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000
FXUS61 KCAR 220112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED RAIN COVERAGE JUST A BIT NORTH THROUGH
PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AND LOWERED RAIN COVERAGE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 212209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...HAD TO EXPAND RAIN COVERAGE INTO EASTERN DOWNEAST
LOCATIONS AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT
DOWNEAST WHERE RAIN HAS COOLED THE AIR.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 212209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...HAD TO EXPAND RAIN COVERAGE INTO EASTERN DOWNEAST
LOCATIONS AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT
DOWNEAST WHERE RAIN HAS COOLED THE AIR.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 212001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE OPTD TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIER...DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND PTN OF THE EVENT SPANNING THU INTO FRI MORN OF OUR FCST. FCST
STORM TOTAL QPF...WHICH SUMMED THE 6 HRLY QPFS FROM 18Z WED THRU
00Z SAT INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF 3 INCH OR GREATER RNFL OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE USED TO DELINEATE
THE N CUT-OFF THE WATCH ATTM. ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY
SHARP CUT-OFF OF TOTAL RNFL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA (TO AS
LOW AS ARND 1 INCH IN THE ST JOHN VLY)...WHERE LITTLE OF THE
OVRRNG RNFL WED WILL REACH...AND THE HEAVIEST DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND WILL TAKE TO LONGEST TO ARRIVE AND RESIDES RELATIVELY THE
SHORTEST TM FRAME COMPARED TO LCTNS IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS SHARP
CUT-OFF OF RNFL OVR THE N WAS ALSO IMPLIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG TOOL
FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS MO...WHICH TAKES THE AVG OF 10 TO 15
SIMILAR ANAOLGS THAT OCCURRED WITHIN A MONTH OF THE DAT OF THIS
CURRENT EVENT OVR THE PAST 30 TO 40 YRS OR SO.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN














000
FXUS61 KCAR 212001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE OPTD TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIER...DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND PTN OF THE EVENT SPANNING THU INTO FRI MORN OF OUR FCST. FCST
STORM TOTAL QPF...WHICH SUMMED THE 6 HRLY QPFS FROM 18Z WED THRU
00Z SAT INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF 3 INCH OR GREATER RNFL OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE USED TO DELINEATE
THE N CUT-OFF THE WATCH ATTM. ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY
SHARP CUT-OFF OF TOTAL RNFL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA (TO AS
LOW AS ARND 1 INCH IN THE ST JOHN VLY)...WHERE LITTLE OF THE
OVRRNG RNFL WED WILL REACH...AND THE HEAVIEST DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND WILL TAKE TO LONGEST TO ARRIVE AND RESIDES RELATIVELY THE
SHORTEST TM FRAME COMPARED TO LCTNS IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS SHARP
CUT-OFF OF RNFL OVR THE N WAS ALSO IMPLIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG TOOL
FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS MO...WHICH TAKES THE AVG OF 10 TO 15
SIMILAR ANAOLGS THAT OCCURRED WITHIN A MONTH OF THE DAT OF THIS
CURRENT EVENT OVR THE PAST 30 TO 40 YRS OR SO.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN














000
FXUS61 KCAR 211952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE OPTD TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIER...DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND PTN OF THE EVENT SPANNING THU INTO FRI MORN OF OUR FCST. FCST
STORM TOTAL QPF...WHICH SUMMED THE 6 HRLY QPFS FROM 18Z WED THRU
00Z SAT INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF 3 INCH OR GREATER RNFL OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE USED TO DELINEATE
THE N CUT-OFF THE WATCH ATTM. ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY
SHARP CUT-OFF OF TOTAL RNFL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE
FA...WHERE LITTLE OF THE OVRRNG RNFL WED WILL REACH...AND THE
HEAVIEST DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL TAKE TO LONGEST TO ARRIVE AND
RESIDES RELATIVELY THE SHORTEST TM FRAME COMPARED TO LCTNS IN THE
WATCH AREA. THIS SHARP CUT-OFF OF RNFL OVR THE N WAS ALSO IMPLIED
BY THE CIPS ANALOG TOOL FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS MO...WHICH TAKES
THE AVG OF 10 TO 15 SIMILAR ANAOLGS THAT OCCURRED WITHIN A MONTH OF
THE DAT OF THIS CURRENT EVENT OVR THE PAST 30 TO 40 YRS OR SO.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN












000
FXUS61 KCAR 211712
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. LOOK FOR
RAIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...BECOMING MVFR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DOWNEAST AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND PERHAPS IFR LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER
NORTH, RAIN MAY MAKE IT NORTH TO HOULTON, BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH TO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
833 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF RAIN FOR
EVERYWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON MODELS
AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...BECOMING MVFR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DOWNEAST AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND PERHAPS IFR LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER
NORTH, RAIN MAY MAKE IT NORTH TO HOULTON, BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH TO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
833 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF RAIN FOR
EVERYWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON MODELS
AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...BECOMING MVFR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DOWNEAST AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND PERHAPS IFR LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER
NORTH, RAIN MAY MAKE IT NORTH TO HOULTON, BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH TO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210852
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
452 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 210852
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
452 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE











000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE










000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE










000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE











000
FXUS61 KCAR 210115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER DOWNEAST AND
RAISED DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 210115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER DOWNEAST AND
RAISED DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 202208
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
608 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND BROUGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 202208
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
608 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND BROUGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 202208
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
608 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND BROUGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 202208
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
608 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND BROUGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201937
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA











000
FXUS61 KCAR 201937
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA












000
FXUS61 KCAR 201413
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1013 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1015 AM EDT: UPDATED TO DROP THE SCA FROM THE INTERCOASTAL
WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0910 AM EDT: MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0910 AM EDT: MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0635 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 201035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0635 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KCAR 200418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 192200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES IN EASTERN AREAS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 192200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES IN EASTERN AREAS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE










000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER







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