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000
FXUS61 KCAR 010952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS MADE WERE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE
MORN BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM AND IMPLIED MINOR CHGS TO PRIOR
FCST LOWS. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLR TO MCLR WITH A LIGHT NW
BREEZE THIS MORN AS PER THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SFC HI PRES FROM QB WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MIDDAY SPCLY OVR NRN AND
ERN PTNS OF THE FA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE BEING A
LITTLE COOLER THEN YSTDY...HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE 3 TO 6 DEG F ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

AS THE HI MOVES SE OF THE FA TNGT...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT...BRINGING INCREASING HUMIDITY BY LATE
NGT ALONG WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. WINDS WHICH INITIALLY BE LGT AND
VRBL THIS EVE...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD/WARM FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR
AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL. THIS WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS
TIME BUT WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITHOUT ANY PRECIP. THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL GENERATE A COOL AND CRISP NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST WILL DROP TOWARDS 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH WEAKENS MONDAY
AND MAY ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER ON LABOR
DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH WITH REGARD TO
THESE SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LABOR DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
SHALLOW VALLEY FOG COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE ARND 2 FT OVR THE
OUTER MZS AND ARND 1 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WW3 WV GUIDANCE
WAS SCALED BACK TO 75 PERCENT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT
ALG THE NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME 20 KT GUSTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS MADE WERE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE
MORN BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM AND IMPLIED MINOR CHGS TO PRIOR
FCST LOWS. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLR TO MCLR WITH A LIGHT NW
BREEZE THIS MORN AS PER THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SFC HI PRES FROM QB WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MIDDAY SPCLY OVR NRN AND
ERN PTNS OF THE FA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE BEING A
LITTLE COOLER THEN YSTDY...HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE 3 TO 6 DEG F ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

AS THE HI MOVES SE OF THE FA TNGT...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT...BRINGING INCREASING HUMIDITY BY LATE
NGT ALONG WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. WINDS WHICH INITIALLY BE LGT AND
VRBL THIS EVE...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD/WARM FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR
AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL. THIS WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS
TIME BUT WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITHOUT ANY PRECIP. THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL GENERATE A COOL AND CRISP NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST WILL DROP TOWARDS 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH WEAKENS MONDAY
AND MAY ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER ON LABOR
DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH WITH REGARD TO
THESE SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LABOR DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
SHALLOW VALLEY FOG COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE ARND 2 FT OVR THE
OUTER MZS AND ARND 1 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WW3 WV GUIDANCE
WAS SCALED BACK TO 75 PERCENT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT
ALG THE NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME 20 KT GUSTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS MADE WERE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE
MORN BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM AND IMPLIED MINOR CHGS TO PRIOR
FCST LOWS. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLR TO MCLR WITH A LIGHT NW
BREEZE THIS MORN AS PER THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SFC HI PRES FROM QB WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MIDDAY SPCLY OVR NRN AND
ERN PTNS OF THE FA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE BEING A
LITTLE COOLER THEN YSTDY...HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE 3 TO 6 DEG F ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

AS THE HI MOVES SE OF THE FA TNGT...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT...BRINGING INCREASING HUMIDITY BY LATE
NGT ALONG WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. WINDS WHICH INITIALLY BE LGT AND
VRBL THIS EVE...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD/WARM FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR
AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL. THIS WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS
TIME BUT WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITHOUT ANY PRECIP. THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL GENERATE A COOL AND CRISP NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST WILL DROP TOWARDS 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH WEAKENS MONDAY
AND MAY ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER ON LABOR
DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH WITH REGARD TO
THESE SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LABOR DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
SHALLOW VALLEY FOG COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE ARND 2 FT OVR THE
OUTER MZS AND ARND 1 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WW3 WV GUIDANCE
WAS SCALED BACK TO 75 PERCENT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT
ALG THE NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME 20 KT GUSTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010750
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HI PRES FROM QB WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MIDDAY SPCLY OVR NRN AND ERN PTNS
OF THE FA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE BEING A LITTLE COOLER
THEN YSTDY...HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEG F
ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

AS THE HI MOVES SE OF THE FA TNGT...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT...BRINGING INCREASING HUMIDITY BY LATE
NGT ALONG WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. WINDS WHICH INITIALLY BE LGT AND
VRBL THIS EVE...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD/WARM FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR
AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL. THIS WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS
TIME BUT WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITHOUT ANY PRECIP. THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL GENERATE A COOL AND CRISP NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST WILL DROP TOWARDS 50F.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH WEAKENS MONDAY
AND MAY ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER ON LABOR
DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH WITH REGARD TO
THESE SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LABOR DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
SHALLOW VALLEY FOG COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE ARND 2 FT OVR THE
OUTER MZS AND ARND 1 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WW3 WV GUIDANCE
WAS SCALED BACK TO 75 PERCENT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT
ALG THE NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME 20 KT GUSTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010750
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HI PRES FROM QB WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MIDDAY SPCLY OVR NRN AND ERN PTNS
OF THE FA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE BEING A LITTLE COOLER
THEN YSTDY...HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEG F
ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

AS THE HI MOVES SE OF THE FA TNGT...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT...BRINGING INCREASING HUMIDITY BY LATE
NGT ALONG WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. WINDS WHICH INITIALLY BE LGT AND
VRBL THIS EVE...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD/WARM FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR
AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL. THIS WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS
TIME BUT WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITHOUT ANY PRECIP. THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL GENERATE A COOL AND CRISP NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST WILL DROP TOWARDS 50F.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH WEAKENS MONDAY
AND MAY ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER ON LABOR
DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH WITH REGARD TO
THESE SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LABOR DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
SHALLOW VALLEY FOG COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE ARND 2 FT OVR THE
OUTER MZS AND ARND 1 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WW3 WV GUIDANCE
WAS SCALED BACK TO 75 PERCENT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT
ALG THE NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME 20 KT GUSTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010750
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HI PRES FROM QB WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MIDDAY SPCLY OVR NRN AND ERN PTNS
OF THE FA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE BEING A LITTLE COOLER
THEN YSTDY...HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEG F
ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

AS THE HI MOVES SE OF THE FA TNGT...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT...BRINGING INCREASING HUMIDITY BY LATE
NGT ALONG WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. WINDS WHICH INITIALLY BE LGT AND
VRBL THIS EVE...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD/WARM FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR
AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL. THIS WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS
TIME BUT WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITHOUT ANY PRECIP. THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL GENERATE A COOL AND CRISP NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST WILL DROP TOWARDS 50F.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH WEAKENS MONDAY
AND MAY ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER ON LABOR
DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH WITH REGARD TO
THESE SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LABOR DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
SHALLOW VALLEY FOG COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE ARND 2 FT OVR THE
OUTER MZS AND ARND 1 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WW3 WV GUIDANCE
WAS SCALED BACK TO 75 PERCENT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT
ALG THE NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME 20 KT GUSTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010501
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCORPORATE LATEST
SFC TEMPS AND DWPTS AND SKY CONDITION FROM MDNGT OBS/SAT IMAGERY
AND TO INTERPOLATE FOR NEW FCST HRLY VALUES INTO THE ERLY MORN
HRS.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES
DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010501
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCORPORATE LATEST
SFC TEMPS AND DWPTS AND SKY CONDITION FROM MDNGT OBS/SAT IMAGERY
AND TO INTERPOLATE FOR NEW FCST HRLY VALUES INTO THE ERLY MORN
HRS.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES
DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010501
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCORPORATE LATEST
SFC TEMPS AND DWPTS AND SKY CONDITION FROM MDNGT OBS/SAT IMAGERY
AND TO INTERPOLATE FOR NEW FCST HRLY VALUES INTO THE ERLY MORN
HRS.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES
DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010240
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: HRLY TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO MATCH UP W/THE
LATEST OBS. TEMPS WERE HOLDING UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE TO NW WIND AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WERE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
SET W/CLEARING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010240
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: HRLY TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO MATCH UP W/THE
LATEST OBS. TEMPS WERE HOLDING UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE TO NW WIND AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WERE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
SET W/CLEARING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010240
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: HRLY TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO MATCH UP W/THE
LATEST OBS. TEMPS WERE HOLDING UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE TO NW WIND AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WERE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
SET W/CLEARING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 010240
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: HRLY TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO MATCH UP W/THE
LATEST OBS. TEMPS WERE HOLDING UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE TO NW WIND AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WERE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
SET W/CLEARING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 312245
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS W/SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. BAND OF CLOUDS IN QUEBEC DRIVING SE AND POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. INITIALIZED THE SKY GRIDS W/THE
SATELLITE AND THE 18Z NAM12 GUIDANCE AS IT WAS DOING QUITE WELL.
HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING READINGS DOWN FASTER PER THE
LATEST OBS REFLECTING A COOL DOWN. ADJUSTED LAV WAS DOING WELL
W/THIS SETUP AND INITIALIZED TEMPS & DEWPOINTS W/LAV GUIDANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 312245
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS W/SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. BAND OF CLOUDS IN QUEBEC DRIVING SE AND POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. INITIALIZED THE SKY GRIDS W/THE
SATELLITE AND THE 18Z NAM12 GUIDANCE AS IT WAS DOING QUITE WELL.
HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING READINGS DOWN FASTER PER THE
LATEST OBS REFLECTING A COOL DOWN. ADJUSTED LAV WAS DOING WELL
W/THIS SETUP AND INITIALIZED TEMPS & DEWPOINTS W/LAV GUIDANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 312027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
427 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWNEAST COAST EARLY TONIGHT WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 312027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
427 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWNEAST COAST EARLY TONIGHT WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE THIS WEEK
TO BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE WEEK,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNY SEASONABLE FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
TO CHANNEL SOME VERY WARM AIR IN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ON SATURDAY AND OVER 80 ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311620
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1220 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK
END DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES BY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 50S, WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311620
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1220 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK
END DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES BY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 50S, WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311620
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1220 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK
END DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES BY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 50S, WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311620
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1220 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK
END DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES BY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 50S, WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK
END DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES BY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 50S, WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING THEN WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE TO POPS AND SKY
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THESE CLOUDS, SO IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT, THEN EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE NORTH, CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY MOSTLY MOVED OUT ATTM, BUT
THEY`LL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR.
NOT SEEING MANY RETURNS ON CANADIAN/LOCAL RADAR THIS MORNING AND
NOTE THAT THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS FOR TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED UP POPS BY ABOUT 2 HOURS
OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
TODAY WHILE A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS QUEBEC INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO A RAPID END DURING THE AFTERNOON. SB CAPES
WILL BE MEAGER; MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING 200 J/KG OR
LESS. THE NAM`S THE USUAL HIGH OUTLIER WITH 400-700 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY
WARM AIR; HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 80S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGIER TODAY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE TO POPS AND SKY
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THESE CLOUDS, SO IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT, THEN EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE NORTH, CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY MOSTLY MOVED OUT ATTM, BUT
THEY`LL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR.
NOT SEEING MANY RETURNS ON CANADIAN/LOCAL RADAR THIS MORNING AND
NOTE THAT THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS FOR TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED UP POPS BY ABOUT 2 HOURS
OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
TODAY WHILE A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS QUEBEC INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO A RAPID END DURING THE AFTERNOON. SB CAPES
WILL BE MEAGER; MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING 200 J/KG OR
LESS. THE NAM`S THE USUAL HIGH OUTLIER WITH 400-700 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY
WARM AIR; HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 80S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGIER TODAY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE TO POPS AND SKY
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THESE CLOUDS, SO IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT, THEN EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE NORTH, CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY MOSTLY MOVED OUT ATTM, BUT
THEY`LL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR.
NOT SEEING MANY RETURNS ON CANADIAN/LOCAL RADAR THIS MORNING AND
NOTE THAT THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS FOR TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED UP POPS BY ABOUT 2 HOURS
OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
TODAY WHILE A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS QUEBEC INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO A RAPID END DURING THE AFTERNOON. SB CAPES
WILL BE MEAGER; MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING 200 J/KG OR
LESS. THE NAM`S THE USUAL HIGH OUTLIER WITH 400-700 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY
WARM AIR; HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 80S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGIER TODAY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE TO POPS AND SKY
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THESE CLOUDS, SO IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT, THEN EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE NORTH, CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY MOSTLY MOVED OUT ATTM, BUT
THEY`LL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR.
NOT SEEING MANY RETURNS ON CANADIAN/LOCAL RADAR THIS MORNING AND
NOTE THAT THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS FOR TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED UP POPS BY ABOUT 2 HOURS
OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
TODAY WHILE A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS QUEBEC INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO A RAPID END DURING THE AFTERNOON. SB CAPES
WILL BE MEAGER; MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING 200 J/KG OR
LESS. THE NAM`S THE USUAL HIGH OUTLIER WITH 400-700 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY
WARM AIR; HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 80S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGIER TODAY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310749
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
349 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY WHILE A FAST-
MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO A RAPID END DURING THE AFTERNOON. SB CAPES WILL BE MEAGER; MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING 200 J/KG OR LESS. THE NAM`S THE USUAL
HIGH OUTLIER WITH 400-700 J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY WARM AIR; HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID
80S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL FEEL A LITTLE MUGGIER TODAY TOO
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310749
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
349 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY WHILE A FAST-
MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO A RAPID END DURING THE AFTERNOON. SB CAPES WILL BE MEAGER; MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING 200 J/KG OR LESS. THE NAM`S THE USUAL
HIGH OUTLIER WITH 400-700 J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY WARM AIR; HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID
80S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL FEEL A LITTLE MUGGIER TODAY TOO
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310749
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
349 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY WHILE A FAST-
MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO A RAPID END DURING THE AFTERNOON. SB CAPES WILL BE MEAGER; MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING 200 J/KG OR LESS. THE NAM`S THE USUAL
HIGH OUTLIER WITH 400-700 J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY WARM AIR; HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID
80S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL FEEL A LITTLE MUGGIER TODAY TOO
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. RH IS ALREADY AT OR
NEAR 100 PERCENT IN SPOTS, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, FEEL LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOP AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
MAINE LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. RH IS ALREADY AT OR
NEAR 100 PERCENT IN SPOTS, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, FEEL LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOP AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
MAINE LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. RH IS ALREADY AT OR
NEAR 100 PERCENT IN SPOTS, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, FEEL LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOP AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
MAINE LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. RH IS ALREADY AT OR
NEAR 100 PERCENT IN SPOTS, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, FEEL LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOP AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
MAINE LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10PM UPDATE: DID BUMP TEMPS DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS; CHANGES WERE MOSTLY THROUGH 06Z, BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT IN SOME SPOTS - MAINLY THE NRN CWA. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
POPS THROUGH MONDAY, AS 00Z NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE
IDEA OF ANY RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z, THEN EXITING TO THE
EAST BY AROUND 21Z OR PERHAPS A BIT SOONER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10PM UPDATE: DID BUMP TEMPS DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS; CHANGES WERE MOSTLY THROUGH 06Z, BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT IN SOME SPOTS - MAINLY THE NRN CWA. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
POPS THROUGH MONDAY, AS 00Z NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE
IDEA OF ANY RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z, THEN EXITING TO THE
EAST BY AROUND 21Z OR PERHAPS A BIT SOONER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302340
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS OR POPS AT THIS TIME.
DID INCREASE CLOUDS DOWN SOUTH BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE, BUT
MOST OF THAT IS OVER COASTAL ZONES AND WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 7PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS WERE MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE 18Z
TAFS, AS THE SAME REASONING STILL HOLDS AND THINGS LOOK LARGELY ON
TRACK. DID TWEAK THE ONSET OF BKN CIGS AND VCSH FORWARD AN HOUR FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHOWED CIGS IMPROVING MON AFTERNOON. CAN`T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AS FRONT APPROACHES, BUT STAYED WITH
VFR FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302340
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS OR POPS AT THIS TIME.
DID INCREASE CLOUDS DOWN SOUTH BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE, BUT
MOST OF THAT IS OVER COASTAL ZONES AND WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 7PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS WERE MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE 18Z
TAFS, AS THE SAME REASONING STILL HOLDS AND THINGS LOOK LARGELY ON
TRACK. DID TWEAK THE ONSET OF BKN CIGS AND VCSH FORWARD AN HOUR FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHOWED CIGS IMPROVING MON AFTERNOON. CAN`T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AS FRONT APPROACHES, BUT STAYED WITH
VFR FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301621
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301621
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER TONIGHT...THEN
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD ALSO HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER TONIGHT...THEN
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD ALSO HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER TONIGHT...THEN
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD ALSO HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, BUT STILL BELIEVE THE MODEL
IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FOR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MINOR WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO
MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING
OUR AREA AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO
PRODUCE SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
VIRGA. BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, BUT STILL BELIEVE THE MODEL
IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FOR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MINOR WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO
MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING
OUR AREA AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO
PRODUCE SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
VIRGA. BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300755
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST... SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300755
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST... SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300755
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST... SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300755
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST... SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300749
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300748
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A WARM DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300748
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A WARM DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300748
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA
AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A WARM DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300444
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDING TO
CURRENT RADAR AND HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP
BRING PRECIP THROUGH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, AND THE
LATEST RADAR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. ALSO BROUGHT ISOLATED POPS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS THERE ARE SOME DECENT RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY
NOT HITTING THE GROUND, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS OF 02Z. NO CHANGE
TO REASONING SHOWING LOWERING CATEGORIES AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300444
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDING TO
CURRENT RADAR AND HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP
BRING PRECIP THROUGH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, AND THE
LATEST RADAR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. ALSO BROUGHT ISOLATED POPS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS THERE ARE SOME DECENT RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY
NOT HITTING THE GROUND, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS OF 02Z. NO CHANGE
TO REASONING SHOWING LOWERING CATEGORIES AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
10PM UPDATE: DIDN`T HAVE TO CHANGE TEMPS MUCH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DID TWEAK POPS UP A BIT THRU 06Z IN ZONES 5, 6, AND
10 BASED ON SOME SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE QUEBEC AREA TOWARD
THOSE ZONES AND NUDGING TOWARD GYX GRIDS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LET
THE FORECAST RIDE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS OF 02Z. NO CHANGE
TO REASONING SHOWING LOWERING CATEGORIES AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KREDENSOR
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
10PM UPDATE: DIDN`T HAVE TO CHANGE TEMPS MUCH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DID TWEAK POPS UP A BIT THRU 06Z IN ZONES 5, 6, AND
10 BASED ON SOME SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE QUEBEC AREA TOWARD
THOSE ZONES AND NUDGING TOWARD GYX GRIDS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LET
THE FORECAST RIDE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS OF 02Z. NO CHANGE
TO REASONING SHOWING LOWERING CATEGORIES AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KREDENSOR
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
10PM UPDATE: DIDN`T HAVE TO CHANGE TEMPS MUCH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DID TWEAK POPS UP A BIT THRU 06Z IN ZONES 5, 6, AND
10 BASED ON SOME SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE QUEBEC AREA TOWARD
THOSE ZONES AND NUDGING TOWARD GYX GRIDS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LET
THE FORECAST RIDE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS OF 02Z. NO CHANGE
TO REASONING SHOWING LOWERING CATEGORIES AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KREDENSOR
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300040
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT BASED ON 6/7PM OBS, BUT LOWS
WERE NOT ADJUSTED AS OF YET. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP
DROPS OVERNIGHT. DIDN`T TOUCH POPS, AS AREA OF SHOWERS PASSING
OTTAWA THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH THE TIMING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 7PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO INITIAL PERIOD OF SOME TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS, BUT OVERALL VFR PREVAIL TO START, WITH EXPECTED DROP TO MVFR
AND IFR OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN SITES AS PRECIP APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KREDENSOR
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300040
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT BASED ON 6/7PM OBS, BUT LOWS
WERE NOT ADJUSTED AS OF YET. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP
DROPS OVERNIGHT. DIDN`T TOUCH POPS, AS AREA OF SHOWERS PASSING
OTTAWA THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH THE TIMING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 7PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO INITIAL PERIOD OF SOME TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS, BUT OVERALL VFR PREVAIL TO START, WITH EXPECTED DROP TO MVFR
AND IFR OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN SITES AS PRECIP APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KREDENSOR
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 292002
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291801
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
201 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD THINNING
FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE CENTRAL AREAS
WERE SEEING A THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS HAS CUT
BACK TEMPS A BIT. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO COVER FOR THE THICKER CIRRUS
SHIELD. CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR
NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES
CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA AND BARELY  IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN
TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES
CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD
OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH
DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN
ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON
NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES
TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK
S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED
EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST...
AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE
LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD
KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY
N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU
SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE
ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY
SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER
RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z-
12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291801
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
201 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD THINNING
FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE CENTRAL AREAS
WERE SEEING A THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS HAS CUT
BACK TEMPS A BIT. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO COVER FOR THE THICKER CIRRUS
SHIELD. CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR
NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES
CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA AND BARELY  IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN
TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES
CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD
OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH
DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN
ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON
NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES
TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK
S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED
EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST...
AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE
LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD
KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY
N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU
SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE
ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY
SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER
RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z-
12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291337
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD STREAMING
INTO THE STATE WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS SEEN ON THE 12Z UA
AND VAPOR IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH E THIS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THIN W/DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS.

SOME DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY, IT`S EXPECTED THAT A MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS AND ALONG THE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR
NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES
CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA AND BARELY  IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN
TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES
CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD
OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH
DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN
ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON
NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES
TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK
S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED
EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST...
AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE
LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD
KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY
N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU
SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE
ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY
SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER
RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z-
12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291337
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD STREAMING
INTO THE STATE WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS SEEN ON THE 12Z UA
AND VAPOR IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH E THIS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THIN W/DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS.

SOME DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY, IT`S EXPECTED THAT A MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS AND ALONG THE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR
NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES
CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA AND BARELY  IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN
TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES
CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD
OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH
DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN
ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON
NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES
TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK
S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED
EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST...
AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE
LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD
KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY
N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU
SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE
ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY
SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER
RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z-
12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291337
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD STREAMING
INTO THE STATE WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS SEEN ON THE 12Z UA
AND VAPOR IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH E THIS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THIN W/DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS.

SOME DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY, IT`S EXPECTED THAT A MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS AND ALONG THE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR
NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES
CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA AND BARELY  IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN
TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES
CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD
OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH
DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN
ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON
NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES
TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK
S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED
EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST...
AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE
LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD
KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY
N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU
SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE
ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY
SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER
RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z-
12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291337
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD STREAMING
INTO THE STATE WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS SEEN ON THE 12Z UA
AND VAPOR IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH E THIS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THIN W/DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS.

SOME DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY, IT`S EXPECTED THAT A MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS AND ALONG THE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR
NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES
CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA AND BARELY  IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN
TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES
CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD
OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH
DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN
ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON
NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES
TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK
S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED
EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST...
AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE
LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD
KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY
N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU
SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE
ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY
SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER
RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z-
12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




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