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000
FXUS61 KCAR 230212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST SO RAISED
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AIR REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAD TO LOWER
DEW POINTS. TEMPS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ISOLATED AREAS SO
KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO, AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS SO ADDED SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER, ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AREA.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST SO RAISED
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AIR REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAD TO LOWER
DEW POINTS. TEMPS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ISOLATED AREAS SO
KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO, AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS SO ADDED SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER, ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AREA.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 222257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH IS DIMINISHING.
MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 222257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH IS DIMINISHING.
MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222019
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE
OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW
MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR
ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN
BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222019
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE
OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW
MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR
ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN
BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 221751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK WARM FRONT W/SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE PER THE 16Z ANALYSIS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WAS ACROSS
FAR NW AND N MAINE. KEPT LIKELY POPS(60%) RIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DROPPED THE POPS BACK AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO
SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK WARM FRONT W/SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE PER THE 16Z ANALYSIS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WAS ACROSS
FAR NW AND N MAINE. KEPT LIKELY POPS(60%) RIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DROPPED THE POPS BACK AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO
SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 221338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NW ME
THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP AND OBS. KFVE COMING IN
W/3SM -SN. THE RAP/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM
850-500MBS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. 12Z UA ANALYSIS
SHOWED 50 KT JET RESIDING AT THE SAME LAYER AIDING IN SOME GOOD
FORCING. DECIDED TO RAMP THE POPS UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
60-70% AND ALSO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1+ INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MAINE BORDER. ATTM, TEMPERATURES WERE DOING WELL
W/LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NW ME
THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP AND OBS. KFVE COMING IN
W/3SM -SN. THE RAP/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM
850-500MBS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. 12Z UA ANALYSIS
SHOWED 50 KT JET RESIDING AT THE SAME LAYER AIDING IN SOME GOOD
FORCING. DECIDED TO RAMP THE POPS UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
60-70% AND ALSO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1+ INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MAINE BORDER. ATTM, TEMPERATURES WERE DOING WELL
W/LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 221051
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
551 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THERE`S FAIRLY DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE SO THERE`S PROBABLY NOT MUCH MAKING IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND ATTM, BUT DO EXPECT SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP THE
SURFACE LAYER A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, SKY, AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT CONDTIONS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND CHANGES WERE MAINLY
COSMETIC WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMING TO AN END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE
12Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE
ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE
W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND
BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMING TO AN END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE
12Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE
ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE
W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND
BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 220206
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220206
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 212035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTED BY A DECENT LLVL JET OF 50 KT. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM 925-700MBS. ANOTHER FEATURE TO CONSIDER IS
THE VEERING WINDS THROUGH 800MBS W/INCREASING SPEEDS. THIS IS MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND THE CROWN. THE DECISION WAS TO GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE THE POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS MEANS 50-60%
ON THE POPS AND AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. THE WX ELEMENT LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE OF THE SETUP.
THEREFORE, LEANED W/LIGHT SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THINKING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME BUT STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 212035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTED BY A DECENT LLVL JET OF 50 KT. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM 925-700MBS. ANOTHER FEATURE TO CONSIDER IS
THE VEERING WINDS THROUGH 800MBS W/INCREASING SPEEDS. THIS IS MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND THE CROWN. THE DECISION WAS TO GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE THE POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS MEANS 50-60%
ON THE POPS AND AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. THE WX ELEMENT LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE OF THE SETUP.
THEREFORE, LEANED W/LIGHT SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THINKING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME BUT STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211812
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:00 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AREA OF RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF MAINE. THIS AREA OF RETURNS
IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE AND THE SURFACE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST ENHANCED AREA WAS FROM
MOUNT KATAHDIN DIVING SE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE 12KM WRF MODEL DEPICTING THE AREA AND BEST
INSTABILITY. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED SB CAPES 50+ JOULES IN THE
AREA OF ENHANCED ECHOES. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BRING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP A BIT TO GO W/0.5" THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRYING WORKING THROUGH THE COLUMN BY 4 PM(20Z)
W/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
LLVL LAPSE RATES. 850-500MBS LAPSE RATES WERE RUNNING 6.5+ C/KM.
THESE LAPSE RATES ARE WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN THE SUMMER TIME AND
REFLECTIVE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211812
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:00 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AREA OF RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF MAINE. THIS AREA OF RETURNS
IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE AND THE SURFACE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST ENHANCED AREA WAS FROM
MOUNT KATAHDIN DIVING SE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE 12KM WRF MODEL DEPICTING THE AREA AND BEST
INSTABILITY. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED SB CAPES 50+ JOULES IN THE
AREA OF ENHANCED ECHOES. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BRING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP A BIT TO GO W/0.5" THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRYING WORKING THROUGH THE COLUMN BY 4 PM(20Z)
W/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
LLVL LAPSE RATES. 850-500MBS LAPSE RATES WERE RUNNING 6.5+ C/KM.
THESE LAPSE RATES ARE WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN THE SUMMER TIME AND
REFLECTIVE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 211446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF SLIDING SE
ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS W/THE OBS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(IE.KFVE). 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWED
AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING W/SB CAPE AROUND 60 AND FAIRLY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATE FOR EARLY WINTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS MATCH THE CAR RAOB AND
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE 12KM WRF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE HUL AN MLT REGION
BACK ACROSS MT. KATAHDIN THROUGH 2 PM W/NW FLOW COMING OFF OPEN
ST. LAWRENCE INDICATING THE STREAMER POTENTIAL. ANY SNOWFALL WILL
BE MINIMAL W/A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING THANKS TO THE LLVL LAPSE RATES.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 211446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF SLIDING SE
ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS W/THE OBS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(IE.KFVE). 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWED
AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING W/SB CAPE AROUND 60 AND FAIRLY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATE FOR EARLY WINTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS MATCH THE CAR RAOB AND
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE 12KM WRF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE HUL AN MLT REGION
BACK ACROSS MT. KATAHDIN THROUGH 2 PM W/NW FLOW COMING OFF OPEN
ST. LAWRENCE INDICATING THE STREAMER POTENTIAL. ANY SNOWFALL WILL
BE MINIMAL W/A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING THANKS TO THE LLVL LAPSE RATES.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
619 AM UPDATE...THE FINAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE ST LAWRENCE AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A NW WIND WILL
PICK UP THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID-
LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF MID-DECEMBER. MINOR
UPDATE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
619 AM UPDATE...THE FINAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE ST LAWRENCE AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A NW WIND WILL
PICK UP THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID-
LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF MID-DECEMBER. MINOR
UPDATE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1211 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...IT IS MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. A SURFACE
TROUGH NW OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO WESTERN MAINE TOWARD MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE WITH M/U 20S DOWNEAST. BY DAYBREAK LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW/MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HUL
FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAS
ACCELERATED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE TAIL END OF THE LINE
LINGERS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY BUT IS DIMINISHING. EXPECT A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT OVERNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
COME THROUGH AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCESS
MOVES THROUGH. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAS
ACCELERATED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE TAIL END OF THE LINE
LINGERS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY BUT IS DIMINISHING. EXPECT A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT OVERNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
COME THROUGH AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCESS
MOVES THROUGH. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201824
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE TEMPORARILY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS MAY HIT 35 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
FORT KENT AFTER 5 PM AND SWEEP TOWARDS CARIBOU AFTER 6 PM. THE
LINE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201824
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE TEMPORARILY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS MAY HIT 35 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
FORT KENT AFTER 5 PM AND SWEEP TOWARDS CARIBOU AFTER 6 PM. THE
LINE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE MAY SET UP AND CREATE TEMPORARILY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MUST LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 201526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE MAY SET UP AND CREATE TEMPORARILY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MUST LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
621 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
621 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWING UP A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING. IN FACT THE HRRR AND RUC NOW HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MAINE AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MAIN UPDATE WAS
TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND TO BUMP UP THE POPS
A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...THE KCBW (HODGDON, MAINE) RADAR WENT DOWN AROUND 0100
EST THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO
SERVICE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 200739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS




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