MRNG THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW INTO ERN QUEBEC...MOVE THE FRONT TO ERN NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OVER QUEBEC
CITY...DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL EAST
OF NJ. BY THURS EVNG BOTH MODELS BUILD THE CANADIAN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA...THAT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO BHB AND BGR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHWARD...REACHING FVE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL
BECOME IFR IN SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR BGR AND
BHB. LIFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT AT
ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALL DAY SATURDAY
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND ERN
MAINE SAT NGT. MVFR SKYCON...EXCEPT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
DURING SN SHOWERS. SKYCON WILL CLR OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARDS GALE INTENSITIES. HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SAT EVNG...FOLLOWED
BY A SMALL CRAFT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/





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