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000
FXUS61 KCAR 071100
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...A FAIRLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IS RAPIDLY SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH, AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL. THE SQUALL WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO
FALL APART BY AROUND 7/8 AM AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE CROWN OF
MAINE. THE SQUALL IS BEING COVERED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL WITH WHITE-OUTS/WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS WILL SLOWLY FALL ALL DAY. IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE
ISLE AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND
SLOWLY FALL. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY FALL. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH
LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE
DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE FAR NW MAY DROP TO
20 BELOW OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD, BUT
DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY POTENT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH TWO SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE TWO SURFACE
LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, THE FIRST
ONE MONDAY PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SECOND ONE TUESDAY
BEING CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER, ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL EXIST FOR DECENT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING MAINLY
DOWNEAST, SPREADING NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PROLONGED
SNOW EVENT FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 8 INCHES DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY MIGRATES OVER OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY BE
AROUND ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND AROUND 10 DOWNEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF VLIFR IN A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL EARLY THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI TO KFVE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 12-13Z THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS AROUND THE MVFR/IFR BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY DOWNEAST AND PROGRESS NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY.  EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6
AM MON MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING, WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SO FAR THIS MONTH TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 12.3 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AT CARIBOU AND 14.2 ABOVE AVERAGE AT BANGOR. MONTH
TO DATE IT HAS BEEN THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE
7TH WARMEST AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/FOISY
MARINE...CB/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 070842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL WITH WHITE-OUTS/WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS WILL SLOWLY FALL ALL DAY. IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE
ISLE AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND
SLOWLY FALL. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY FALL. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH
LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE
DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE FAR NW MAY DROP TO
20 BELOW OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD, BUT
DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY POTENT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH TWO SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE TWO SURFACE
LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, THE FIRST
ONE MONDAY PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SECOND ONE TUESDAY
BEING CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER, ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL EXIST FOR DECENT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING MAINLY
DOWNEAST, SPREADING NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PROLONGED
SNOW EVENT FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 8 INCHES DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY MIGRATES OVER OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY BE
AROUND ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND AROUND 10 DOWNEAST.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL EARLY
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI TO KFVE WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS AROUND THE MVFR/IFR BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY DOWNEAST AND PROGRESS NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY.  EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6
AM MON MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING, WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THIS MONTH TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 12.3DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AT CARIBOU AND 14.2 ABOVE AVERAGE AT BANGOR. MONTH
TO DATE IT HAS BEEN THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE
7TH WARMEST AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/FOISY
MARINE...CB/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 070842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL WITH WHITE-OUTS/WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS WILL SLOWLY FALL ALL DAY. IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE
ISLE AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND
SLOWLY FALL. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY FALL. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH
LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE
DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE FAR NW MAY DROP TO
20 BELOW OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD, BUT
DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY POTENT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH TWO SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE TWO SURFACE
LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, THE FIRST
ONE MONDAY PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SECOND ONE TUESDAY
BEING CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER, ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL EXIST FOR DECENT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING MAINLY
DOWNEAST, SPREADING NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PROLONGED
SNOW EVENT FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 8 INCHES DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY MIGRATES OVER OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY BE
AROUND ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND AROUND 10 DOWNEAST.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL EARLY
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI TO KFVE WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS AROUND THE MVFR/IFR BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY DOWNEAST AND PROGRESS NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY.  EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6
AM MON MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING, WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THIS MONTH TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 12.3DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AT CARIBOU AND 14.2 ABOVE AVERAGE AT BANGOR. MONTH
TO DATE IT HAS BEEN THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE
7TH WARMEST AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/FOISY
MARINE...CB/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 070842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL WITH WHITE-OUTS/WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS WILL SLOWLY FALL ALL DAY. IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE
ISLE AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND
SLOWLY FALL. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY FALL. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH
LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE
DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE FAR NW MAY DROP TO
20 BELOW OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD, BUT
DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY POTENT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH TWO SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE TWO SURFACE
LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, THE FIRST
ONE MONDAY PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SECOND ONE TUESDAY
BEING CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER, ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL EXIST FOR DECENT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING MAINLY
DOWNEAST, SPREADING NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PROLONGED
SNOW EVENT FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 8 INCHES DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY MIGRATES OVER OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY BE
AROUND ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND AROUND 10 DOWNEAST.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL EARLY
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI TO KFVE WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS AROUND THE MVFR/IFR BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY DOWNEAST AND PROGRESS NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY.  EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6
AM MON MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING, WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THIS MONTH TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 12.3DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AT CARIBOU AND 14.2 ABOVE AVERAGE AT BANGOR. MONTH
TO DATE IT HAS BEEN THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE
7TH WARMEST AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/FOISY
MARINE...CB/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 070514
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1214 AM...LOW PRES WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NW MAINE TOWARD MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. A LINE
OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A HEAVY SQUALL WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS BY AROUND 11Z. THE LINE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS IT PRESSES SOUTH. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING FOR THE MORE INTENSE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND
REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...CB/MCW/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 070407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1107 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS
WHERE UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH AROUND
20 TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MID 20S
TO AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES..CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND
REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 070138
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS
WHERE UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH AROUND
20 TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES..CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND
REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 070138
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS
WHERE UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH AROUND
20 TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES..CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND
REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 070138
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS
WHERE UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH AROUND
20 TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES..CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND
REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 062125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
425 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY OR RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS
WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES. &&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT MVFR TEMPO IFR AT FVE DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT HUL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH
TEMPO LIFR VIS AND NORTH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THIS FRONT WILL
BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXTENDED
IT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 061804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
104 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TIMING FOR TOMORROW`S COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY...MID
TO LATE MORNING NEAR HOULTON AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR BANGOR. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY TO NEAR
ZERO AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE UP TO A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW AS IT PASSES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z
AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 061451
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
944 AM UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD SHORTWAVE ARE SPREADING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS EARLY SUNDAY. THE CONCERN
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS IN NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z
AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 061451
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
944 AM UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD SHORTWAVE ARE SPREADING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS EARLY SUNDAY. THE CONCERN
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS IN NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z
AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 061451
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
944 AM UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD SHORTWAVE ARE SPREADING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS EARLY SUNDAY. THE CONCERN
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS IN NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z
AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 061114
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
614 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR UPDATES AS THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE 6 AM OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z
AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 10.9" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT BANGOR YESTERDAY. THIS
BREAKS THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 8.0" IN 1949.
THIS WAS THE GREATEST DAILY SNOWFALL AT BANGOR SINCE 12.3" FELL ON
FEB 2ND LAST YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 061114
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
614 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR UPDATES AS THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE 6 AM OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z
AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 10.9" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT BANGOR YESTERDAY. THIS
BREAKS THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 8.0" IN 1949.
THIS WAS THE GREATEST DAILY SNOWFALL AT BANGOR SINCE 12.3" FELL ON
FEB 2ND LAST YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 061114
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
614 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR UPDATES AS THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE 6 AM OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z
AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 10.9" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT BANGOR YESTERDAY. THIS
BREAKS THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 8.0" IN 1949.
THIS WAS THE GREATEST DAILY SNOWFALL AT BANGOR SINCE 12.3" FELL ON
FEB 2ND LAST YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 060755
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z AND QUICKLY SWEEP
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE
COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN.
THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM
SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT
DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 10.9" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT BANGOR
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE DATE OF
8.0" IN 1949. THIS WAS THE GREATEST DAILY SNOWFALL AT BANGOR SINCE
12.3" FELL ON FEB 2ND LAST YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 060515
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST THE STATE AROUND 12Z
SAT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY AND IT IS -6F AT ESTCOURT STATION
AS OF MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST, MAINLY TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
LOW IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE LOWERED THE GLW OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 TO AN
SCA WITH WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KT OVR OUR WATERS...
OTHERWISE THE GLW CONTS OVR THE OUTER WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 10.9" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT BANGOR
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE DATE OF
8.0" IN 1949.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 060317
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1017 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1005 PM UPDATE: JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE REMAINING SN HAS MOVED E OF
THE FA ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING SN SHWRS/FLURRIES OVR ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REDUCE CLD
CVR OVR THE MOST OF THE REST OF THE FA AND WE LOWERED WINDS IN
BROAD VLYS FOR LATE TNGT BASED ON TEMPS ALREADY FALLING FAST OVR
NW VLYS WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED FROM FASTER WINDS ALF.
BASED ON THESE LATEST OBSVD TEMP TRENDS...OVRNGT FCST LOWS WERE
LOWERED BY A FEW DEG OVR THE NW AND ABOUT A DEG OR TWO OVR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE N...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS THEN UPDATED BETWEEN 9 PM
AND 7 AM.

ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
LOW IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE LOWERED THE GLW OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 TO AN
SCA WITH WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KT OVR OUR WATERS...
OTHERWISE THE GLW CONTS OVR THE OUTER WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 060022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
705 PM UPDATE: ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE FALLING SNFL
OCCURRING OVR SE PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS EVE...HIGH END SN RATES
HAVE ENDED OVR THE ADV AND WNTR STM WRNG AREAS...SO WE LET THEM
ALL EXPIRE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH...PERHAPS LCLY UP TO 2
ADDITIONAL INCHES...BUT WITH THE DAMAGE DONE AND WHATS LEFT OF
STEADY SN ABOUT TO FINISH BY MOVG INTO NB..NO NEED TO XTND ANY
WNTR HDLNS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
LOW IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE LOWERED THE GLW OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 TO AN
SCA WITH WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KT OVR OUR WATERS...
OTHERWISE THE GLW CONTS OVR THE OUTER WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 060022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
705 PM UPDATE: ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE FALLING SNFL
OCCURRING OVR SE PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS EVE...HIGH END SN RATES
HAVE ENDED OVR THE ADV AND WNTR STM WRNG AREAS...SO WE LET THEM
ALL EXPIRE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH...PERHAPS LCLY UP TO 2
ADDITIONAL INCHES...BUT WITH THE DAMAGE DONE AND WHATS LEFT OF
STEADY SN ABOUT TO FINISH BY MOVG INTO NB..NO NEED TO XTND ANY
WNTR HDLNS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
LOW IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE LOWERED THE GLW OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 TO AN
SCA WITH WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KT OVR OUR WATERS...
OTHERWISE THE GLW CONTS OVR THE OUTER WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 052203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
503 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE LOW IS STARTING TO
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE
ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 052203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
503 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE LOW IS STARTING TO
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE
ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 052203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
503 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE LOW IS STARTING TO
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE
ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 051839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY WITH THIS UPDATE.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOW WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MAINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO
THE LOWER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SNOWFALL
TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 051839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY WITH THIS UPDATE.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOW WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MAINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO
THE LOWER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SNOWFALL
TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 051839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY WITH THIS UPDATE.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOW WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MAINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO
THE LOWER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SNOWFALL
TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 051604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOW WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MAINE. ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20
TO THE LOWER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SNOWFALL
TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING LESS
THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON INCLUDING THE CARIBOU
AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-015-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 051604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOW WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MAINE. ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20
TO THE LOWER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SNOWFALL
TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING LESS
THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON INCLUDING THE CARIBOU
AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-015-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 051604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOW WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MAINE. ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20
TO THE LOWER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SNOWFALL
TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING LESS
THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON INCLUDING THE CARIBOU
AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-015-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 051110
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PASS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN
MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE
SNOW IS STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE ATTM. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
LATER TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN
DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK...ALL OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD DOWNEAST AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MAINE BY AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP
SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE
CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG
THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MAINE WOODS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON
INCLUDING THE CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DOWNEAST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY KBGR/KBHB IN
SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST. KFVE WILL BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SNOW SHIELD TODAY AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR. EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 7
FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 051110
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PASS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN
MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE
SNOW IS STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE ATTM. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
LATER TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN
DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK...ALL OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD DOWNEAST AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MAINE BY AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP
SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE
CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG
THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MAINE WOODS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON
INCLUDING THE CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DOWNEAST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY KBGR/KBHB IN
SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST. KFVE WILL BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SNOW SHIELD TODAY AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR. EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 7
FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 051110
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PASS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN
MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE
SNOW IS STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE ATTM. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
LATER TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN
DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK...ALL OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD DOWNEAST AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MAINE BY AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP
SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE
CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG
THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MAINE WOODS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON
INCLUDING THE CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DOWNEAST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY KBGR/KBHB IN
SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST. KFVE WILL BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SNOW SHIELD TODAY AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR. EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 7
FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
     006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 050920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PASS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN
MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN DOWNEAST MAINE.
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK...ALL OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD DOWNEAST AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MAINE BY AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP
SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE
CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG
THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MAINE WOODS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON
INCLUDING THE CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DOWNEAST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY KBGR/KBHB IN
SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST. KFVE WILL BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SNOW SHIELD TODAY AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR. EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 7
FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 050920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PASS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN
MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN DOWNEAST MAINE.
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK...ALL OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD DOWNEAST AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MAINE BY AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP
SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE
CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG
THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MAINE WOODS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON
INCLUDING THE CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DOWNEAST MAINE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1".
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE
WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID,
SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY KBGR/KBHB IN
SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST. KFVE WILL BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SNOW SHIELD TODAY AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR. EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN
SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 7
FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016-
     017-029-030-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 050527
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1227 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE TODAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO DOWN EAST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NO CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE BUT WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT
SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR
LESS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
SNOW SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER
30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A
RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW
FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE
TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE
STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE
TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS
LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR
VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 705 PM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS IN FAVOR OF A GALE WRNG FOR
OUTER MZS050-051 FROM 21Z FRI-06Z SAT AND AN SCA FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM 17Z FRI TIL 06Z SAT
BASED ON FCST WINDS AND SEAS FROM THE PRIOR AFTN FCST UPDATE FOR
THIS TM PD...CORRESPONDING THE NW PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED IN
DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATE TONIGHT THU FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35
KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 050251
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
935 PM UPDATE: AGAIN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST CLD CVR AND
HRLY TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS TO THE NEAR TERM FCST ATTM. WITH
REGARD TO CLD CVR...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FA HAS MSLY CLDY
SKIES...SO WE NO LONGER REFERENCE PTLY CLDY SKIES FOR ANY PTN OF
TNGT. OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING SLOWER THAN PREV FCST GOING
INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH A WEAK...BUT STILL DISTINCT
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVG SE THRU NRN ME...CURRENTLY
JUST ENTERING THE CARIBOU AREA. TEMPS STILL HAVE A CHC TO CATCH
UP UP TO FCST LOWS ACROSS THE FA LATER TNGT...SO WE HELD OFF ON
MAKING CHGS TO OVRNGT FCST LOWS POSTED AT 7 AM.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR
LESS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
SNOW SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER
30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A
RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW
FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE
TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE
STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE
TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS
LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR
VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 705 PM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS IN FAVOR OF A GALE WRNG FOR
OUTER MZS050-051 FROM 21Z FRI-06Z SAT AND AN SCA FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM 17Z FRI TIL 06Z SAT
BASED ON FCST WINDS AND SEAS FROM THE PRIOR AFTN FCST UPDATE FOR
THIS TM PD...CORRESPONDING THE NW PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED IN
DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATE TONIGHT THU FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35
KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 050040
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
740 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
708 PM UPDATE: SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST CLD CVR AND HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS TO THE NEAR TERM FCST ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR
LESS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
SNOW SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER
30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A
RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW
FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE
TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE
STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE
TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS
LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR
VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 705 PM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS IN FAVOR OF A GALE WRNG FOR
OUTER MZS050-051 FROM 21Z FRI-06Z SAT AND AN SCA FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM 17Z FRI TIL 06Z SAT
BASED ON FCST WINDS AND SEAS FROM THE PRIOR AFTN FCST UPDATE FOR
THIS TM PD...CORRESPONDING THE NW PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED IN
DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATE TONIGHT THU FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35
KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 050040
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
740 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
708 PM UPDATE: SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST CLD CVR AND HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS TO THE NEAR TERM FCST ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR
LESS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
SNOW SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER
30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A
RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW
FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE
TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE
STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE
TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS
LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR
VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 705 PM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS IN FAVOR OF A GALE WRNG FOR
OUTER MZS050-051 FROM 21Z FRI-06Z SAT AND AN SCA FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM 17Z FRI TIL 06Z SAT
BASED ON FCST WINDS AND SEAS FROM THE PRIOR AFTN FCST UPDATE FOR
THIS TM PD...CORRESPONDING THE NW PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED IN
DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATE TONIGHT THU FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35
KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 050040
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
740 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
708 PM UPDATE: SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST CLD CVR AND HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS TO THE NEAR TERM FCST ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR
LESS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
SNOW SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER
30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A
RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW
FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE
TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE
STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE
TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS
LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR
VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 705 PM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS IN FAVOR OF A GALE WRNG FOR
OUTER MZS050-051 FROM 21Z FRI-06Z SAT AND AN SCA FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM 17Z FRI TIL 06Z SAT
BASED ON FCST WINDS AND SEAS FROM THE PRIOR AFTN FCST UPDATE FOR
THIS TM PD...CORRESPONDING THE NW PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED IN
DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATE TONIGHT THU FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35
KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 042156
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE SNOW
SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER
30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A
RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW
FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE
TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE
STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE
TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS
LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR
VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN ANY FOG THIS EVENING...THEN IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW
LATER TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE LEVELS
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35
KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 042156
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE SNOW
SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER
30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A
RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW
FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE
TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE
STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE
TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS
LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR
VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN ANY FOG THIS EVENING...THEN IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW
LATER TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE LEVELS
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35
KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 041802
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
102 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT ARE NOW EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH
MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHALLENGING SET UP FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY AFFECT THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF ALL
BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTER ISLANDS AND COAST AND
THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF EVEN BROUGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS
FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WITH THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY), AND IF THE NW TREND CONTINUES
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE. PROBABLY THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG THE COAST. WILL BEEF UP THE
POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL HAVE AROUND 2"
OF SNOW IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST THINKING FROM WPC. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
PRETTY QUICK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. A SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE
REGION FRI NIGHT AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. TEMPS FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD. IT MAY NOT BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT AS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER APPROACH LATER AT NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE SAT AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES INTO SW QUEBEC. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY, BUT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK OVERRUNNING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SAT NIGHT WITH AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUN MORNING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL. THE TIMING IS
NOT GREAT WITH THE FRONT COMING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RIDGING
BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WHAT HAPPENS FROM LATE
MON THROUGH WED REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW, BUT HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES
INTERACT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PHASING AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. A REVIEW OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS A LOT MORE
VARIABILITY IN THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
AMOUNTS AND DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FRI MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND ESPECIALLY AT KBHB IN A
PERIOD OF -SN. MAINLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO PREDOMINATELY MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF  IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE IN SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN FOG AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THEN IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE WATERS.  THE WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER
SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE SAT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 041604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST
AREAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE ALSO TRANSITIONED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH
MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHALLENGING SET UP FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY AFFECT THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF ALL
BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTER ISLANDS AND COAST AND
THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF EVEN BROUGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS
FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WITH THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY), AND IF THE NW TREND CONTINUES
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE. PROBABLY THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG THE COAST. WILL BEEF UP THE
POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL HAVE AROUND 2"
OF SNOW IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST THINKING FROM WPC. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
PRETTY QUICK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. A SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE
REGION FRI NIGHT AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. TEMPS FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD. IT MAY NOT BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT AS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER APPROACH LATER AT NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE SAT AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES INTO SW QUEBEC. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY, BUT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK OVERRUNNING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SAT NIGHT WITH AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUN MORNING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL. THE TIMING IS
NOT GREAT WITH THE FRONT COMING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RIDGING
BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WHAT HAPPENS FROM LATE
MON THROUGH WED REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW, BUT HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES
INTERACT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PHASING AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. A REVIEW OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS A LOT MORE
VARIABILITY IN THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
AMOUNTS AND DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FRI MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND ESPECIALLY AT KBHB IN A
PERIOD OF -SN. MAINLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO PREDOMINATELY MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF  IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE IN SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE TRANSITIONED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH WILL RUN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN FOG AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN
IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE WATERS.  THE WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER
SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE SAT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST
AREAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE ALSO TRANSITIONED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH
MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHALLENGING SET UP FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY AFFECT THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF ALL
BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTER ISLANDS AND COAST AND
THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF EVEN BROUGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS
FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WITH THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY), AND IF THE NW TREND CONTINUES
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE. PROBABLY THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG THE COAST. WILL BEEF UP THE
POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL HAVE AROUND 2"
OF SNOW IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST THINKING FROM WPC. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
PRETTY QUICK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. A SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE
REGION FRI NIGHT AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. TEMPS FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD. IT MAY NOT BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT AS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER APPROACH LATER AT NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE SAT AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES INTO SW QUEBEC. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY, BUT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK OVERRUNNING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SAT NIGHT WITH AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUN MORNING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL. THE TIMING IS
NOT GREAT WITH THE FRONT COMING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RIDGING
BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WHAT HAPPENS FROM LATE
MON THROUGH WED REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW, BUT HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES
INTERACT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PHASING AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. A REVIEW OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS A LOT MORE
VARIABILITY IN THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
AMOUNTS AND DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FRI MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND ESPECIALLY AT KBHB IN A
PERIOD OF -SN. MAINLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO PREDOMINATELY MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF  IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE IN SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE TRANSITIONED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH WILL RUN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN FOG AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN
IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE WATERS.  THE WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER
SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE SAT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 041604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST
AREAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE ALSO TRANSITIONED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH
MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHALLENGING SET UP FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY AFFECT THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF ALL
BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTER ISLANDS AND COAST AND
THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF EVEN BROUGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS
FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WITH THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY), AND IF THE NW TREND CONTINUES
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE. PROBABLY THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG THE COAST. WILL BEEF UP THE
POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL HAVE AROUND 2"
OF SNOW IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST THINKING FROM WPC. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
PRETTY QUICK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. A SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE
REGION FRI NIGHT AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. TEMPS FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD. IT MAY NOT BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT AS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER APPROACH LATER AT NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE SAT AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES INTO SW QUEBEC. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY, BUT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK OVERRUNNING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SAT NIGHT WITH AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUN MORNING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL. THE TIMING IS
NOT GREAT WITH THE FRONT COMING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RIDGING
BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WHAT HAPPENS FROM LATE
MON THROUGH WED REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW, BUT HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES
INTERACT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PHASING AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. A REVIEW OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS A LOT MORE
VARIABILITY IN THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
AMOUNTS AND DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FRI MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND ESPECIALLY AT KBHB IN A
PERIOD OF -SN. MAINLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO PREDOMINATELY MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF  IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE IN SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE TRANSITIONED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH WILL RUN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN FOG AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN
IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE WATERS.  THE WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER
SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE SAT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB





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