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000
FXUS61 KCAR 312237
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
637 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...SNOW AND WIND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
637 PM UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS EVE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. DUAL SFC LOWS
TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND NEAR THE GRAND STRAND
SAT MORNING. CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET TONIGHT AND THEN THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE
SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT A WEAK MESO LOW HAD DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COUNTY COAST BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THAT REGION.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS STILL GOING TOO COLD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEAST WIND WILL OFFSET AND SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND
MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY, THE FIRST WAVE LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE DOWNEAST
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS BY
LATER MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS WARMER AIR IN THE LLVLS WILL
PUSH ONSHORE AND BLYR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 32F.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES HOLD AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO COOLDOWN
ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE AREAL
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND WEST AND MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR DOWNEAST LOCALS
NORTH INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL HEADING INTO THE EVENING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE RAIN OR A MIX WILL LIKELY HOLD ON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE MAIN LOW.

AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG 500 MB MOVES
NORTH, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND BE
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM WITH
THIS UPDATE...WEIGHTING THE FORECAST A LITTLE HEAVIER TOWARD THE
NAM AS IT LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE SHARPER GRADIENT OF QPF BETTER
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT FOR SUNDAY
MORNING SNOW PICKS UP AND MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX IN AT TIMES OVER
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TOWARD WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING IN THE CWA, A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE PRECISE TRACK, WHICH IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY
CERTAIN, WILL IMPACT WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW SET UP AND
WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT A SWATH OF
AT LEAST 7 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN THE NORTH AND UP TO 45
MPH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES WHEN COMBINED WITH WET SNOW BUILDING UP ON TREES.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT W/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: MAINLY IFR/LIFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO SNOW, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON W/THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON HITTING 35 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS W/HIGHTS APPROACHING 8-10 FT BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME SUNDAY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SUNDAY. WE ALSO EXPECT
SEAS RISING INTO THE 9-13 FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 312237
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
637 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...SNOW AND WIND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
637 PM UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS EVE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. DUAL SFC LOWS
TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND NEAR THE GRAND STRAND
SAT MORNING. CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET TONIGHT AND THEN THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE
SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT A WEAK MESO LOW HAD DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COUNTY COAST BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THAT REGION.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS STILL GOING TOO COLD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEAST WIND WILL OFFSET AND SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND
MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY, THE FIRST WAVE LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE DOWNEAST
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS BY
LATER MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS WARMER AIR IN THE LLVLS WILL
PUSH ONSHORE AND BLYR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 32F.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES HOLD AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO COOLDOWN
ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE AREAL
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND WEST AND MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR DOWNEAST LOCALS
NORTH INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL HEADING INTO THE EVENING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE RAIN OR A MIX WILL LIKELY HOLD ON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE MAIN LOW.

AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG 500 MB MOVES
NORTH, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND BE
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM WITH
THIS UPDATE...WEIGHTING THE FORECAST A LITTLE HEAVIER TOWARD THE
NAM AS IT LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE SHARPER GRADIENT OF QPF BETTER
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT FOR SUNDAY
MORNING SNOW PICKS UP AND MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX IN AT TIMES OVER
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TOWARD WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING IN THE CWA, A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE PRECISE TRACK, WHICH IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY
CERTAIN, WILL IMPACT WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW SET UP AND
WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT A SWATH OF
AT LEAST 7 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN THE NORTH AND UP TO 45
MPH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES WHEN COMBINED WITH WET SNOW BUILDING UP ON TREES.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT W/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: MAINLY IFR/LIFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO SNOW, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON W/THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON HITTING 35 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS W/HIGHTS APPROACHING 8-10 FT BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME SUNDAY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SUNDAY. WE ALSO EXPECT
SEAS RISING INTO THE 9-13 FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 312036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
436 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...SNOW AND WIND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET TONIGHT AND THEN THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE
SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT A WEAK MESO LOW HAD DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COUNTY COAST BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THAT REGION.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS STILL GOING TOO COLD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEAST WIND WILL OFFSET AND SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND
MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY, THE FIRST WAVE LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE DOWNEAST
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS BY
LATER MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS WARMER AIR IN THE LLVLS WILL
PUSH ONSHORE AND BLYR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 32F.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES HOLD AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO COOLDOWN
ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE AREAL
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND WEST AND MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR DOWNEAST LOCALS
NORTH INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL HEADING INTO THE EVENING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE RAIN OR A MIX WILL LIKELY HOLD ON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE MAIN LOW.

AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG 500 MB MOVES
NORTH, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND BE
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM WITH
THIS UPDATE...WEIGHTING THE FORECAST A LITTLE HEAVIER TOWARD THE
NAM AS IT LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE SHARPER GRADIENT OF QPF BETTER
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT FOR SUNDAY
MORNING SNOW PICKS UP AND MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX IN AT TIMES OVER
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TOWARD WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING IN THE CWA, A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE PRECISE TRACK, WHICH IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY
CERTAIN, WILL IMPACT WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW SET UP AND
WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT A SWATH OF
AT LEAST 7 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN THE NORTH AND UP TO 45
MPH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES WHEN COMBINED WITH WET SNOW BUILDING UP ON TREES.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT W/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: MAINLY IFR/LIFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO SNOW, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON W/THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON HITTING 35 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS W/HIGHTS APPROACHING 8-10 FT BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME SUNDAY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SUNDAY. WE ALSO EXPECT
SEAS RISING INTO THE 9-13 FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311822
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
222 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...SNOW AND WIND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AS
THE 17Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A MESO LOW MOVING NE JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE NOTED TO SPRING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THEREFORE CARRIED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS INDICATING COOLER READINGS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WAS TO EXTEND THE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER S PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE BOTH DOING
WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WAS TO EXTEND THE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER S PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE BOTH DOING
WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 311018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL
SEE SOME SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE
GUIDANCE SPITS OUT A BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LAYER AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310846
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
446 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LAYER
AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
442 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LAYER
AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA. THE UPSHOT
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR
NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL RUN BEFORE
COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH THIS EVENT
WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH WET SNFL ON
TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES BY SUN
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310451
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS
THE NORTH, AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MAINE. HAVE THEREFORE UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS, AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD CLEARING OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY AS DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH AT BANGOR IS
52.3 DEGREES...WHICH IS 4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT HAS BEEN THE
WARMEST OCTOBER SINCE 1968.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 310123
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
923 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
923 PM UPDATE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS TRAPPED BETWEEN
4-6K FT AGL. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH A
SATURATED LAYER AROUND 6K FT AGL WITH GOOD DRYING EVIDENT ABOVE
THAT LAYER. THE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP/DISSIPATED IN SOME SPOTS
DOWN EAST...BUT ARE HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED DRYING OF THE AIR
MASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF THE CLOUDS
HOLD TILL MORNING THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM IN THE FAR
NORTH. WILL TWEAK THEM UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NOT ALL THAT MUCH
AS SOME CLEARING IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH AT BANGOR IS
52.3 DEGREES...WHICH IS 4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT HAS BEEN THE
WARMEST OCTOBER SINCE 1968.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302222
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
622 PM UPDATE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND MAKE FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT.
THERE ARE STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 6K
FT AGL ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST MAINE. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
REGIME WITH MANY AREAS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDTIONS AND TO SLOW THE CLEARING SOME IN THE
NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302021
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
421 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE EXCEPTION FOR KBGR THIS AFTERNOON AS A TEMPO OF MVFR WILL
BE THERE THROUGH 23Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS.
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301623
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS DOWN TO REFLECT DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED WIND FIELD UP A BIT USING THE
LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE WHICH IS MATCHING THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH, LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GENTILE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301623
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS DOWN TO REFLECT DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED WIND FIELD UP A BIT USING THE
LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE WHICH IS MATCHING THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH, LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GENTILE/HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO GO W/MORE CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA BASED 12Z CAR
SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP RH IN THE LLVLS(BELOW 700MBS). STILL
EXPECTED NW WINDS TO KEEP THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/LESS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH,
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
635 AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE FOG WORDING. NO SITES ARE REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
THE MOMENT, AND WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE, FEEL THAT FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH,
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
635 AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE FOG WORDING. NO SITES ARE REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
THE MOMENT, AND WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE, FEEL THAT FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH,
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300815
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
415 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF
MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT
OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE
UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH, LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300443
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY EXITING DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE
TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN MAINE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCAR 300110
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
910 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
910 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE DOWN EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 06Z
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE
TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN MAINE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE LIFTING
NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOR THE
MOST PART LIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10" DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF
PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. AREAS
OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE...WITH THE STRATUS DECK
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND AT FRENCHVILLE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CLIMATE...CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291914
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291746
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
146 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THE LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL
BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT STORM TRACK...THE POTENTIAL OF
SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...KEPT FOG FOR THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WENT W/PATCHY FOG FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE COOLER AIR AT THE
SFC. AREA OF SHOWERS W/FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG SOME
W/VSBYS IMPROVING. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST
OBS. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RADAR LOOP SHOWING AND
AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE
RAP AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WELL. QPF WAS ADJUSTED AS
WELL USING THE ACTUAL OBS FROM 12-18Z.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION TO AN END. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD TODAY, AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. THERE`S NOT A REALLY COLD AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT, SO TONIGHT`S LOWS AREN`T EXPECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY COLDER AND RELATIVELY DRY AS CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CNTRL CAN. PDS OF BKN-OVC SC CAN BE XPCTD MSLY ACROSS
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS TM. DESPITE THIS BEING A COLDER AIR
MASS...HI TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AVG...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE THU NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS IF SKIES CLR. CLDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE W LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT AS THE MAIN S/WV
FROM DIGGING SE FROM S CNTRL CAN MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN LATE TNGT WAS FURTHER W WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...BUT STILL A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE 00Z
DTMNSTC ECMWF RUN...WHICH STILL BRINGS THE LOW TOWARD WRN NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH MUCH MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION. FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES... WE BLEND THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS
LIKELY POPS TO ERN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE AND
MSLY CHC POPS OVR THE W. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
00Z ECMWF...SIG TO HVY SNFL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND PTNS
OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FACT WPC PREFERS A MORE ERN TRACK AT THIS
TM AND THE EARLINESS OF SEASON...IT WOULD BE RISKY TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL TO STRONGLY ATTM.

IN ANY EVENT...FOLLOWING THIS STORM...FAIR BUT...COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. AFT A SLACKENING
OF WINDS MON NGT...CLDS WILL IN INCREASE ON TUE WITH A CHC OF
SHWRS LATE TUE AFTN INTO WED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. ANY TERMINALS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
(PQI/CAR/HUL) WILL DROP TO IFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN SO TIL
18Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 03Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THU THRU FRI ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PDS OF HI MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR LATER SAT INTO SUN IN RN AND SN
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRES MOVG NNE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
OTHERWISE, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WAVES 3 TO AROUND 4 FEET.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE ERLY THU MORN
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE...NO HDLNS XPCTD UNTIL
LATER SAT THRU SUN NGT WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ATTM...
WE ONLY SHOW STRONG SCA WINDS AND SEAS ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS CLOSER
TO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SE ME...WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVR THE WATERS FOR THESE PDS...WITH
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WRNGS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1037 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL
TODAY.RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR THE LATE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
EXACT STORM TRACK...THE POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM
LATE THIS WEEKEND IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...ADDED FOG FOR EVERYWHERE THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE
LAST 3 HRLY OBS AND LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP RH IN LLVLS.
DECIDED TO CARRY THE FOG THROUGH 16Z(12 PM).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED VERY
NEAR HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. A BAND OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT DOES
LIKEWISE. WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TODAY, IT
WILL BE BRIEF WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY REMAINING DRY. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS. SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD TODAY, AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THERE`S NOT A REALLY COLD
AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO TONIGHT`S LOWS AREN`T
EXPECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY COLDER AND RELATIVELY DRY AS CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CNTRL CAN. PDS OF BKN-OVC SC CAN BE XPCTD MSLY ACROSS
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS TM. DESPITE THIS BEING A COLDER AIR
MASS...HI TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AVG...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE THU NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS IF SKIES CLR. CLDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE W LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT AS THE MAIN S/WV
FROM DIGGING SE FROM S CNTRL CAN MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN LATE TNGT WAS FURTHER W WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...BUT STILL A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE 00Z
DTMNSTC ECMWF RUN...WHICH STILL BRINGS THE LOW TOWARD WRN NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH MUCH MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION. FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES... WE BLEND THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS
LIKELY POPS TO ERN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE AND
MSLY CHC POPS OVR THE W. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
00Z ECMWF...SIG TO HVY SNFL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND PTNS
OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FACT WPC PREFERS A MORE ERN TRACK AT THIS
TM AND THE EARLINESS OF SEASON...IT WOULD BE RISKY TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL TO STRONGLY ATTM.

IN ANY EVENT...FOLLOWING THIS STORM...FAIR BUT...COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. AFT A SLACKENING
OF WINDS MON NGT...CLDS WILL IN INCREASE ON TUE WITH A CHC OF
SHWRS LATE TUE AFTN INTO WED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. ANY TERMINALS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
(PQI/CAR/HUL) WILL DROP TO IFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN SO TIL
18Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 03Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THU THRU FRI ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PDS OF HI MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR LATER SAT INTO SUN IN RN AND SN
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRES MOVG NNE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
OTHERWISE, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WAVES 3 TO AROUND 4 FEET.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE ERLY THU MORN
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE...NO HDLNS XPCTD UNTIL
LATER SAT THRU SUN NGT WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ATTM...
WE ONLY SHOW STRONG SCA WINDS AND SEAS ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS CLOSER
TO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SE ME...WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVR THE WATERS FOR THESE PDS...WITH
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WRNGS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 291015
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL
TODAY.RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR THE LATE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
EXACT STORM TRACK...THE POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM
LATE THIS WEEKEND IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD FOG
WORDING TO THE FORECAST. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE 1 TO 2
MILES. WHILE THE VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY DROP TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES,
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. NORTHERN AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING SOME FOG, BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT AS DOWNSTATE. OTHER THAN THE FOG, THE FORECAST IS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED VERY
NEAR HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. A BAND OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT DOES
LIKEWISE. WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TODAY, IT
WILL BE BRIEF WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY REMAINING DRY. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS. SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD TODAY, AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THERE`S NOT A REALLY COLD
AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO TONIGHT`S LOWS AREN`T
EXPECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY COLDER AND RELATIVELY DRY AS CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CNTRL CAN. PDS OF BKN-OVC SC CAN BE XPCTD MSLY ACROSS
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS TM. DESPITE THIS BEING A COLDER AIR
MASS...HI TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AVG...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE THU NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS IF SKIES CLR. CLDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE W LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT AS THE MAIN S/WV
FROM DIGGING SE FROM S CNTRL CAN MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN LATE TNGT WAS FURTHER W WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...BUT STILL A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE 00Z
DTMNSTC ECMWF RUN...WHICH STILL BRINGS THE LOW TOWARD WRN NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH MUCH MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION. FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES... WE BLEND THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS
LIKELY POPS TO ERN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE AND
MSLY CHC POPS OVR THE W. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
00Z ECMWF...SIG TO HVY SNFL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND PTNS
OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FACT WPC PREFERS A MORE ERN TRACK AT THIS
TM AND THE EARLINESS OF SEASON...IT WOULD BE RISKY TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL TO STRONGLY ATTM.

IN ANY EVENT...FOLLOWING THIS STORM...FAIR BUT...COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. AFT A SLACKENING
OF WINDS MON NGT...CLDS WILL IN INCREASE ON TUE WITH A CHC OF
SHWRS LATE TUE AFTN INTO WED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. ANY TERMINALS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
(PQI/CAR/HUL) WILL DROP TO IFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN SO TIL
18Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 03Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THU THRU FRI ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PDS OF HI MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR LATER SAT INTO SUN IN RN AND SN
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRES MOVG NNE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
OTHERWISE, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WAVES 3 TO AROUND 4 FEET.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE ERLY THU MORN
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE...NO HDLNS XPCTD UNTIL
LATER SAT THRU SUN NGT WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ATTM...
WE ONLY SHOW STRONG SCA WINDS AND SEAS ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS CLOSER
TO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SE ME...WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVR THE WATERS FOR THESE PDS...WITH
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WRNGS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
455 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL
TODAY.RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR THE LATE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
EXACT STORM TRACK...THE POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM
LATE THIS WEEKEND IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED VERY NEAR HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW
YORK. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE FRONT DOES LIKEWISE. WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL LIKELY SEE
RAIN TODAY, IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY
REMAINING DRY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO
AN END. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS. SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD TODAY, AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THERE`S NOT A REALLY COLD
AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO TONIGHT`S LOWS AREN`T
EXPECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY COLDER AND RELATIVELY DRY AS CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CNTRL CAN. PDS OF BKN-OVC SC CAN BE XPCTD MSLY ACROSS
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS TM. DESPITE THIS BEING A COLDER AIR
MASS...HI TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AVG...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE THU NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS IF SKIES CLR. CLDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE W LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT AS THE MAIN S/WV
FROM DIGGING SE FROM S CNTRL CAN MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN LATE TNGT WAS FURTHER W WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...BUT STILL A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE 00Z
DTMNSTC ECMWF RUN...WHICH STILL BRINGS THE LOW TOWARD WRN NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH MUCH MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION. FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES... WE BLEND THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS
LIKELY POPS TO ERN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE AND
MSLY CHC POPS OVR THE W. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
00Z ECMWF...SIG TO HVY SNFL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND PTNS
OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FACT WPC PREFERS A MORE ERN TRACK AT THIS
TM AND THE EARLINESS OF SEASON...IT WOULD BE RISKY TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL TO STRONGLY ATTM.

IN ANY EVENT...FOLLOWING THIS STORM...FAIR BUT...COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. AFT A SLACKENING
OF WINDS MON NGT...CLDS WILL IN INCREASE ON TUE WITH A CHC OF
SHWRS LATE TUE AFTN INTO WED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. ANY TERMINALS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
(PQI/CAR/HUL) WILL DROP TO IFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN SO TIL
18Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 03Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THU THRU FRI ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PDS OF HI MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR LATER SAT INTO SUN IN RN AND SN
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRES MOVG NNE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
OTHERWISE, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WAVES 3 TO AROUND 4 FEET.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE ERLY THU MORN
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE...NO HDLNS XPCTD UNTIL
LATER SAT THRU SUN NGT WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ATTM...
WE ONLY SHOW STRONG SCA WINDS AND SEAS ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS CLOSER
TO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SE ME...WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVR THE WATERS FOR THESE PDS...WITH
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WRNGS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL
TODAY.RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR THE LATE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
EXACT STORM TRACK...THE POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM
LATE THIS WEEKEND IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED VERY NEAR HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW
YORK. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE FRONT DOES LIKEWISE. WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL LIKELY SEE
RAIN TODAY, IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY
REMAINING DRY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO
AN END. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS. SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD TODAY, AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THERE`S NOT A REALLY COLD
AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO TONIGHT`S LOWS AREN`T
EXPECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY COLDER AND RELATIVELY DRY AS CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CNTRL CAN. PDS OF BKN-OVC SC CAN BE XPCTD MSLY ACROSS
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS TM. DESPITE THIS BEING A COLDER AIR
MASS...HI TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AVG...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE THU NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS IF SKIES CLR. CLDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE W LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT AS THE MAIN S/WV
FROM DIGGING SE FROM S CNTRL CAN MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN LATE TNGT WAS FURTHER W WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...BUT STILL A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE 00Z
DTMNSTC ECMWF RUN...WHICH STILL BRINGS THE LOW TOWARD WRN NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH MUCH MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION. FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES... WE BLEND THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS
LIKELY POPS TO ERN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE AND
MSLY CHC POPS OVR THE W. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
00Z ECMWF...SIG TO HVY SNFL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND PTNS
OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FACT WPC PREFERS A MORE ERN TRACK AT THIS
TM AND THE EARLINESS OF SEASON...IT WOULD BE RISKY TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL TO STRONGLY ATTM.

IN ANY EVENT...FOLLOWING THIS STORM...FAIR BUT...COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. AFT A SLACKENING
OF WINDS MON NGT...CLDS WILL IN INCREASE ON TUE WITH A CHC OF
SHWRS LATE TUE AFTN INTO WED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. ANY TERMINALS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
(PQI/CAR/HUL) WILL DROP TO IFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN SO TIL
18Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 03Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
OTHERWISE, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WAVES 3 TO AROUND 4 FEET.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290516
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
116 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL DRAG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIGGER STORY WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL DRAG COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS AS PER LATEST MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM AND OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DRAG
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT ALL. THE EURO BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN THE GFS DOES. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND BEGIN TO TREK NORTH
AND EAST. BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING THE EURO HAS THE SYSTEM JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES FURTHER EAST. OBVIOUSLY...THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD
HAVE THE MOST IMPACT. IT IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT THOUGH AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/ FOISY
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FOISY
MARINE...FOISY





000
FXUS61 KCAR 290044
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
844 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL DRAG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIGGER STORY WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL DRAG COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
---715PM UPDATE---
NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES IN GETTING CURRENT MODEL AND ANALYSIS DATA INTO THE
FORECAST SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT AN
UPDATE WOULD IMPROVE THE CURRENT FORECAST. RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM AND OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DRAG
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT ALL. THE EURO BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN THE GFS DOES. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND BEGIN TO TREK NORTH
AND EAST. BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING THE EURO HAS THE SYSTEM JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES FURTHER EAST. OBVIOUSLY...THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD
HAVE THE MOST IMPACT. IT IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT THOUGH AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...POHL
SHORT TERM...POHL
LONG TERM...POHL
AVIATION...POHL
MARINE...POHL





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