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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTTOM LINE IS SOAKING RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCH UP NORTH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES
DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE.
DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN FOR ADDED FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM FOR MORE.

VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY. SO FAR, AS OF 3 AM, RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.10 INCH IN NORTHERN MAINE AND 0.30 TO 0.50
INCH DOWNEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCH. MORE ON THE WAY
TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
VERMONT TO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME, BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER
TO BRING SOME LIGHTNING TO DOWNEAST, WHERE A CHANCE OF STORMS IS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE STEADIER RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, EXPECTING JUST
RAIN. THERE WAS SOME WET SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH
WITH NO ACCUMULATION, BUT SINCE THEN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
APPEARS TO HAVE GONE TO JUST RAIN.

RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT TENTATIVE ABOUT
THE LOW LEVELS CLEARING MUCH. WENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG, AS WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN, IF THERE
IS ANY CLEARING, BELIEVE THIS WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CAPTURING THE SURFACE
LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW
A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THEIR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH PROBABLY MORE
AREAS LEANING ON THE IFR SIDE MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. ALSO MORE OF
A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR DOWNEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE A FEW STORMS DOWNEAST TODAY AS WELL. WINDY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR, BUT THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS
ALSO QUITE HIGH, RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET THIS MORNING, STEADILY
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR
SEAS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 0.75
TO 1.50 INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM, THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES AND LITTLE OR NO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST RIVERS HAVE FLUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE ICE OUT OF THE STATE, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
VERY LOCALIZED ICE JAMS LURKING. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTTOM LINE IS SOAKING RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCH UP NORTH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES
DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE.
DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN FOR ADDED FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM FOR MORE.

VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY. SO FAR, AS OF 3 AM, RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.10 INCH IN NORTHERN MAINE AND 0.30 TO 0.50
INCH DOWNEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCH. MORE ON THE WAY
TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
VERMONT TO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME, BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER
TO BRING SOME LIGHTNING TO DOWNEAST, WHERE A CHANCE OF STORMS IS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE STEADIER RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, EXPECTING JUST
RAIN. THERE WAS SOME WET SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH
WITH NO ACCUMULATION, BUT SINCE THEN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
APPEARS TO HAVE GONE TO JUST RAIN.

RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT TENTATIVE ABOUT
THE LOW LEVELS CLEARING MUCH. WENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG, AS WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN, IF THERE
IS ANY CLEARING, BELIEVE THIS WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CAPTURING THE SURFACE
LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW
A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THEIR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH PROBABLY MORE
AREAS LEANING ON THE IFR SIDE MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. ALSO MORE OF
A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR DOWNEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE A FEW STORMS DOWNEAST TODAY AS WELL. WINDY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR, BUT THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS
ALSO QUITE HIGH, RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET THIS MORNING, STEADILY
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR
SEAS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 0.75
TO 1.50 INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM, THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES AND LITTLE OR NO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST RIVERS HAVE FLUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE ICE OUT OF THE STATE, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
VERY LOCALIZED ICE JAMS LURKING. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTTOM LINE IS SOAKING RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCH UP NORTH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES
DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE.
DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN FOR ADDED FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM FOR MORE.

VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY. SO FAR, AS OF 3 AM, RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.10 INCH IN NORTHERN MAINE AND 0.30 TO 0.50
INCH DOWNEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCH. MORE ON THE WAY
TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
VERMONT TO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME, BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER
TO BRING SOME LIGHTNING TO DOWNEAST, WHERE A CHANCE OF STORMS IS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE STEADIER RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, EXPECTING JUST
RAIN. THERE WAS SOME WET SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH
WITH NO ACCUMULATION, BUT SINCE THEN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
APPEARS TO HAVE GONE TO JUST RAIN.

RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT TENTATIVE ABOUT
THE LOW LEVELS CLEARING MUCH. WENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG, AS WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN, IF THERE
IS ANY CLEARING, BELIEVE THIS WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CAPTURING THE SURFACE
LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW
A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THEIR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH PROBABLY MORE
AREAS LEANING ON THE IFR SIDE MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. ALSO MORE OF
A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR DOWNEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE A FEW STORMS DOWNEAST TODAY AS WELL. WINDY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR, BUT THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS
ALSO QUITE HIGH, RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET THIS MORNING, STEADILY
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR
SEAS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 0.75
TO 1.50 INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM, THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES AND LITTLE OR NO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST RIVERS HAVE FLUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE ICE OUT OF THE STATE, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
VERY LOCALIZED ICE JAMS LURKING. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTTOM LINE IS SOAKING RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCH UP NORTH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES
DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE.
DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN FOR ADDED FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM FOR MORE.

VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY. SO FAR, AS OF 3 AM, RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.10 INCH IN NORTHERN MAINE AND 0.30 TO 0.50
INCH DOWNEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCH. MORE ON THE WAY
TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
VERMONT TO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME, BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER
TO BRING SOME LIGHTNING TO DOWNEAST, WHERE A CHANCE OF STORMS IS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE STEADIER RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, EXPECTING JUST
RAIN. THERE WAS SOME WET SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH
WITH NO ACCUMULATION, BUT SINCE THEN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
APPEARS TO HAVE GONE TO JUST RAIN.

RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT TENTATIVE ABOUT
THE LOW LEVELS CLEARING MUCH. WENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG, AS WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN, IF THERE
IS ANY CLEARING, BELIEVE THIS WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CAPTURING THE SURFACE
LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW
A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THEIR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH PROBABLY MORE
AREAS LEANING ON THE IFR SIDE MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. ALSO MORE OF
A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR DOWNEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE A FEW STORMS DOWNEAST TODAY AS WELL. WINDY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR, BUT THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS
ALSO QUITE HIGH, RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET THIS MORNING, STEADILY
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR
SEAS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 0.75
TO 1.50 INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM, THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES AND LITTLE OR NO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST RIVERS HAVE FLUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE ICE OUT OF THE STATE, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
VERY LOCALIZED ICE JAMS LURKING. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING
DATA ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST...
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE
AND COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER
N AND E...RNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR
THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH
OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT
MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD
2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG
ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING
DATA ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST...
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE
AND COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER
N AND E...RNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR
THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH
OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT
MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD
2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG
ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 200354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS WHICH ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS WHICH ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 200204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 192223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191326
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
926 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0925 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES UNTIL
THIS MORNING AS AN ICE JAM CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RIVER
LEVELS ARE VERY SLOW RISING ONCE AGAIN. A SMALL JAM REMAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING
CLOSED.

THE ST JOHN RIVER IS LIKELY STILL JAMMED UP AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING, HOWEVER THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES UNTIL
THIS MORNING AS AN ICE JAM CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RIVER
LEVELS ARE VERY SLOW RISING ONCE AGAIN. A SMALL JAM REMAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING
CLOSED.

THE ST JOHN RIVER IS LIKELY STILL JAMMED UP AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING, HOWEVER THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES UNTIL
THIS MORNING AS AN ICE JAM CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RIVER
LEVELS ARE VERY SLOW RISING ONCE AGAIN. A SMALL JAM REMAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING
CLOSED.

THE ST JOHN RIVER IS LIKELY STILL JAMMED UP AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING, HOWEVER THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES UNTIL
THIS MORNING AS AN ICE JAM CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RIVER
LEVELS ARE VERY SLOW RISING ONCE AGAIN. A SMALL JAM REMAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING
CLOSED.

THE ST JOHN RIVER IS LIKELY STILL JAMMED UP AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING, HOWEVER THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190410
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED POPS AS LITTLE PCPN RMNS OVR CWA. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
GNRLY CLDS ACRS NRN ZONES THO STILL MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE/FLURRY
SNEAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. EXPECT DRY WX AFT 06Z TONIGHT
UNTIL THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT MON AFTN IN WIDESPREAD SOAKING, MAINLY
RAIN EVENT, FOR NEW ENGLAND. MASSAGED HRLY T/TD VALUES FOR THE
OVRNGT BUT NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BLO...

930 PM UPDATE...THE HYDROLOGY SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF CAPE
COD WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
OVERNIGHT. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO FIND MORE THAN
A FEW SPOTS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POPS/QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
930 PM UPDATE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT
WASHBURN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. LATEST
RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATE THE RIVER IS STARTING TO FALL AFTER A
BRIEF RISE EARLIER THIS EVENING. GARDNER CREEK ROAD WAS COVERED
WITH 1-2 FEET OF WATER...BUT LIKELY IS NOW RECEDING. WE ARE
SEEING SIGNS OF ICE MOVEMENT AT MASARDIS, AS WELL. THIS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF THE ICE FLUSHES FROM MASARDIS AND MEETS UP WITH THE
WASHBURN JAM. ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE IS STILL A SMALL
JAM NEAR CROUSEVILLE, ANOTHER ABOUT 2 MILES UPSTREAM OF THE
CARIBOU DAM, AND ONE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD. THE ONLY ONE OF
THESE CAUSING KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES IS FORT FAIRFIELD, WHERE
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINS CLOSED.

ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ALLAGASH
AND HAS BECOME JAMMED AT ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE SAINT JOHN. WATER
HAS STARTED BACKING UP BEHIND THIS JAM BUT IS NOT YET THREATENING
ANY STRUCTURES OR ROADS.

A JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH LINE THAT HAS
FLOODED A PORTION OF ROUTE 161...WHICH IS NOW CLOSED. MUCH LIKE
THE AROOSTOOK, THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE ALLAGASH JAM WILL FLUSH
OUT AND MEET UP WITH THE ST FRANCIS ONE.

RIVER FLOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF SLOWS AND
STOPS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND
SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE
AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS. THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST
FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MVMNT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER
GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190410
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED POPS AS LITTLE PCPN RMNS OVR CWA. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
GNRLY CLDS ACRS NRN ZONES THO STILL MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE/FLURRY
SNEAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. EXPECT DRY WX AFT 06Z TONIGHT
UNTIL THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT MON AFTN IN WIDESPREAD SOAKING, MAINLY
RAIN EVENT, FOR NEW ENGLAND. MASSAGED HRLY T/TD VALUES FOR THE
OVRNGT BUT NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BLO...

930 PM UPDATE...THE HYDROLOGY SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF CAPE
COD WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
OVERNIGHT. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO FIND MORE THAN
A FEW SPOTS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POPS/QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
930 PM UPDATE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT
WASHBURN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. LATEST
RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATE THE RIVER IS STARTING TO FALL AFTER A
BRIEF RISE EARLIER THIS EVENING. GARDNER CREEK ROAD WAS COVERED
WITH 1-2 FEET OF WATER...BUT LIKELY IS NOW RECEDING. WE ARE
SEEING SIGNS OF ICE MOVEMENT AT MASARDIS, AS WELL. THIS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF THE ICE FLUSHES FROM MASARDIS AND MEETS UP WITH THE
WASHBURN JAM. ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE IS STILL A SMALL
JAM NEAR CROUSEVILLE, ANOTHER ABOUT 2 MILES UPSTREAM OF THE
CARIBOU DAM, AND ONE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD. THE ONLY ONE OF
THESE CAUSING KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES IS FORT FAIRFIELD, WHERE
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINS CLOSED.

ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ALLAGASH
AND HAS BECOME JAMMED AT ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE SAINT JOHN. WATER
HAS STARTED BACKING UP BEHIND THIS JAM BUT IS NOT YET THREATENING
ANY STRUCTURES OR ROADS.

A JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH LINE THAT HAS
FLOODED A PORTION OF ROUTE 161...WHICH IS NOW CLOSED. MUCH LIKE
THE AROOSTOOK, THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE ALLAGASH JAM WILL FLUSH
OUT AND MEET UP WITH THE ST FRANCIS ONE.

RIVER FLOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF SLOWS AND
STOPS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND
SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE
AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS. THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST
FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MVMNT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER
GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190410
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED POPS AS LITTLE PCPN RMNS OVR CWA. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
GNRLY CLDS ACRS NRN ZONES THO STILL MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE/FLURRY
SNEAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. EXPECT DRY WX AFT 06Z TONIGHT
UNTIL THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT MON AFTN IN WIDESPREAD SOAKING, MAINLY
RAIN EVENT, FOR NEW ENGLAND. MASSAGED HRLY T/TD VALUES FOR THE
OVRNGT BUT NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BLO...

930 PM UPDATE...THE HYDROLOGY SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF CAPE
COD WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
OVERNIGHT. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO FIND MORE THAN
A FEW SPOTS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POPS/QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
930 PM UPDATE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT
WASHBURN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. LATEST
RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATE THE RIVER IS STARTING TO FALL AFTER A
BRIEF RISE EARLIER THIS EVENING. GARDNER CREEK ROAD WAS COVERED
WITH 1-2 FEET OF WATER...BUT LIKELY IS NOW RECEDING. WE ARE
SEEING SIGNS OF ICE MOVEMENT AT MASARDIS, AS WELL. THIS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF THE ICE FLUSHES FROM MASARDIS AND MEETS UP WITH THE
WASHBURN JAM. ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE IS STILL A SMALL
JAM NEAR CROUSEVILLE, ANOTHER ABOUT 2 MILES UPSTREAM OF THE
CARIBOU DAM, AND ONE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD. THE ONLY ONE OF
THESE CAUSING KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES IS FORT FAIRFIELD, WHERE
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINS CLOSED.

ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ALLAGASH
AND HAS BECOME JAMMED AT ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE SAINT JOHN. WATER
HAS STARTED BACKING UP BEHIND THIS JAM BUT IS NOT YET THREATENING
ANY STRUCTURES OR ROADS.

A JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH LINE THAT HAS
FLOODED A PORTION OF ROUTE 161...WHICH IS NOW CLOSED. MUCH LIKE
THE AROOSTOOK, THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE ALLAGASH JAM WILL FLUSH
OUT AND MEET UP WITH THE ST FRANCIS ONE.

RIVER FLOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF SLOWS AND
STOPS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND
SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE
AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS. THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST
FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MVMNT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER
GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190130
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE HYDROLOGY SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF CAPE
COD WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
OVERNIGHT. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO FIND MORE THAN
A FEW SPOTS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POPS/QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
930 PM UPDATE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT
WASHBURN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. LATEST
RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATE THE RIVER IS STARTING TO FALL AFTER A
BRIEF RISE EARLIER THIS EVENING. GARDNER CREEK ROAD WAS COVERED
WITH 1-2 FEET OF WATER...BUT LIKELY IS NOW RECEEDING. WE ARE
SEEING SIGNS OF ICE MOVEMENT AT MASARDIS, AS WELL. THIS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF THE ICE FLUSHES FROM MASARDIS AND MEETS UP WITH THE
WASHBURN JAM. ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE IS STILL A SMALL
JAM NEAR CROUSEVILLE, ANOTHER ABOUT 2 MILES UPSTREAM OF THE
CARIBOU DAM, AND ONE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD. THE ONLY ONE OF
THESE CAUSING KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES IS FORT FAIRFIELD, WHERE
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINS CLOSED.

ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ALLAGASH
AND HAS BECOME JAMMED AT ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE SAINT JOHN. WATER
HAS STARTED BACKING UP BEHIND THIS JAM BUT IS NOT YET THREATENING
ANY STRUCTURES OR ROADS.

A JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH LINE THAT HAS
FLOODED A PORTION OF ROUTE 161...WHICH IS NOW CLOSED. MUCH LIKE
THE AROOSTOOK, THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE ALLAGASH JAM WILL FLUSH
OUT AND MEET UP WITH THE ST FRANCIS ONE.

RIVER FLOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF SLOWS AND
STOPS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND
SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE
AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS. THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST
FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER
GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190130
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE HYDROLOGY SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF CAPE
COD WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
OVERNIGHT. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO FIND MORE THAN
A FEW SPOTS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POPS/QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
930 PM UPDATE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT
WASHBURN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. LATEST
RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATE THE RIVER IS STARTING TO FALL AFTER A
BRIEF RISE EARLIER THIS EVENING. GARDNER CREEK ROAD WAS COVERED
WITH 1-2 FEET OF WATER...BUT LIKELY IS NOW RECEEDING. WE ARE
SEEING SIGNS OF ICE MOVEMENT AT MASARDIS, AS WELL. THIS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF THE ICE FLUSHES FROM MASARDIS AND MEETS UP WITH THE
WASHBURN JAM. ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE IS STILL A SMALL
JAM NEAR CROUSEVILLE, ANOTHER ABOUT 2 MILES UPSTREAM OF THE
CARIBOU DAM, AND ONE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD. THE ONLY ONE OF
THESE CAUSING KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES IS FORT FAIRFIELD, WHERE
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINS CLOSED.

ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ALLAGASH
AND HAS BECOME JAMMED AT ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE SAINT JOHN. WATER
HAS STARTED BACKING UP BEHIND THIS JAM BUT IS NOT YET THREATENING
ANY STRUCTURES OR ROADS.

A JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH LINE THAT HAS
FLOODED A PORTION OF ROUTE 161...WHICH IS NOW CLOSED. MUCH LIKE
THE AROOSTOOK, THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE ALLAGASH JAM WILL FLUSH
OUT AND MEET UP WITH THE ST FRANCIS ONE.

RIVER FLOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF SLOWS AND
STOPS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND
SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE
AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS. THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST
FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER
GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 182352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
752 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
745 PM UPDATE...HYDROLOGY SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE LATEST
ICE JAM INFORMATION. SEE BELOW.

612 PM UPDATE...LOW PRES CROSSING THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK INTO SW
MAINE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA FROM AROUND GREENVILLE AND
INTO PARTS OF DOWNEAST MAINE FROM SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND
INTO HANCOCK COUNTY. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO THE POPS/QPF THIS
EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE COULD BE SEEING SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
745 PM UPDATE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT
WASHBURN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING.
LATEST RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATE THE RIVER HAS ACTUALLY GONE UP
OVER THE PAST HOUR, AND THIS HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY SPOTTERS THAT
REPORT GARDNER CREEK ROAD IS ONCE AGAIN COVERED WITH 1-2 FEET OF
WATER. WE ARE SEEING SIGNS OF ICE MOVEMENT AT MASARDIS, AS WELL.
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE ICE FLUSHES FROM MASARDIS AND
MEETS UP WITH THE WASHBURN JAM. ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE
IS STILL A SMALL JAM NEAR CROUSEVILLE, ANOTHER ABOUT 2 MILES
UPSTREAM OF THE CARIBOU DAM, AND ONE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD.
THE ONLY ONE OF THESE CAUSING KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES IS FORT
FAIRFIELD, WHERE RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINS CLOSED.

ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ALLAGASH
AND HAS BECOME JAMMED AT ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE SAINT JOHN. WATER
HAS STARTED BACKING UP BEHIND THIS JAM BUT IS NOT YET THREATENING
ANY STRUCTURES OR ROADS. HOWEVER, A JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE
ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH LINE THAT IS CAUSING WATER TO BEGIN TO COVER
PORTIONS OF ROUTE 161. MUCH LIKE THE AROOSTOOK, THERE ARE CONCERNS
THAT THE ALLAGASH JAM WILL FLUSH OUT AND MEET UP WITH THE ST
FRANCIS ONE.

RIVER FLOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECLINE LATER THIS EVENING
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF SLOWS AND
STOPS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND
SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE
AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS. THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST
FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER
GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT
AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH
AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 182352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
752 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
745 PM UPDATE...HYDROLOGY SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE LATEST
ICE JAM INFORMATION. SEE BELOW.

612 PM UPDATE...LOW PRES CROSSING THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK INTO SW
MAINE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA FROM AROUND GREENVILLE AND
INTO PARTS OF DOWNEAST MAINE FROM SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND
INTO HANCOCK COUNTY. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO THE POPS/QPF THIS
EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE COULD BE SEEING SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
745 PM UPDATE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT
WASHBURN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING.
LATEST RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATE THE RIVER HAS ACTUALLY GONE UP
OVER THE PAST HOUR, AND THIS HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY SPOTTERS THAT
REPORT GARDNER CREEK ROAD IS ONCE AGAIN COVERED WITH 1-2 FEET OF
WATER. WE ARE SEEING SIGNS OF ICE MOVEMENT AT MASARDIS, AS WELL.
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE ICE FLUSHES FROM MASARDIS AND
MEETS UP WITH THE WASHBURN JAM. ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE
IS STILL A SMALL JAM NEAR CROUSEVILLE, ANOTHER ABOUT 2 MILES
UPSTREAM OF THE CARIBOU DAM, AND ONE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD.
THE ONLY ONE OF THESE CAUSING KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES IS FORT
FAIRFIELD, WHERE RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINS CLOSED.

ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ALLAGASH
AND HAS BECOME JAMMED AT ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE SAINT JOHN. WATER
HAS STARTED BACKING UP BEHIND THIS JAM BUT IS NOT YET THREATENING
ANY STRUCTURES OR ROADS. HOWEVER, A JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE
ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH LINE THAT IS CAUSING WATER TO BEGIN TO COVER
PORTIONS OF ROUTE 161. MUCH LIKE THE AROOSTOOK, THERE ARE CONCERNS
THAT THE ALLAGASH JAM WILL FLUSH OUT AND MEET UP WITH THE ST
FRANCIS ONE.

RIVER FLOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECLINE LATER THIS EVENING
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF SLOWS AND
STOPS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PLEASE STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND
SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE
AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS. THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST
FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER
GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT
AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH
AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 182212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
612 PM UPDATE...LOW PRES CROSSING THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK INTO SW
MAINE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA FROM AROUND GREENVILLE AND
INTO PARTS OF DOWNEAST MAINE FROM SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND
INTO HANCOCK COUNTY. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO THE POPS/QPF THIS
EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE COULD BE SEEING SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE
MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS
ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS.
THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES
OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT
AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH
AND PERHAPS EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 182043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
443 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE COULD BE SEEING SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE
MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS
ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS.
THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES
OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 182043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
443 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE COULD BE SEEING SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE
MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS
ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS.
THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES
OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 182043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
443 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE COULD BE SEEING SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE
MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS
ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS.
THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES
OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 182043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
443 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY REFORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE COULD BE SEEING SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWED SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME
AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME WEAK LLVL WAA W/COLD POOL IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE W/AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW BACK THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL MAINE. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG W/DECENT MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN INITIALLY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(GREENVILLE REGION) DOWN INTO THE BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH
REGION. AS THE TROF PIVOTS ENE LATER TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
DECIDED TO PUSH FOR 80% POPS ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
TONIGHT AND W/EVAPORATIVE COOLING, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOWED SB CAPE OF
50-80 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO ALLOW
FOR A 2-3 HRS PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
DECIDED OF QPF AMOUNTS OF AREAL WIDE OF 0.10-0.30" W/ONCE AGAIN
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINE AND
DOWNEAST. CARRIED UP TO ONE INCH OF WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY THE NAO
TELECONNECTION INDEX BECOMING MUCH MORE NEGATIVE AND THE PNA INDEX
BECOMING SOMEWHAT POSITIVE. BOTH OF THESE HEMISPHERIC CENTERS OF
ACTION ACTING IN CONCERT FAVOR SHARP UPPER TROFFING AND UPPER LOWS
STAGNATING FROM THE MID ATLC STATES NWRD INTO ERN CAN...ALONG WITH
IT A PROTRACTED PD WHERE LENGTHY PDS OF RNFL ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
BROKEN BY BRIEF DRY SPELLS BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE S/WVS ROTATING ARND
A BROAD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN...IS NOT
UN-TYPICAL FOR THIS PTN OF THE U.S. IN MID TO LATE SPRING...
LASTING A WEEK OR MORE WHEN IT OCCURS...SOMETIMES OCCURRING 2 TO 3
TIMES PRIOR TO SUMMER.

AT LEAST MON WILL BEGIN DRY...THEN WITH THE INITIAL HI CLDS
ARRIVING IN THE MORN...THEN CLDS SHOULD THICKEN DURG THE AFTN HRS
WITH RNFL ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALF AOA 925 MB OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WHEN EVAPORATIONAL...
DYNAMIC AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ARRIVE LATER MON NGT...PRECIP COULD
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO SN SPCLY ACROSS HIER TRRN WHERE THERE
COULD BE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNFL BY MON MORN. ANY MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD CHG BACK TO ALL RN OVR MOST NRN LCTNS BY LATE TUE MORN AS
SFC TO BL TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS. RNFL THRU
TUE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH FAR N TO 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...ALL JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SPCLY DURG THE 6 HR PDS WHEN WE XPCT THE MOST
QPF...MSLY TUE MORN AND AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFT NEAR AVG DAY TM HI TEMPS MON AND LOW TEMPS
OVRNGT...HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE DECIDELY BLO AVG...HELD DOWN BY
RNFL...CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL RNFL TUE EVE AS A
SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVES E FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES. AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND
WED MORN...ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ENE FROM AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW
OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH MSLY LGT QPF
WED AFTN AND EVE AS IT CROSSES THE FA. AFT ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
RNFL LATE WED NGT...A MORE PRONOUNCED S/WV MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG TOWARD NEW ENG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE
SIG ROUND OF RNFL FOR THE REGION THU INTO THU EVE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHWRS THEN CONTG LATE THU NGT THRU SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENG. CANNOT RULE OUT RNFL BEING
MIXED WITH OR EVEN CHGNG TO WET SN AT TMS LATE THU NGT AND SPCLY
LATE FRI NGT AS COLDER AIR ALF WITH THE UPPER LOW WORKS EWRD INTO
THE FA FROM SW QB PROV. TEMPS WITH THIS REGIME WILL CONT BLO AVG
BY DAY AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO AVG AT NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. VFR RIGHT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR MON...THEN MVFR MON
NGT THRU THU IN LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...WITH PDS OF IFR ATTMS IN
HEAVIER RNFL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A GALE WATCH APPEARS TO BE LIKELY FOR LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH THE ESE GRAD WIND AHEAD OF BOTH THE PRIMARY
LOW OVR ERN CAN AND THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PTNS OF OUR COAST WITH THE LATE MON NGT
HI TIDAL CYCLE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WVS. BOTH EVENTS ARE
STILL OUT IN DAY 3...TO FAR OUT IN THE FCST FOR HDLN STATEMENTS
ATTM...BUT WE WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HWO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCA RANGE
ON WED AND LIKELY CONT IN THE SCA RANGE THRU THU WHEN THE LAST SIG
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SE SFC PRES GRAD MOVES E INTO THE CAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS FOR ICE
MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, WE KNOW OF A COUPLE OF JAMS
ON THE ST JOHN, ONE NEAR GRAND ISLE AND THE OTHER NEAR ST FRANCIS.
THE FIRST OF THESE JAMS WAS NOT CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES
OUTSIDE OF SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE ST FRANCIS JAM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF MOVMENT PER THE ALLAGASH RIVER GAGE, SO WE WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA.

ON THE AROOSTOOK, AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT
FAIRFIELD. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IS STILL FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. THIS MORNING, THERE HAD ALSO BEEN TWO JAMS UPSTREAM, A
LARGE ONE THAT STRETCHED 3 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE WASHBURN TRAIN
TRESTLE, AND A SMALLER ONE IN CROUSEVILLE. AN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A LOT OF ICE MOVING THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CROUSEVILLE ICE HAS
RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE WASHBURN RIVER GAGE IS STILL SHOWING A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FLOW, SO IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE ICE IN
CROUSEVILLE IS STILL THERE, AS IS THE LARGE JAM ABOVE THE GAGE.
PARSONS ROAD IN WASHBURN REMAINS FLOODED AT THIS TIME. THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WASHBURN GAGE WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SLOWLY
DECREASING RIVER FLOWS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS LESSENED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TODAY.
HOWEVER, PERSONS ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES NEED TO STAY VIGILANT AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
RIVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181626
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE IN NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE THIS EVENING. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. MORE ON
THIS LATER.

LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS ATTM ARE HOLDING THEIR
OWN. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS STATED ABOVE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN W/JAMS IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS
HAVE ACTUALLY RECEDED SOME SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.

THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN REMAINS WITH SOME
FLOODING ON THE GARDNER CREEK ROAD.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. RIVERSIDE AVENUE WAS STILL CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRAND
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING. ANOTHER JAM WAS NEAR THE ST.
FRANCIS ALLAGASH TOWN LINE W/SOME OVERWASH ALONG ROUTE 161.

ICE MOVEMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING THREAT HAS LESSENED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181626
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE IN NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE THIS EVENING. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. MORE ON
THIS LATER.

LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS ATTM ARE HOLDING THEIR
OWN. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS STATED ABOVE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN W/JAMS IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS
HAVE ACTUALLY RECEDED SOME SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.

THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN REMAINS WITH SOME
FLOODING ON THE GARDNER CREEK ROAD.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. RIVERSIDE AVENUE WAS STILL CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRAND
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING. ANOTHER JAM WAS NEAR THE ST.
FRANCIS ALLAGASH TOWN LINE W/SOME OVERWASH ALONG ROUTE 161.

ICE MOVEMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING THREAT HAS LESSENED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181626
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE IN NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE THIS EVENING. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. MORE ON
THIS LATER.

LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS ATTM ARE HOLDING THEIR
OWN. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS STATED ABOVE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN W/JAMS IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS
HAVE ACTUALLY RECEDED SOME SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.

THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN REMAINS WITH SOME
FLOODING ON THE GARDNER CREEK ROAD.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. RIVERSIDE AVENUE WAS STILL CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRAND
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING. ANOTHER JAM WAS NEAR THE ST.
FRANCIS ALLAGASH TOWN LINE W/SOME OVERWASH ALONG ROUTE 161.

ICE MOVEMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING THREAT HAS LESSENED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181626
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE IN NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE THIS EVENING. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. MORE ON
THIS LATER.

LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS ATTM ARE HOLDING THEIR
OWN. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS STATED ABOVE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN W/JAMS IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS
HAVE ACTUALLY RECEDED SOME SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.

THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN REMAINS WITH SOME
FLOODING ON THE GARDNER CREEK ROAD.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. RIVERSIDE AVENUE WAS STILL CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRAND
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING. ANOTHER JAM WAS NEAR THE ST.
FRANCIS ALLAGASH TOWN LINE W/SOME OVERWASH ALONG ROUTE 161.

ICE MOVEMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING THREAT HAS LESSENED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181441
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1041 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO RAISE AFTERNOON MAXES UP A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON HOW THINGS WERE TAKING SHAPE AS OF THE 10 AM OBS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CONTINUES TO
CAUSE FLOODING. SOME ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF WASHBURN REMAIN
CLOSED OR OR HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM, BUT REMAIN OPEN W/ONE LANE.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AVE HAD HIGH WATER
ACROSS IT.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRADN
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING UP TOWARD THE ALLAGASH-ST. FRANCIS
TOWN LINE.

ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181441
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1041 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO RAISE AFTERNOON MAXES UP A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON HOW THINGS WERE TAKING SHAPE AS OF THE 10 AM OBS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CONTINUES TO
CAUSE FLOODING. SOME ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF WASHBURN REMAIN
CLOSED OR OR HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM, BUT REMAIN OPEN W/ONE LANE.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AVE HAD HIGH WATER
ACROSS IT.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRADN
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING UP TOWARD THE ALLAGASH-ST. FRANCIS
TOWN LINE.

ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181441
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1041 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO RAISE AFTERNOON MAXES UP A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON HOW THINGS WERE TAKING SHAPE AS OF THE 10 AM OBS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CONTINUES TO
CAUSE FLOODING. SOME ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF WASHBURN REMAIN
CLOSED OR OR HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM, BUT REMAIN OPEN W/ONE LANE.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AVE HAD HIGH WATER
ACROSS IT.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRADN
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING UP TOWARD THE ALLAGASH-ST. FRANCIS
TOWN LINE.

ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181441
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1041 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO RAISE AFTERNOON MAXES UP A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON HOW THINGS WERE TAKING SHAPE AS OF THE 10 AM OBS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CONTINUES TO
CAUSE FLOODING. SOME ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF WASHBURN REMAIN
CLOSED OR OR HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM, BUT REMAIN OPEN W/ONE LANE.

THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AVE HAD HIGH WATER
ACROSS IT.

ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRADN
ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING UP TOWARD THE ALLAGASH-ST. FRANCIS
TOWN LINE.

ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181044
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
644 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO ONGOING FCST AT THIS TIME AS PCPN SHUD NOT
EFFECT CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. STILL EXPECTING NORTH TO
STAY DRY THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO BRING
HRLY T/TD VALUES CLOSER TO REALITY AS NORTH WOODS DROPPED MORE
THAN EXPECTED AS STRATUS NEVER MADE IT IN FM THE NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD TO
OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A KATAHDIN-
DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLDS OVR NRN
ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CAUSED FLOODING
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROADS IN THE AREA TO BE CLOSED. AN AREAL
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WASHBURN TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE ICE JAM APPEARS TO HAVE RELEASED BUT RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ICE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE
ON THE AROOSTOOK AND ST JOHN RIVERS ALONG WITH TRIBUTARIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING AND SLOW
SNOWMELT INTO MID MORNING. ICE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. THESE JAMS
WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AND WILL LEAD TO
FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 181044
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
644 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO ONGOING FCST AT THIS TIME AS PCPN SHUD NOT
EFFECT CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. STILL EXPECTING NORTH TO
STAY DRY THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO BRING
HRLY T/TD VALUES CLOSER TO REALITY AS NORTH WOODS DROPPED MORE
THAN EXPECTED AS STRATUS NEVER MADE IT IN FM THE NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD TO
OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A KATAHDIN-
DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLDS OVR NRN
ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR
CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY
EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CAUSED FLOODING
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROADS IN THE AREA TO BE CLOSED. AN AREAL
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WASHBURN TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE ICE JAM APPEARS TO HAVE RELEASED BUT RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ICE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE
ON THE AROOSTOOK AND ST JOHN RIVERS ALONG WITH TRIBUTARIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING AND SLOW
SNOWMELT INTO MID MORNING. ICE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. THESE JAMS
WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AND WILL LEAD TO
FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...




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