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000
FXUS61 KCAR 011523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

&&



.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

&&



.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KCAR 011304
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900 AM UPDATE: MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO BURN OFF THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE NORTH BY AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011304
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900 AM UPDATE: MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO BURN OFF THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE NORTH BY AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010957
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND INCREASE CLOUDY
COVER ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND MIST IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SKYCON WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE SUNRISES. BECOMING BKN BY MID MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010957
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND INCREASE CLOUDY
COVER ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND MIST IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SKYCON WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE SUNRISES. BECOMING BKN BY MID MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010759
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010759
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 010422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 010125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IN WESTERN PA THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK EAST AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE LOW IS MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVE WITH SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS. LOW STRATUS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. THERE IS A SHARP BACK EDGE
TO THE STRATUS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTH. THE CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
TOWARD MORNING...AND AS THE SKY CLEARS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE PATCHY FOG MAY TO FORM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 010125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IN WESTERN PA THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK EAST AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE LOW IS MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVE WITH SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS. LOW STRATUS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. THERE IS A SHARP BACK EDGE
TO THE STRATUS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTH. THE CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
TOWARD MORNING...AND AS THE SKY CLEARS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE PATCHY FOG MAY TO FORM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 302155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW
SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 302155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW
SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 301911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 301911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301532
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN CONTG PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
FA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN
WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY AGAIN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 11 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE FA FROM THE PREV
FCST TEMP AT 11 AM. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS INTO
THIS EVE REMAINED UNCHGD.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301532
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN CONTG PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
FA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN
WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY AGAIN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 11 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE FA FROM THE PREV
FCST TEMP AT 11 AM. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS INTO
THIS EVE REMAINED UNCHGD.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON








000
FXUS61 KCAR 301409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS TO THE FCST LATE THIS
MORN WITH PATCHY FOG...DZ AND LOW CLDNSS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FA.
WE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE PATCHY DZ THIS AFTN...BUT FOG SHOULD BE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH BY THIS TM TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST. FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO UNCHGD FCST HI
TEMPS BASED ON DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 9 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE PREV FCST TEMP AT 9 AM.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON








000
FXUS61 KCAR 301409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS TO THE FCST LATE THIS
MORN WITH PATCHY FOG...DZ AND LOW CLDNSS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FA.
WE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE PATCHY DZ THIS AFTN...BUT FOG SHOULD BE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH BY THIS TM TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST. FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO UNCHGD FCST HI
TEMPS BASED ON DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 9 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE PREV FCST TEMP AT 9 AM.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEDGE ANCHORING IN
MORE EXTENDING RIGHT DOWN INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. RADAR SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. ADDED
AREAS OF ALONG W/THE DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. MID OT UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE
CROWN W/36F AT KFVE.

DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.


SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
645 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA OUT THROUGH 10 AM AS 6
FOOT SEAS ARE HOLDING STRONG W/20 KTS SUSTAINED NE WINDS AND GUST
NEAR 25 KTS.

NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST 25+ KTS.
SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER 8 AM.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VSBYS TO
3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300823
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.


SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST 25+ KTS.
SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS BY 8 AM AND
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE HEADLINE W/THE 7 AM UPDATE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VSBYS TO
3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON












000
FXUS61 KCAR 300823
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.


SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST 25+ KTS.
SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS BY 8 AM AND
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE HEADLINE W/THE 7 AM UPDATE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VSBYS TO
3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON













000
FXUS61 KCAR 300454
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS BASED ON THE
RADAR. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES IN E CANADA WEDGING
DOWN INTO THE REGION W/A SURFACE TROF ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HIGH. ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR W/SSW FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM
950-800MBS AND A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THIS LAYER. THIS IS INDICATE OF A
DRIZZLE SETUP WHICH IS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVRNGT, SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
LOW CLDNSS SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE
MORN...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC
WILL LIKELY HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI
TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300454
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS BASED ON THE
RADAR. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES IN E CANADA WEDGING
DOWN INTO THE REGION W/A SURFACE TROF ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HIGH. ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR W/SSW FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM
950-800MBS AND A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THIS LAYER. THIS IS INDICATE OF A
DRIZZLE SETUP WHICH IS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVRNGT, SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
LOW CLDNSS SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE
MORN...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC
WILL LIKELY HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI
TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 300103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
902 PM UPDATE...A VERY MOIST SOUNDING THIS EVENING AT KCAR WITH A
SATURATED LAYER FROM 875-600 MILLIBARS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE
ST JOHN VALLEY. THE NEAR TERM MODELS WOULD HAVE MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY
TO THE L/M 50S DOWN EAST. EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE UPPER 30S IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH M/U 40S FOR MOST DOWN EAST AREAS. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/VJN/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
902 PM UPDATE...A VERY MOIST SOUNDING THIS EVENING AT KCAR WITH A
SATURATED LAYER FROM 875-600 MILLIBARS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE
ST JOHN VALLEY. THE NEAR TERM MODELS WOULD HAVE MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY
TO THE L/M 50S DOWN EAST. EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE UPPER 30S IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH M/U 40S FOR MOST DOWN EAST AREAS. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/VJN/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 292154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES.

LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 292154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES.

LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 291914
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS












000
FXUS61 KCAR 291914
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS











000
FXUS61 KCAR 291616
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1216 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS THIS UPDATE FROM THE LAST
UPDATE...WITH 10 AND 11 AM OBSVD TEMPS BLENDED WITH THE HRLY TEMP
FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND
QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF
WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE
CONSENSUS MOS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM
825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING
IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL
A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES
WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A
LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A
BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW
PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40%
POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NOON UPDATE...SO MUCH FOR BACKING OFF THE ONSET OF THE
SCA TIL LATE AFTN...WITH THE 10 AND 11 AM BUOY OBS SHOWING WINDS
GOING FROM LESS THAN 10 KT OVR JONESPORT AND THE ERN ME SHELF TO
20G30KT WITH LITTLE RAMP UP TM INSIDE AN HR. WVS HAVE BEGUN TO
RESPOND BY INCREASING FROM 2 TO 4 FT DURG THIS TM...SO BEST TO
ISSUE THE SCA NOW.

ORGNL DISC...HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM
(SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA
AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE
OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL
MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION
WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY
WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH.
WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 291615
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS THIS UPDATE FROM THE LAST
UPDATE...WITH 10 AND 11 AM OBSVD TEMPS BLENDED WITH THE HRLY TEMP
FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND
QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF
WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE
CONSENSUS MOS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM
825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING
IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL
A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES
WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A
LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A
BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW
PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40%
POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NOON UPDATE...SO MUCH FOR BACKING OFF THE ONSET OF THE
SCA TIL LATE AFTN...WITH THE 10 AND 11 AM BUOY OBS SHOWING WINDS
GOING FROM LESS THAN 10 KT OVR JONESPORT AND THE ERN ME SHELF TO
20G30KT WITH LITTLE RAMP UP TM INSIDE AN HR. WVS HAVE BEGUN TO
REPOND BY INCREASING FROM 2 TO 4 FT DURG THIS TM...SO BEST TO
ISSUE THE SCA NOW.

ORGNL DISC...HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM
(SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA
AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE
OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL
MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION
WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY
WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH.
WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 291408
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE: WE HAD TO INITIALLY BACK OFF OF POPS FOR THIS
MORN...WITH LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHWRS ARRIVING FROM ERN QB PROV ATTM. INSTEAD...WE MERGE TO
HIGHER LATE DAY POPS ACROSS THE N...WHERE MOST MODELS INDICATE LGT
OVRRNG RNFL BREAKING OUT BY EVE. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS HAD TO BE
MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND FCST HI TEMPS...WITH MANY 8-9 AM OBS
ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA ALREADY ABV FCST HI TEMPS. THE
OVR TREND WILL BE FOR TEMPS TO LVL OFF AND EVEN FALL ACROSS EVEN
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTN AS THE LLVL ADVCN AND LOW CLD CVR TAKES
OVR.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND
QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF
WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE
CONSENSUS MOS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM
825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING
IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL
A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES
WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A
LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A
BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW
PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40%
POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WE BACKED OFF THE ONSET OF THE SCA FOR
ALL OF OUR WATERS BY 3 HRS...WITH WINDS AND WVS SLOW TO INCREASE
THRU MID MORN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR FCST. WE ALSO USED A BLEND OF
THE HIGHER SWAN WV GUIDANCE WITH THE LOWER WW3 WV HTS FOR PEAK WV
HTS THIS EVE...RATHER THAN SOLEY RELYING ON THE SWAN MODEL...WITH
THE RESULT BEING A MAX OF 7 FT SHORT PD WV HTS OVR OUR OUTER MOST
MZS.

ORGNL DISC...HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM
(SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA
AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE
OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL
MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION
WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY
WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH.
WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 291058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
658 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
TODAY WITH COLDER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0655 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT... NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE
BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE
MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM
825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING
IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL
A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES
WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A
LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A
BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW
PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40%
POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM
(SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA
AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE
OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL
MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION
WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY
WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH.
WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 291058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
658 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
TODAY WITH COLDER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0655 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT... NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE
BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE
MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM
825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING
IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL
A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES
WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A
LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A
BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW
PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40%
POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM
(SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA
AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE
OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL
MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION
WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY
WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH.
WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 290848
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
448 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
TODAY WITH COLDER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE
BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE
MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM
825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING
IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL
A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES
WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A
LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A
BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW
PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40%
POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM
(SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA
AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE
OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL
MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION
WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY
WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH.
WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290545
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
145 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0145 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE VERY LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON MORNING...AND TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN THE AIR. IT IS NOT GOING TO GET THAT COLD
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE MANY WILL
FIND IT A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. THE ONGOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
CHANGE NICELY...AND THE ONLY UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO
INCORPORATE THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TO MAKE SOME VERY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIURNAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR BKN-OVC
SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY DAYBREAK
MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY MON
AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A NEWS STORY WAS POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE CONCERNING THE
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...MANY OF WHICH WERE ALL-
TIME WARM TEMPS FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER/GOV
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 290545
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
145 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0145 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE VERY LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON MORNING...AND TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN THE AIR. IT IS NOT GOING TO GET THAT COLD
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE MANY WILL
FIND IT A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. THE ONGOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
CHANGE NICELY...AND THE ONLY UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO
INCORPORATE THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TO MAKE SOME VERY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIURNAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR BKN-OVC
SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY DAYBREAK
MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY MON
AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A NEWS STORY WAS POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE CONCERNING THE
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...MANY OF WHICH WERE ALL-
TIME WARM TEMPS FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER/GOV
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 290118
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
918 PM UPDATE...ALL GOOD THINGS WEATHER-WISE EVENTUALLY COME TO
AN END. THERE WILL BE A REALITY CHECK MONDAY AFTER A STUNNING FALL
WEEKEND THAT PRODUCED NUMEROUS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE VERY LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON MORNING...AND TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN THE AIR. IT IS NOT GOING TO GET THAT COLD
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE MANY WILL
FIND IT A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. THE ONGOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
CHANGE NICELY...AND THE ONLY UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO
INCORPORATE THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TO MAKE SOME VERY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIURNAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR BKN-OVC
SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY DAYBREAK
MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY MON
AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A NEWS STORY WAS POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE CONCERNING THE
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...MANY OF WHICH WERE ALL-
TIME WARM TEMPS FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER/GOV
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...CB/VJN/JORDAN
CLIMATE...VJN/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 290118
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
918 PM UPDATE...ALL GOOD THINGS WEATHER-WISE EVENTUALLY COME TO
AN END. THERE WILL BE A REALITY CHECK MONDAY AFTER A STUNNING FALL
WEEKEND THAT PRODUCED NUMEROUS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE VERY LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON MORNING...AND TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN THE AIR. IT IS NOT GOING TO GET THAT COLD
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE MANY WILL
FIND IT A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. THE ONGOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
CHANGE NICELY...AND THE ONLY UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO
INCORPORATE THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TO MAKE SOME VERY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIURNAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR BKN-OVC
SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY DAYBREAK
MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY MON
AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A NEWS STORY WAS POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE CONCERNING THE
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...MANY OF WHICH WERE ALL-
TIME WARM TEMPS FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER/GOV
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...CB/VJN/JORDAN
CLIMATE...VJN/CB









000
FXUS61 KCAR 282210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE...ALL GOOD THINGS WEATHER-WISE AT SOME POINT COME
TO AN END...AND IT WILL BE A BACK TO REALITY MONDAY AFTER A
STUNNING FALL WEEKEND THAT PRODUCED NUMEROUS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. THE SATELLITE SHOWS A COLD
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE GASPE PENINSULA...AND THIS IS NOT A WEAK
FRONT BY ANY MEANS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH SNOW
FLURRIES IN THE AIR. IT IS NOT GOING TO GET THAT COLD ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON
MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE MANY WILL FIND IT A
SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. THE ONGOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS CHANGE
NICELY AND THE ONLY UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIURNAL
TRENDS THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
BKN-OVC SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY
DAYBREAK MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY
MON AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...A NEWS STORY WAS POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE CONCERNING THE
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...MANY OF WHICH WERE ALL-
TIME WARM TEMPS FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER/GOV


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...CB/VJN/JORDAN
CLIMATE...VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 282210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE...ALL GOOD THINGS WEATHER-WISE AT SOME POINT COME
TO AN END...AND IT WILL BE A BACK TO REALITY MONDAY AFTER A
STUNNING FALL WEEKEND THAT PRODUCED NUMEROUS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. THE SATELLITE SHOWS A COLD
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE GASPE PENINSULA...AND THIS IS NOT A WEAK
FRONT BY ANY MEANS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH SNOW
FLURRIES IN THE AIR. IT IS NOT GOING TO GET THAT COLD ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON
MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE MANY WILL FIND IT A
SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. THE ONGOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS CHANGE
NICELY AND THE ONLY UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIURNAL
TRENDS THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
BKN-OVC SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY
DAYBREAK MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY
MON AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...A NEWS STORY WAS POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE CONCERNING THE
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...MANY OF WHICH WERE ALL-
TIME WARM TEMPS FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER/GOV


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...CB/VJN/JORDAN
CLIMATE...VJN/CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
BKN-OVC SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY
DAYBREAK MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY
MON AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED AT CARIBOU...HOULTON...
MILLINOCKET AND BANGOR...WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CARIBOU AND
HOULTON THE WARMEST FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. MORE INFO WILL BE
GIVEN WITH THE GENERATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RECORD REPORTS FOR
EACH LOCATION WHEN THE AFTERNOON DAILY CLIMATE MESSAGES ARE
GENERATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN
CLIMATE...VJN/CB











000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N...
REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR
REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS
OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN
HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE AFTN.

WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG
AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY
VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND
DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP
TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS
COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A
BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
BKN-OVC SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY
DAYBREAK MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY
MON AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES
PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS
INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA
CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS
DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED AT CARIBOU...HOULTON...
MILLINOCKET AND BANGOR...WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CARIBOU AND
HOULTON THE WARMEST FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. MORE INFO WILL BE
GIVEN WITH THE GENERATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RECORD REPORTS FOR
EACH LOCATION WHEN THE AFTERNOON DAILY CLIMATE MESSAGES ARE
GENERATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN
CLIMATE...VJN/CB












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